Posted by Moshe Alexander
Vacancy rate keeps rising According to the results of the latest CMHC Rental Market Survey conducted in October 2009, the rental apartment vacancy rate1 increased again in the Sherbrooke CMA. After climbing by 0.4 of a percentage point in 2008 to 2.8 per cent, the vacancy rate continued to rise in 2009, reaching 3.9 per cent. As shown in Figure 1, the rental market has now been easing more significantly for the past three years in the Sherbrooke area. However, the proportion of unoccupied units still remained far from the levels observed in the late 1990s, when more than 7 per cent of rental apartments were vacant.
In the other CMAs across the province, the Québec area still had the tightest rental market, with fewer than 1 per cent of apartments vacant. As for the Saguenay, Montréal and Gatineau areas, their proportions of unoccupied units remained relatively stable between October 2008 and October 2009, edging down from 1.6 per cent to 1.5 per cent in Saguenay and rising slightly from 2.4 per cent to 2.5 per cent in Montréal and from 1.9 per cent to 2.2 per cent in Gatineau. In the Trois-Rivières CMA, however, the vacancy rate was up, reaching 2.7 per cent (+1 percentage point). Among all of Quebec’s urban centres with 100,000 or inhabitants, Sherbrooke had the highest percentage of vacant rental housing units in 2009, for a second straight year.
Supply increases while demand slowsThe vacancy rate hike in the Sherbrooke CMA in 2009 resulted from a moderating demand and a rising supply.
On the demand side, migrants who come to an area, whether from other areas of Quebec or elsewhere, are definitely one of the main factors. In fact, most newcomers to an area choose to rent when they arrive. The relationship between migration and the vacancy rate is illustrated in Figure 3, with high net migration often being associated with a tighter rental market and the opposite also being observed.
Preliminary data2 show that no substantial immigration gains should be registered in the Sherbrooke CMA since the last survey. Stagnant immigration is no doubt one of the factors that contributed to moderating rental housing demand in the Sherbrooke area this year.
As well, the Sherbrooke CMA has recorded negative net interregional migration3 of about 100 people among the group aged from 15 to 34 years4, for the past two years. In other words, more young people left the capital of the Eastern Townships than settled there. This decrease therefore moderated demand for rental housing units, as the young population is an important client group on the rental market. In fact, according to data from the latest census (2006), most Sherbrooke area households whose primary maintainer is aged from 15 to 34 years are renters.
In addition to migration, several other factors contributed to slowing rental housing demand in the Sherbrooke CMA in 2009. One such factor was that the labour market was less favourable for young people (labour force aged from 15 to 24 years) between the October 2008 and October 2009 surveys. Compared to last year, the average employment level fell by 14 per cent among young people aged from 15 to 24 years, with this decrease mainly affecting full-time jobs (-24 per cent). In these conditions, many young people may have been deterred from leaving the family home, or encouraged to share accommodations, which also slowed demand on the rental market.
Changes in the age structure of a population (in this case, the aging of the population) may also have an effect on the proportion of unoccupied rental housing units in an area. According to our latest demographic projections, the growth in the number of young households (aged from 15 to 34 years) in the Sherbrooke area will be relatively weak, if not stagnant, between 2008 and 2009, which will limit the potential renter client pool. Negative growth is even forecast for the next few years, which will further curb demand on this market.
Another major reason for the vacancy rate increase is that financing conditions have been favourable to home buying, which means that a number of renter households possibly became homeowners. In fact, the strong sales of existing and new homes registered in the CMA in recent years seem to support this point. The same scenario was likely repeated in 2009, which again drove up the percentage of vacant units in the Sherbrooke area.
With such demand conditions and a rental housing supply that increased by 2.5 per cent between our last two surveys (from 30,842 units in 2008 to 31,621 in 2009), it was therefore not surprising to see a hike in the vacancy rate in 2009 in the Sherbrooke CMA.
Lastly, it should be mentioned that, even with the low vacancy rates observed in recent years, the growth in the supply on the rental market has been rather limited. It should not be forgotten that, in the late 1980s, rental housing construction had been very strong in the CMA, such that the vacancy rates had hovered around 10 per cent in the years that followed. Some builders may have then decided to focus their activities on other market segments. Now, even with the low vacancy rates registered in recent years, rental housing construction has never returned to its previous pace. This is generally the case, as a lag is often observed between changes in the vacancy rate on a market and the ensuing adjustment in the level of rental housing starts.