Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) today announced the six winners of CMHC’s Housing Studies Achievement Award. Six prizes of $10,000 — three at a master’s level and three at a doctoral level — were presented by Mr. Douglas Stewart, CMHC’s Vice President, Policy and Planning, at an awards event held today in Ottawa.

“CMHC is proud to honour Canadians whose work is at the forefront of helping us foster a better future for quality, affordable housing in this country. I want to congratulate this year’s winners of the CMHC Housing Studies Achievement Award for their important contributions,” said Mr. Stewart.

The CMHC Housing Studies Achievement Award program, held every second year, was originally created to commemorate CMHC’s 60^th anniversary in 2006 and the first winners were announced in November 2007. The academic work of the 2009 award recipients contributes to housing research and policy development in Canada, whether in social, economic, design or technical aspects of housing. In addition to paying tribute to the work of the award winners, CMHC is also acknowledging the work of four “honourable mentions” singled out for recognition by the expert panel of jurors reviewing submissions. Attached is a backgrounder profiling the work of the 2009 CMHC Housing Studies Achievement Award winners and Honourable Mentions.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities across the country. For more information, call 1-800-668-2642.

London, Ontario - Credit abdallahh, Flickr

The London Ontario rental vacancy rate has moved up to 3.9% in 2008 and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is predicting that the vacancy rate will rise to 4.2% in 2009. For a city the size of London Ontario, this means that a tenants market for rental units has returned to the London Ontario area.

It is good times now for tenants in London Ontario to find good rental accommodations at reasonable rents, as line-ups at landlord’s offices is over.

SLIGHT COOLING OFF OF THE LONDON RENTAL MARKET

The London rental market has cooled off slightly and the vacancy rose to 3.9% in 2008 from 3.6% in 2007. The average rent on rental units increased by 1.5% in 2008 form the 2007 rental rate figures, which was slower than the 2.6% increase in 2007, from the 2006 rental period.

The rental vacancy rate increased in the surrounding communities i.e. St. Thomas and Strathroy substantially, which affected the overall vacancy rates. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is predicting that the overall vacancy rate in London will increase to 4.0% for the period ending 2009.

SEVERAL REASONS FOR CONTINUED INCREASE IN VACANCY RATE

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report states that many factors have combined to increase the vacancy rate in London. Some of those factors include a surprising decrease in university students and huge unemployment increases. As well as the substantial increase in the creation of rental units, which increased to 836 units in 2008, versus 586 in 2007.

CONTINUED MODERATE RENT INCREASES

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report states that last fall in London Ontario, a one-bedroom apartment that used to rent for $554.00, plus utilities is now renting for $565.00, plus utilities, compared to the same period last year. A two-bedroom unit that rented last year for $625.00, plus utilities, is now renting for $645.00, which is approximately a 1.5% increase.

Government sources say that with these moderate increases, welfare recipients are not hard pressed to rent in London Ontario. Increased vacancy rates in this area of the province have caused rents to increase moderately for the same period last year. However, rent increases in purpose-built apartment rent units that were new, were more significant in most areas of the City of London Ontario.

RENTERS PREFER LARGER AND NEWER BUILDINGS

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report states that apartment buildings with excess of 100 units or more have the lowest average vacancy rate in London Ontario at 2.9%. Rental apartments constructed after 2000 are becoming popular and preferred by the London area tenants, specifically in the downtown core.

LONDON’S RENTAL AFFORDABILITY INDICATOR

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation affordability indicator will decline to 119 by year-end 2008, which indicates that the value of 100 suggests that 40% of the median income of rental households is necessary to rent a two bedroom apartment, well above the Canadian average.

NATIONAL VACANCY RATE DECREASED IN OCTOBER 2008

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reports that the vacancy rate in Canada’s 34 major centers decreased to 2.2% from 2.6% in October of 2008, for the same period the year before. Vacancy rates were as high as 14.6% in Windsor to a low of 0.3% in Vancouver and Abbotsford BC.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reports that the highest average monthly rent for a two bedroom apartment is in Calgary, Alberta with a monthly rental cost of $1,148.00 to a low of $543.00 in Sherbrooke, Quebec.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64403/64403_2008_A01.pdf

The Edmonton Alberta rental market is experiencing vacancy rate increases. In fact, the rental vacancy rate has increased substantially from 1.5% in 2007 to 2.4% in 2008.

It is tougher times for landlords in Edmonton Alberta to rent their units.

APARTMENT VACANCIES MOVE HIGHER IN 2008

Edmonton, Alberta - Credit Lana, Flickr

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported that the Edmonton Alberta area is experiencing an increased amount of vacancies in rental housing in all sectors. Much of this is attributed to migration out of the province of Alberta, which has seen over 1600 families leave the Edmonton Alberta area in 2008. CMHC attributes some of this up-turn in the vacancy rate to competition from secondary rental market of the units, and investor owned condominium apartment increases in 2008.

INCREASED SUPPLY OF PURPOSE-BUILT RENTAL UNITS

According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, private homeowners and investors in Edmonton Alberta have increased the rental housing stock by 21% for the first 10 months of 2008. This is caused a surplus of rental housing stock in the Edmonton Alberta area.

SECONDARY RENTAL MARKET IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT TO THE HOMEOWNER TO SUPPLEMENT THEIR INCOME DURING THIS WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report states that since there is a migration problem in Edmonton, and the unemployment rate is up 3.4%, a strong demand has occurred for rental units to be created by home owners, which is called the “secondary rental market”. Pressure is being excreted on the local municipality cities to relax their zoning and building codes to permit additional secondary rental units in private homes.

APARTMENT RENT INCREASES MODERATE IN 2008

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report states that last fall in Edmonton Alberta, a one-bedroom apartment that used to rent for $764.00 is now renting for $783.00 compared to the same period last year. A two-bedroom unit that rented last year for $744.00 are now renting for $762.00, which is approximately 25% increases.

Government sources say that with this increase cost, welfare recipients are hard pressed to rent anything in Edmonton Alberta.

INCENTIVES RETURN AS VACANCIES INCREASE

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report that in 2007, and then in 2008, landlords have started offering tenants incentives for the first time in 15 years to rent apartments. Incentives often include benefits such as one-month free rent, or 2-year leases (with fixed rental payments), extra appliances, free cable TV, or free parking and or high-speed Internet.

RENTAL AFFORDABILITY INDICATOR

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation affordability indicator indicates that the value of 100 suggests that 30% of the median income of rental households is necessary to rent a two bedroom apartment, well above the Canadian average.

NATIONAL VACANCY RATE DECREASED IN OCTOBER 2008

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reports that the vacancy rate in Canada’s 34 major centers decreased to 2.2% from 2.6% in October of 2008, for the same period the year before. Vacancy rates were as high as 14.6% in Windsor to a low of 0.3% in Kelowna BC.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reports that the highest average monthly rent for a two bedroom apartment is in Calgary, Alberta with a monthly rental cost of $1,148.00 to a low of $543.00 in Sherbrooke, Quebec.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64379/64379_2008_A01.pdf

Winnipeg - Credit jimj_wpg, Flickr

Winnipeg Manitoba has had a serious decrease in housing starts and is returning to the historical low levels of housing starts of years gone by and the housing starts are down 15%. CMHC is forecasting 2,875 units single-detached starts, 25 semi-detached units, 15 apartment condominium ownership units, and 20 apartment rental units, for a total of 2,935 housing starts for 2008. This will decrease by 700 units in 2009.

SINGLE-DETACHED FORMS OF HOUSING POISED FOR ANOTHER STRONG YEAR

This year Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that Winnipeg will surpass the housing start levels of 2006, and 2007 but pouring more than 1,925 foundations. However, in 2009 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be only 1,850 single-detached homes started. A modest 4% decrease from 2008.

WINNIPEG’S RESALE MARKET WILL BE MODERATE

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation states in its outlook report that after 6 years of consecutive double-digit price growth, the resale market in Winnipeg will balance itself off in 2009. In 2007, the average MLS price for a detached home is currently $200,000.00 in 2008 and we will see a 4% increase in 2009, to push the resale average price to $208,000.00.

WINNIPEG MOVING TO BALANCED MODERATE MARKET

As Winnipeg has experienced substantial price growth over the past 3 years, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be continued but moderate growth in 2009. However, in major commercial projects there will be over $7 billion worth of projects that are commencing in 2009 for Winnipeg and the surrounding areas, concentrated in Winnipeg.

MORTGAGE RATES

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predict that interest rates will decline by a further 25-50 basis points from their current levels in 2009. However, due to the cost of borrowing to the Canadian banks from the markets, the mortgage interest rate will marginally increase in the latter half of 2009, but not significantly enough to negatively affect the housing market in Winnipeg and surrounding areas.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64363/64363_2008_B02.pdf

The Big Nickel in Sudbury, Ontario - Credit "Smith", Flickr

Sudbury Ontario has had a serious increase in housing starts and is rising above the historical low levels of housing starts of years gone by. CMHC is forecasting 525 single-detached starts, 30 semi-detached units, 40 apartment condominium ownership units, and 120 apartment rental units, for a total of 715 housing starts for 2008. This will increase by 600 units in 2009.

DENSER FORMS OF CONSTRUCTION EXPECTED

CMHC expects the with a vacancy rate under 1% and no publicly assisted rental housing starts in the year 2008 or 2009, the type of new construction for new homes will be the low density form of housing, which will be the dominant type of new housing starts in the Greater Sudbury area.

SUDBURY RESALE MARKET EASES

Sales in Sudbury, from MLS, have been moving steadily in 2008. There are several contributing factors, the significant one is the peek that resale’s have seen in 2007 and 2008. Not to mention, that employment has now leveled off first time buyers are starting to evaporate from the Sudbury area. CMHC expects 2530 sales of resale homes in he year ending 2008, which would be 8.6% less than the same period last year.

Clearly the problem is supply and demand, which historically affects the growth and the volume of resale home sales.

SUDBURY MOVING TO BALANCED MARKET

Although there has been economic growth at moderate levels, over the same period last year, a stunning prediction was made by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation in that even though employment will be strong and there will be substantial population growth in Sudbury and surrounding areas in 2009. This will still only sustain moderate growth and the balancing of the market.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be continued growth in 2009 in major commercial projects with over $20 billion worth of projects that are commencing in 2009 for Sudbury and the surrounding areas, concentrated in the mining areas.

MORTGAGE RATES

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predict that interest rates will decline by a further 25-50 basis points from their current levels in 2009. However, due to the cost of borrowing to the Canadian banks from the markets, the mortgage interest rate will marginally increase in the latter half of 2009, but not significantly enough to negatively affect the housing market in Sudbury and surrounding areas.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64363/64363_2008_B02.pdf

London, Ontario - Credit b0ratDI, Flickr

London Ontario has had a small decrease in housing starts and is returning to the historical low levels of housing starts of years gone by and the housing starts are down 29%. CMHC is forecasting 732 units single-detached starts, 15 semi-detached units, 10 apartment condominium ownership units, and 10 apartment rental units, for a total of 767 housing starts for 2008. This will decrease by 400 units in 2009.

SINGLE-DETACHED FORMS OF HOUSING POISED FOR ANOTHER STRONG YEAR

This year Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that London Ontario will surpass the housing start levels of 2006, and 2007 by pouring more than 700 foundations. However, in 2009 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be only 400 single-detached homes started, a decrease of 29% from 2008.

LONDON’S RESALE MARKET WILL BE MODERATE

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation states in its outlook report that after 6 years of consecutive double-digit price growth, the resale market in London will balance itself off in 2009. In 2007, the average MLS price for a detached home is currently $205,000.00 in 2008 and we will see a 2.5% increase in 2009, to push the resale average price to $211,000.00.

LONDON MARKET TIPS INTO BALANCED CONDITION

As London Ontario has experienced substantial price growth over the past 3 years, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be continued but moderate growth in 2009. However, in major commercial projects there will be over $15 million worth of projects that are commencing in 2009 for London and the surrounding areas, concentrated in London Ontario.

MORTGAGE RATES

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predict that interest rates will decline by a further 25-50 basis points from their current levels in 2009. However, due to the cost of borrowing to the Canadian banks from the markets, the mortgage interest rate will marginally increase in the latter half of 2009, but not significantly enough to negatively affect the housing market in London and surrounding areas.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64327/64327_2008_B02.pdf

Kelowna, BC - Credit theeye, Flickr

The Kelowna British Columbia Housing Market in new home sales is taking a downturn from the record levels 2008. However, the housing market in Kelowna will start to recover in the latter part of 2009. The Canada Mortgage and Housing report that was released in the fourth quarter of 2008, shows a graph of the housing starts both ups and down in the Kelowna British Columbia market.

HOUSING STARTS DROP IN 2009

The Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation reported that housing starts will dip to 1,850 home in 2009. This reduction in housing starts will also cause the lot prices for new housing to drop from $235,000.00 to approximately $180,000.00 per lot commencing from the latter part 2009, which some premiums for Lake Valley lots with any sort of view for the Better Lake region.

With the demand that was previously high, the average time to build a detached home has increased over the past 8 years in Kelowna, from 4 months to just over 9 months. The average price for a new detached home in Kelowna B.C will reach $695,000.00, which is a 10% increase over 2008.

EXISTING HOME SALES STABILIZE IN 2009

The Kelowna British Columbia housing market, like other housing markets in Canada, experience extreme growth in 2007. However, there was a 1/3 decline in housing sales in the latter part of 2008. However, it is predicted in 2009 by Canada Housing Corporation that the sales will stabilize in 2009 and actually start increasing in the latter part of 2009.

ECONOMIC AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH MODERATE IN 2009

The economic and employment outlook for growth in the Kelowna British Columbia area is predicted to be moderate in 2009, by the Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation, in their fourth quarter report in 2008.

However, the incorporation of Westbank, and all other neighborhoods located on the west side on Lake Okanagan will generate substantial economic and employment growth throughout all of 2009. In fact, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that area employment in Kelowna B.C will grow by 3.5% in 2009, with new jobs being added in the high-tech, trade, healthcare, personal and other service related industry sectors.

Kelowna British Columbia is one of the few regions that is experiencing a shortage of workers, and is attempting to implement policies to encourage migration.

MORTGAGE RATES

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predict that interest rates will decline by a further 25-50 basis points from their current levels in 2009. However, due to the cost of borrowing to the Canadian banks from the markets, the mortgage interest rate will marginally increase in the latter half of 2009, but not significantly enough to negatively affect the housing market in Kelowna.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64359/64359_2008_B02.pdf

Vancouver, BC - Credits JMV, Flickr

The Vancouver and Abbotsford area of British Columbia starts a serious downturn in housing starts and is returning to the historical consistent levels of years gone by. The only bright spot will be the apartment condominium construction starts which will increase substantially in 2009. With declining existing home sales and rising home listings, you can expect a 20%-30% reduction in the average price of re-sale homes in 2009.

NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION HIGH BUT MODERATING

Vancouver New home starts were down 4% in 2008 for the same period in 2007 and there will be a further 18% drop in new home construction in 2009, with significant impact on this construction from the single detached home starts which will decline at a faster pace.

The majority of home builders will not be increasing their home inventories, but will be putting all projects on hold until the demand improves, especially in the higher priced ranged homes.

VANCOUVER RESALE MARKETS FAVOR BUYERS

Sales in metro Vancouver, from MLS, have been moving lower since the beginning of 2008. There are several contributing factors. The significant one is the high cost of home ownership with little demand. Not to mention, the first time buyers virtually evaporated from the Vancouver area, but used to be a good market to invest in for multi-residential investments, is now a less appealing option for investors.

Clearly the problem is supply and demand, which historically affects the growth and the value of home purchases.

HOUSING DEMAND MODERATES

Although there has been economic growth at moderate levels, over the same period last year, a surprising prediction by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is that employment will be strong and there will be substantial population growth in Vancouver and surrounding areas in 2009.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be continued growth in 2009 in major commercial projects with over $30 billion worth of projects that are commencing in 2009 for the main land/southwest development region of Vancouver.

MORTGAGE RATES

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predict that interest rates will decline by a further 25-50 basis points from their current levels in 2009. However, due to the cost of borrowing to the Canadian banks from the markets, the mortgage interest rate will marginally increase in the latter half of 2009, but not significantly enough to negatively affect the housing market in Vancouver and surrounding areas.

ABBOTSFORD: MODERATION IN THE ECONOMY WILL CONTINUE

Due to the moderating job growth in Abbotsford, the housing demand is decreasing rapidly, especially from first time buyers. Although the business climate remains strong in Abbottsford, further consumer and business bankruptcies are predicted to increase slightly. Total migration in Abbottsford is expected to be 2000 plus in 2009.

BUYERS CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN THE ABOTTSFORD

According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, resales in the Abbottsford area have declined in comparison to the high levels of last year. Quarter after quarter, sales figures are shrinking and the average MLS sale price will be at least 30% less than the year before.

Currently the average sale price of a single detached house in Abbottsford City proper is $450,000.00.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64363/64363_2008_B02.pdf

Housing Steady Through to 2009

Hamilton, Ontario - Credit D. Searles, Flickr

The Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area’s (hereafter referred to as Hamilton) housing market has performed relatively well, in both the resale and new home markets. A growing population thanks in part to a resurgence in net migration last year, and a growing job sector in emerging industries will keep the housing market healthy. However, the resale market is expected to trend towards the lower end of a sellers’ market this year as listings move higher and sales moderate in pace. As a result of more choice in the resale market, fewer new home starts are expected in Hamilton next year. The average price of both resale and new homes are expected to continue rising, though at a modest rate.

New Home Market – Fewer Starts in 2009

New home starts this year will climb nine per cent to 3,285 starts, due to increases in semi-detached, townhouse and apartment starts. Single-detached starts are expected to remain at the same level as last year. New home starts will decline next year to 3,045 starts, slightly above last year’s total. The change in the selling price of new homes as measured by the New Housing Price Index (NHPI) has grown by more than four percent annually in Hamilton since 2002. The rising cost of development is one factor that has forced prices up. Consequently, builders are adjusting by constructing less expensive homes to keep home prices affordable for homebuyers. This will include building smaller single-detached homes and more multiple-family home types – semi-detached homes, townhouses and apartments. This inclination toward more construction of higher density home types is supported by recent demographic trends from the latest census, which revealed a sharp shift in housing type preference by all age groups, away from single-detached houses to other dwelling types. This trend is expected to continue, particularly since empty nesters, who are interested in downsizing, will increase from just under a quarter of all households currently to over a third in the next 25 years. Starts are still ahead of household formation, which indicates some slowdown in starts is likely over the next five years. By the end of this period, the echo-boomers (children of the baby-boomers) will begin to buy their first homes, leading to a partial rebound in starts. In Brantford, total home starts will reach 600 this year, an increase of two per cent from last year. However, a drop in single-detached starts in the third quarter has contributed to fewer starts for the year thus far. Over the same period, semi-detached, townhouse, and apartment starts jumped 61 per cent. The average price of a new single-detached home is expected to reach $252,000 in Brantford next year.

Resale Home Market -Sales to Ease From Record Levels

Despite moderating economic conditions in Hamilton and in the broader Canadian economy this year, the resale market in Hamilton has performed relatively well. Just under 13,000 sales are expected in Hamilton this year – a decrease of 7.7% – and the average price of an existing home is forecast to reach $280,000 – a four per cent increase from last year. It is important to note that 2007 was a peak year in the Hamilton resale market and thus most other years pale in comparison. In 2009, the resale market will become more balanced. Listings will fall slightly to 19,200 and sales will drop to 12,000. More choice in the resale market will translate into more moderate price growth for next year at just under three percent. Price growth that falls in line with the level of targeted inflation will encourage buyers to continue purchasing homes in the resale market next year. More moderate price growth expected next year will help support housing demand going forward. Still, there will be some pull back from first time buyers coming from the rental market who generally have lower household incomes than owners. Some of these would-be buyers may choose to remain in the rental market. The vacancy rate is forecast to be 3.6 per cent in 2009. In Brantford, 2,000 sales of existing homes are expected in 2009 and the average price will rise 2.8 per cent to reach $224,000. Less expensive homes in Brantford as compared to the surrounding area will drive some buyers to this market, though moderate employment growth will put downward pressure on sales.

Local Economy -Local Job Market Diversifying

Manufacturing employment in Hamilton has eased off its peak in 2004, when jobs in this sector represented 21 per cent of all jobs. Today, manufacturing employment represents just 14 per cent of all jobs in Hamilton. Despite the drag from manufacturing employment, total employment in Hamilton is at a record level. Also, full-time jobs – a key driver of ownership housing – remain at a steady high. This means that employment in sectors other than manufacturing continues to keep the total unemployment rate in Hamilton under 6.5 percent. In addition, targeted growth in employment sectors such as health sciences, biotechnology and advanced manufacturing, coupled with public investment in local research institutes has contributed to the diversification of Hamilton’s job market. Innovation and developing new industries will help sustain economic growth in Hamilton, and allow it to continue competing in the global economy. Nevertheless, total employment is expected to increase by less than one per cent per year in 2008 and in 2009 in Hamilton.

Long Term Economic – Growth in Brantford

In Brantford, employment is also growing, especially in full-time jobs. Brantford continues to attract business investment through incentive programs and thus is able to retain and create more jobs. Also, Brantford’s post-secondary institutions are expanding and thus are expected to attract more people to the area. Long-term growth is expected in Brantford given the provincial plans to intensify certain areas of Southern Ontario. Although the closure of the Daimler AG plant in St. Thomas is expected next year, overall employment is expected to grow modestly in Branford at approximately one per cent per year in each of 2008 and 2009.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout the last quarter of this year, remaining within 25-50 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half 2009. For the last quarter of 2008 and in 2009, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.00-6.75 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.50-7.25 per cent range.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64303/64303_2008_B02.pdf