The seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of housing starts was 197,300 units in March 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

Seasonally adjusted annual rate estimates of housing start activity were also revised up for January and February². This resulted in month-over-month gains of 7.5 per cent in January (189,000 units), 6 per cent in February (200,400 units), and a slight decrease of 1.5 per cent in March.

“The moderation in March housing starts was due to a decrease in the volatile multiple starts segment. Helping to offset this was an increase in singles starts as well as more activity in rural areas,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 4.2 per cent to 175,200 units in March. Urban multiple starts decreased by 15.2 per cent to 77,500 units while single urban starts increased by 6.9 per cent to 97,700 units.

March’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 13.5 per cent in Quebec and by 7.3 per cent in the Prairie region, but decreased by 16.3 per cent in British Columbia, by 15.5 per cent in Ontario, and by 8 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 22,100 units in March³.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

The slackness in the resale market has directly impacted the new home market as has the slowing economy. Single-detached starts will fall to 160 units in 2009 and 170 in 2010, as the market comes more into line with long term demographic requirements. CMHC expects 30 row, condominium and apartment starts in 2009 and another 55 in 2010. Relatively tight rental market conditions and reasonable take up of condominium units will result in some of this activity over the next 18 months.

As Figure 2 indicates, there has been improvement in household incomes in Thunder Bay and with required income being more or less flat, affordability has improved. Next year, with home prices and incomes rising modestly, homeownership should remain an affordable option and therefore demand should strengthen slightly.

After rising 4.3 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively in 2007 and 2008, the New Home Price Index for Sudbury-Thunder Bay will rise in 2009 and 2010 but only modestly given the slowdown in demand.

Vacancy rates have come down steadily since 1998 in Thunder Bay while two bedroom rents are the lowest amongst other centres in Ontario. Lack of new supply and healthy demand due to strong enrolment numbers at Lakehead University and Confederation College contribute to the demand picture, not-to-mention in-migration from Northwestern Ontario from retirees and education and/or job seekers. CMHC expects the vacancy rate to fall again in 2009 to 1.6 per cent before increasing to 2.0 in 2010 as resale market activity picks up bringing households out of rental housing into homeownership. Rents should escalate in 2009 and 2010 given continued strong demand for rental accommodation.

Developers have plans for condominium in 2010 and beyond. A steady supply condominium units coming onto the market over the last twenty years has given Thunder Bay a nice mix of housing. This type and tenure of housing gives the city some allure, especially as empty nesters from the region look to retire to this city. Pricing will be very important as this product is primarily targeted at empty nesters who do not typically want to pay more for a condo than what they obtain from the sale of the family home or other homeownership unit.

After hitting a record high in 2008, Thunder Bay sales have fallen 18 per cent in 2009. July was the only month to register a year-over-year increase in sales. Sales will fall twenty per cent in 2009 and CMHC estimates a relatively small six per cent increase next year to 1,400 sales. Expect a gradually improving economy as low mortgage rates will positively impact the market next year.

The shortage of active listings in the Thunder Bay existing home market will exert pressure on prices. Although sales are still reasonably solid given last year’s all-time record in the Thunder Bay market, the sales to active listings ratio is unquestionably in a strong balanced to seller’s market position. The supply- demand relationship will cause price appreciation to continue barring some unforeseen economic shock. Watch for average prices to rise four per cent in 2009 and another four per cent in 2010.

After two years of sharp declines, and coming off from a decade of annual housing starts largely above demographic needs, new housing construction is set to stabilize in 2009. Amid emerging positive signs in both the economic and financial fronts, total residential construction in the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) will rise by 5.2 per cent this year, with 707 new starts.

In addition to the boost to homeownership demand due to low interest rates, the prospects for increased spill-over demand from a recovering resale market will likely result in a faster year-over-year pace of starts during the first half of 2010. As a result, total starts next year will reach 690 units for a slight 2.4 per cent decrease, thus stabilizing construction activity at a pace more in line with household formation.

Coming off from a historically challenging economic environment, the short-term forecast for Kingston’s residential construction industry remains for the most part optimistic. The substantial monetary easing and fiscal stimulus measures in Canada’s Economic Action Plan will improve economic fundamentals. This will renew household’s appetite for big-ticket items in the face of low interest rates.

While spill-over demand from the resale into the new home market typically takes time to fully materialize, Kingston’s new home market looks ripe for a modest recovery. First, new listings for resale have declined substantially from last year, thus lowering supply competition. Second, the level of unabsorbed new home inventories has returned below the long-term average. Finally, the year- to-date pipeline of properties under construction is substantially lower than for the same period last year, which means that there are resources available for future projects.

After near record years in new home construction, 2009 residential new home construction will grow below demographic needs in Ottawa Census Metropolitan Area. Total housing starts will close this year at 5,125 units or 27 per cent lower than in 2008 and well below the ten year average for the region. Tight credit conditions for high density development will delay construction in the Capital, particularly for condo apartments. However, increasing strength is expected next year as construction responds to growing demand for housing. In 2010 foundations will rise, growing slightly above population needs with 5,900 new units. Spill-over demand coming from the existing home market combined with low levels of construction this year and declining new home inventories will set the foundations for a strong rebound in New Home construction in the coming year.

Although total starts are expected to soften in 2009, single-detached homes will be declining the least. Single- detached starts will remain at close to 40 per cent of total construction or 2,250 units. The lowest interest rate seen in almost 60 years coupled with more affordable dwellings in Ottawa’s outskirts will result in decreasing monthly mortgage payments.
Single-detached new construction will pick up slightly through 2010. The Monetary and Fiscal stimulus coming from Canada’s Economic Action Plan will further boost the purchase of big ticketed items in the Capital City. Ottawa’s home market continues to be strong, as single-detached starts remain a good barometer of the strength of the new residential construction market.

The average price for new single- detached homes in 2009 will post a similar level of growth to last year and will stand at around $418,400 for a 2.3 per cent increase. Although the underlying increase in price in 2010 will be flat, a greater proportion of more expensive homes will drive the average price higher by 5.7 per cent.

Semi-detached and townhomes will provide an alternative to the single- detached home dwellings when their price increases in 2010. As a result, expect semi-detached and townhomes sales to increase by 10 and 11 per cent next year respectively.

The CMHC forecast calls for 900 single-detached starts in 2009 followed by 1,000 in 2010. The 2009 production will be the lowest number of single starts since 2005 when there were 751 foundations poured. The decline in single-detached starts in 2009 compared to 2008 is due to a number of factors, including managing a build-up in the supply of new housing units, consumer resistance to price escalation, and heightened competition from resale housing. Reduced in-migration and a moderating economy in 2009 have also played a role in this market adjustment.

At mid-year, single-detached starts were 65 per cent below the historically high 2008 figure for the same period. The slowdown in new construction has allowed the inventory of complete and unabsorbed units to decline and a stronger second half of production is expected. At the end of August, single-detached starts had recorded two consecutive months of year-over-year increases. Though there has been a recent uptick in starts activity, CMHC expects builders will limit production to prevent a rise in inventory.

In terms of total supply, there were more than 800 single-detached units under construction or completed but unoccupied at the end of August. While this is the third highest supply on record for the month of August, total supply has been in decline, on a year-over-year basis, since December 2008.

The bulk of single units in supply are those in various stages of construction. The units under construction have been declining on a year-over-year basis since October 2008. The decline in the units under construction figure is due to slower starts since June 2008. As stated, only recently have starts increased on a year-over-year basis.

The number of single units that are completed and unoccupied now lies at 142 units, up from 115 one year earlier. Though higher than last year at this time, the completed and unoccupied count has seen monthly declines since December 2008 when inventory peaked at 244 units. Competition from the resale market may be having an impact on new single absorption. Industry sources state that investors who purchased new homes in the previous two years are now creating competition for homebuilders by listing their homes on the resale market at competitive prices.

To the end of August, there have been 757 single absorptions in 2009 compared to 819 at this time in 2008. Average absorption now stands at 95 units monthly compared to the 110 units absorbed monthly in 2008.

Following a 56 per cent decline in 2008, total housing starts across the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) are on pace to decrease by another 24 per cent this year to 5,000 units. This will represent the lowest level of activity for the region’s home builders since 1997. While single- detached construction has staged a modest recovery since the summer, a continued downturn in the multi- family sector will hold down this year’s numbers. In 2010, a sustained improvement in single starts combined with a moderate rebound in multiples will boost total starts by 29 per cent to 6,450 units. While representing a sizable gain over this year’s volumes, total starts next year remain a fraction of the 10,600+ units started on average during the 10 year period 1999-to-2008.

Single-detached starts increased by 14 per cent during the first nine months of 2009 but the improvements have come on gradually as the year has progressed. Activity levels were down by 39 per cent year-over-year at the end of the first quarter but have generally exceeded last year’s production since then. Price reductions, various incentives, and low mortgage rates have helped to bolster demand in 2009. This trend should continue for the balance of 2009, with annual production nearing the 3,200 unit mark. This will represent an increase of 22.5 per cent over 2008 but will still be well below activity levels reported over the past decade. Look for these gains to continue in 2010, with single starts of around 4,200 units. The tepid outlook for employment growth will temper the rate of increase going into 2010. Inventory levels, including show homes, peaked in August 2008 and have been trending downward throughout much of the past year. As shown in Figure 2, the show home component of inventory has started to move upward as builders ramp-up marketing efforts. The inventory of complete and unabsorbed spec homes, meanwhile, has trended to its lowest levels since September 2006.

Statistics Canada’s New House Price Index (NHPI) is forecasted by CMHC to decrease by 10.5 per cent this year before staging a two per cent improvement in 2010. These price changes have begun to show up in CMHC’s market absorption surveys but the overall average absorbed price has held up surprising well in 2009. To the end of August, the average absorbed price increased this year nine per cent to $545,327. While units priced under $400,000 and over $600,000 have gained market share this year, mid-range product selling between $400-600,000 lost ground compared with last year.

CMHC forecasts an average absorbed single-detached price this year of close to $535,000, for a 4.5 per cent gain over 2008. The expected median value will be much lower as the impact of high-priced homes is less using this measure. In 2010, the absorbed average price will soften due to the lagged effect of when homes are priced (often before construction begins) and when they are captured in our survey (which is at completion). The pressure for higher negotiated selling prices will come from builders who had trimmed their margins over the past year in order to clear their unsold inventory. With better economic times ahead, land and labour costs as well as material prices such as lumber and concrete are expected to increase.

In-migration and low mortgage rates will lend
strength to the housing market this year and next. Residential construction is expected
to rebound in 2010 following declines in 2009, according to Canada Mortgage and
Housing Corporation’s (CMHC’s) Housing Market Outlook released today.
“Single starts in Charlottetown are expected to record an increase in 2010, while
multiple starts will slow slightly from the near record level of activity in 2009,” said Jason
Beaton, market analyst with CMHC in Prince Edward Island. Positive in-migration and
low interest rates will be supportive of housing demand in both 2009 and 2010. As a
result housing starts are expected to remain strong into 2010. Single-detached
construction will reach 275 units in 2010, while multiples construction will slow to 240
units.
Existing home sales are expected to decline this year before rebounding slightly in 2010.
Expect to see 550 units sell in 2009 and 575 units in 2010. The average price of an
existing home is expected to climb to $186,000 by the end of next year.
As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of
experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable
and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing
market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the
housing industry in making vital decisions.

Residential construction and existing home sales levels
in Halifax are expected to rebound in 2010 following declines in 2009, according to
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC’s) Housing Market Outlook
released today.
“New home construction in Halifax will rebound by 16 per cent in 2010,” said Matthew
Gilmore, senior market analyst with CMHC’s Atlantic Business Centre. “Employment
and wage levels have hit new record highs in 2009 while interest rates have been
historically low. These factors will be supportive of growth in the industry in 2010,”
Gilmore said.
Apartment-style construction will outpace other styles with 800 units expected to start in
2010 – an increase of 33 per cent.
Existing home sales will rebound by over six per cent in 2010. The average price of an
existing home is expected to climb by 2.5 per cent reaching $243,500 next year.
As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of
experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable
and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing
market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the
housing industry in making vital decisions.

A gradual recovery of the economy and improvement in labour market conditions will underlie a 14 per cent pick-up in housing starts forecast for the St. Catharines-Niagara CMA (hereinafter Niagara) in 2010. Housing starts will increase to 950 units from estimated 830 units in 2009 as empty-nester demand, low inventories
and low mortgage rates boost new construction in 2010.

The household formation rate, a key determinant of housing demand, has slowed given the more challenging economic climate. Moving forward, it will continue to be slow because of demographic factors, most notably the aging population. The slowing household formation rate will limit the potential for starts in the region in the medium term.

In 2010, builders will break ground on as many single-detached homes as in 2009. Growth next year is expected to be led by starts of townhouses. This will be due to demand from downsizing empty-nesters who will continue to be looking for bungalow townhouse condominiums. A typical profile of townhouses that are becoming increasingly popular with senior households is a one and a half storey two-bedroom home with about 1,500 sq. ft. These homes often have an open concept design, with a master bedroom, and a large kitchen and living room area on the main floor. However, some empty-nesters are finding it difficult to sell their current homes. The cohort of current move-up households (the baby-bust generation born between the mid 1960s to the late 1970s), which includes the prospective buyers of these homes, is relatively small. Also, their housing requirements are different from the needs of the current empty-nesters when they were move-up buyers 20 to 30 years ago. Consequently, some empty-nesters will be unable to sell at a price that allows them to buy the housing they prefer without additional financing and may opt to stay in their current home. Some choosing this option will also renovate. Retirees moving into the region, traditionally from the GTA, will buy many of the bungalow townhouse condos being built. Proceeds from the sale of their home will enable them to afford a new home in Niagara.

Despite lower new home demand in the late 2008 and early 2009, there was almost no build-up in inventories of unsold completed homes. Builders matched production to the lower demand, which was very different than the experience in the 1991 downturn. Entering 2010 with low inventory will mean that builders will respond to any increase in demand for new homes with increased production. As economy recovers, the currently well-supplied resale market will no longer offer a lot of choice or be sufficient to satiate housing demand. The new home market will feel a positive spill-over effect from the resale market. Also, relatively low mortgage rates expected to move up only slightly in 2010 which will create an environment that is supportive for rising housing demand next year.

Increasing costs of land and development charges will bump up the price of new homes especially in the northern municipalities of Niagara peninsula. The New Home Price Index (NHPI) for Niagara, which measures the prices at which builders sell new homes of equivalent quality, is projected to reverse and trend up modestly, after falling through most of 2009.

Housing starts in the Kitchener and Guelph Census Metropolitan Areas in 2010 will increase from the relatively low level recorded in 2009. In the Kitchener CMA, housing starts will reach 2,170 in 2010, up 12 per cent from the expected 1,930 starts in 2009. Housing starts in the Guelph CMA will increase by 16 per cent to 535 in 2010 from the forecast 460 starts in 2009. Slowly improving employment, more spill-over from the resale home market, low inventories and low mortgage rates will combine to push housing starts above the levels recorded in 2009. Starts of both single-detached and denser forms of housing will be up in 2010. Starts will move higher over the next few years, more in line with population growth and household formation.

Single-detached housing starts in the Kitchener CMA will increase by ten per cent to 1,100 homes, while Guelph CMA detached starts will grow by 10 per cent to 275 units. Although these increases in detached starts seem significant, starts will still be well below levels recorded in the first half of the decade. While the new construction market has been slow to react to the tighter resale market conditions after the first quarter of 2009, the expected spill-over demand from the resale home market will result in stronger 2010 starts. Mortgage rates will remain near historically low levels in 2010, although rising slowly throughout the year, and combined with little price growth for new detached homes, affordability will play a part in increased demand for detached homes. Inventories of new single-detached homes have not increased significantly, as was seen in the early 1990s. As a result, any demand for new detached homes must be met through new construction.