The Québec census metropolitan area (CMA) stayed the course at the beginning of the year, as the labour market there continued to grow. After the first six months of the year, the job market in the CMA was on the rise and, as such, stood out from the other five metropolitan areas across Quebec, where employment was down. Several sectors enjoyed growth, including construction, finance, and insurance and real estate.
The third quarter results, however, revealed a very different picture
Posts Tagged ‘Outlook’
Comments: 0November 5th, 2009 by admin
Posted by Moishe Alexander
With some 1,850 new homes expected to be started in both 2009 and 2010, new home construction is expected to remain relatively stable. This is mostly due to a weak rebound of single-detached home construction,which is expected to increase by only 50 units from the 2009 level.
The weak rebound in single-detached home construction is mostly due to competition from the resale market, especially from the nearly new category (homes of 1-5 year vintage). Strong growth in new single-detached home construction before 2006 created a large stock, and some of them are being offered for sale in the resale market. These homes are very popular among doctors, nurses or other health care or natural sciences related professionals. During the past few years, they tended to purchase new from builders because the resale market was tight. However, with a larger offering of nearly new homes on the market, they tend to find what they want in the resale market. With listings of resale homes expected to remain high, these professionals will tend to purchase from resale than directly from builders.
There are reports that some builders may be building up inventories in order to better compete with the resale market, by being able to have homes ready for customers to move into as soon as the transaction closes. However, at the end of September, the level of completed and unabsorbed homes dropped to 99 units, down from nearly 200 units earlier this year.
Apartment construction will be relatively strong in 2009 and 2010. Overall apartment starts will reach 850 units in 2009, and 800 units in 2010.Many of them will continue to be in the high-end rental category. Empty nesters and retirees who like the convenience of an apartment lifestyle are the key customer group for these apartments.
Condominium apartments are also becoming a factor in the London housing market. The popularity of high-end rental apartments among empty nesters and retirees has resulted in some showing interest in ownership. Developers are beginning to build high rise condominiums to satisfy this demand.
Comments: 0November 5th, 2009 by admin
Posted by Moishe Alexander
New home construction in the Winnipeg CMA will move upward in 2010 following a slower year for builders in 2009. Local builders are on pace to start 1,925 homes in 2009, a decline of 36 per cent from 2008, before production will move up 25 per cent to 2,400 units in 2010.
To the end of September 2009, total starts are 33 per cent below the same period in 2008, with 1,504 foundations poured compared to 2,247 during the first nine months of 2008. This reduction has been a response to elevated inventories in both the single-detached and multi-family markets as well as a lower level of demand created by the economic uncertainty that existed over the first half of the year.
Given demographic patterns in the Winnipeg CMA, both 2009 and 2010 will see the rate of household formation in the city surpass housing starts. Lower starts to adjust for heightened inventories are necessary to bring levels in line with long term averages and the new home market into balance again.
The single-detached sector will finish 2009 with 1,425 starts, down more than 26 per cent from 2008. Activity will rebound in 2010 when 1,600 starts will be recorded, 12 per cent more than 2009. Price growth will remain positive, but modest, with the New House Price Index rising 2.5 per cent in 2009 and 3.0 per cent in 2010.
While the number of single-detached units under construction has recently moved slightly below the ten-year average at 691 units, the number of complete and unabsorbed units remains high by historical standards at 199 units. That compares to a ten-year average of 169 units. Nonetheless, the decline in starts earlier in the year has allowed for the absorption of many complete and unabsorbed units, which reached their peak of 301 units in November of last year. Despite the recent decline in inventory, builders have been hesitant to start new spec units given current market conditions.
The challenges faced by builders in 2009 are underscored by the 1,053 single starts recorded through September, a decline of 28 per cent from the same period in 2008.