Renters had an easier time finding rental accommodation in Vancouver this fall, compared to last year. Higher rental apartment vacancy rates have meant that renters have more choice. Although higher than last year, Vancouver’s vacancy rate is still below the national average and among the lowest in the country.

A slowdown in employment sent Vancouver’s rental apartment vacancy rate higher in 2009. The vacancy rate increased to 2.1 per cent, after sitting below one per cent for three consecutive years. Unemployment in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) for the first ten months of 2009 increased to seven per cent from 4.3 per cent for the same period last year. Although employment has been gradually improving since the spring of this year, it has only been in the last couple months that full-time employment has grown.

A shift to homeownership also contributed to higher rental vacancy rates in 2009. A combination of low mortgage rates and home prices off their peak value has meant that monthly mortgage payments are lower. As of September 2009, the average monthly mortgage payment for an apartment condominium was approximately ten per cent less than it was one year ago3. Although the average mortgage payment is still higher than the average monthly rental payment, some renters have chosen to take this opportunity to enter homeownership.
Virtually all communities in the Metro Vancouver area saw an increase in vacancies in 2009. The only exception to this was the University Endowment Lands (UEL). The vacancy rate in the UEL, along with several areas of Vancouver City and North Vancouver, remained tight, below one per cent in October 2009.Vancouver City, with its educational infrastructure and job opportunities in the business centre, and the lifestyle communities of West Vancouver and White Rock recorded vacancy rates just over one per cent.Vacancies increased in all other municipalities, with suburban communities north of the Fraser River near three per cent, and communities south of the Fraser, in the 4-6 per cent range.

The rental availability rate4 for private rental apartments moved higher in 2009. The availability rate increased to 2.8 per cent in October 2009, from 1.1 per cent a year earlier. The vacancy rate for investor-owned rental condominiums increased in 2009, but to a lesser extent than that for purpose-built rental units. The rental condominium vacancy rate moved up to 1.7 per cent from 0.6 per cent last fall. The stock of rental condominiums is generally newer and features more amenities than their purpose-built rental counterparts. These benefits shore up demand for rental condominiums.

According to the results of the Rental Market Survey conducted by CMHC in October, the market remained tight in the Québec CMA, as the vacancy rate stayed at 0.6 per cent. As well, the availability rate, which measures the percentage of units up for rent, was also low (1 per cent). This indicator revealed that a small proportion of tenants intend to put an end to their leases. The percentages of vacant units and available units on the market were therefore low. Demand for apartments has been strong, and supply has increased only slightly in recent years. The economic conditions prevailing in the area have contributed to maintaining demand for rental housing, with the low unemployment rate and solid job market having stimulated the formation of young households and the migration of workers to the CMA. In addition, youth employment rose this year. It should be noted that young households with a primary maintainer aged under 25 years are most often (9 times out of 10) renters.

The Québec CMA has the tightest rental market in the province. And, the Québec area, along with the Regina CMA, also had the tightest rental market conditions in the country. Across the province of Quebec, conditions remained stable in the Gatineau, Montréal and Saguenay areas, as well, while they eased in Sherbrooke and Trois-Rivières. Vigorous demand Since the beginning of the decade, the rental market has been tight in the CMA. It should be pointed out that employment has grown and that the unemployment rate reached an all-time low in 2008 (4.5 per cent). During the first half of 2009, the labour market resisted the global recessionary climate, as employment increased in the first two quarters. However, a decline was noted in the third quarter. In the end, the number of jobs should remain stable in 2009 and rise slightly in 2010 (+0.5 per cent). This contrasts with the conditions observed in the other urban centres across the province, where decreases in employment have been noted since the beginning of the year.

The economic conditions therefore remained favourable in the area, as net migration rose to 4,350 people in 2007/2008, for a gain of 6 per cent over the year before. According to the available data, net migration will be high in the area for the current decade, reaching a total of about 40,000 people, compared to just 20,000 during the 1990s. The large number of new residents is significantly fuelling demand for rental housing. In fact, interregional migration is considerable and mainly composed of young people aged from 15 to 24 years (66 per cent). The international migration component has also increased in recent years, but the area is still losing some residents to other Canadian provinces.

Construction stimulated by market conditions In 2007 and 2008, traditional rental housing construction was less significant than in previous years. This situation, combined with a steady demand, contributed to maintaining the tight conditions observed on the market in the area. Between 2008 and 2009, 459 traditional rental housing were completed, which reflects a small increase in supply, considering the size of the Québec area market and the strong demand. This year, however, construction was more vigorous. In all, 924 traditional apartments were started from January to October 2009, compared to 423 during the same period in 2008.

Market very tight for larger units The larger the unit size, the tighter the market conditions as, in October, the vacancy rate was 0.1 per cent for three-bedroom apartments, compared to 1.6 per cent for bachelor units. The availability rate was also lower for larger apartments (0.5 per cent). As well, the supply of such units was more limited, accounting for an estimated 14 per cent of the universe1. with 10,400 three-bedroom apartments out of a total of 71,900 units. Two-bedroom apartments, for their part, made up 51 per cent of the survey universe.

Conditions tight in all market zones The conditions prevailing in the nine market zones in the CMA reflected a strong demand in all sectors. However, the rental market in the Haute-Ville zone has eased slightly since last year, as the vacancy rate there rose from 0.7 per cent to 1.4 per cent. And, the availability rate in this zone reached 2.2 per cent this pas October–the highest in the area. The estimated change in the average rent could explain this easing of the market in the Haute-Ville zone, as rents there rose by 4.5 per cent over 2008, for the strongest increase among all market zones in the Quebec area. In addition, this zone has the highest rents, with the average rent for two- bedroom apartments having reached $881 per month this past October, or 30 per cent more than the average for the CMA ($676 per month).

It should be noted that the western part of the South Shore (Charny, Saint-Romuald, Saint-Jean- Chrysostome) had a vacancy rate of 0 per cent this past October, compared to 0.2 per cent the year before, while the eastern part of the South Shore (Lévis, Pintendre) saw its market conditions ease this year (with a vacancy rate of 0.9 per cent, up from 0.4 per cent).

New home construction in the Winnipeg CMA will move upward in 2010 following a slower year for builders in 2009. Local builders are on pace to start 1,925 homes in 2009, a decline of 36 per cent from 2008, before production will move up 25 per cent to 2,400 units in 2010.

To the end of September 2009, total starts are 33 per cent below the same period in 2008, with 1,504 foundations poured compared to 2,247 during the first nine months of 2008. This reduction has been a response to elevated inventories in both the single-detached and multi-family markets as well as a lower level of demand created by the economic uncertainty that existed over the first half of the year.

Given demographic patterns in the Winnipeg CMA, both 2009 and 2010 will see the rate of household formation in the city surpass housing starts. Lower starts to adjust for heightened inventories are necessary to bring levels in line with long term averages and the new home market into balance again.

The single-detached sector will finish 2009 with 1,425 starts, down more than 26 per cent from 2008. Activity will rebound in 2010 when 1,600 starts will be recorded, 12 per cent more than 2009. Price growth will remain positive, but modest, with the New House Price Index rising 2.5 per cent in 2009 and 3.0 per cent in 2010.

While the number of single-detached units under construction has recently moved slightly below the ten-year average at 691 units, the number of complete and unabsorbed units remains high by historical standards at 199 units. That compares to a ten-year average of 169 units. Nonetheless, the decline in starts earlier in the year has allowed for the absorption of many complete and unabsorbed units, which reached their peak of 301 units in November of last year. Despite the recent decline in inventory, builders have been hesitant to start new spec units given current market conditions.

The challenges faced by builders in 2009 are underscored by the 1,053 single starts recorded through September, a decline of 28 per cent from the same period in 2008.

Provincially, the labour force and employment are expected to rise moderately in 2010, while in Halifax, growth is expected to be more significant. Halifax will continue to see steady growth in the economy and this will translate into improving conditions in the local housing market.

The local economy in Halifax continues to benefit from positive migration patterns. With more people moving to Halifax than moving away, the labour force has been growing. Almost every month of 2009 saw greater numbers of people looking for work in Halifax and by the summer months there were more people looking for work than ever before. Fortunately, most of these job seekers found employment which resulted in a record level of employment in Halifax. Employment was up by three to four per cent in 2009 compared to 2008. Employment may ease off of record highs during certain months in the forecast period, however overall employment is expected to continue to show positive growth in 2010.

Employment is being bolstered by the construction industry and the public sector. Large construction projects and large military contracts have contributed to strength in these industries. The largest employment sector in Halifax is the services sector which has seen slow but steady growth of approximately three per cent so far in 2009. The opening of some new or trendy retail stores has contributed to the growth in this sector. Areas experiencing weakness are the finance, trade and primary goods sectors which are struggling due to global economic issues and reduced demand for exports. Wages are also expected to continue to move upwards. As of August 2009, seasonally adjusted average weekly earnings have risen by over six per cent compared to the 2008 average. Average earnings now exceed $39,000 per year compared to just under $37,000 in 2008.

Record employment levels and wages  will be supportive of housing activity in Halifax for the remainder of 2009 and 2010. Continued in-migration and near historic low interest rates will also contribute to increased housing demand in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM). In the near-term, some lingering effects of the weakened economy will keep demand subdued. In the medium- term, however, expect to see demand and activity begin to increase again in 2010.

The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range

TED-Spread On Wednesday, this widely quoted credit risk indicator fell to a 26-month low. The TED spread is now below its August 2007 levels. (August 2007 is generally viewed as the beginning of the subprime crisis.)

The TED spread is simply the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow money for three months. People use it to gauge fear and liquidity constraints in the North American credit market.

The TED spread reached an all-time high of 4.65% at the height of the credit crisis in October 2008. Its long-term average is about 1/2%.

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2009/07/ted-spread-continues-to-fall.html

brought by Moishe Alexander, CFC canadian funding corp CEO

A record-breaking number of homes were sold in Ottawa last month, up 3.9 per cent from May 2008, and for more money.

The Ottawa Real Estate Board said 1,969 residential properties were sold in May, compared to 1,896 a year ago. The May figure is a 19-per-cent increase from a month ago.

The average sale price of homes sold last month was $312,045, an increase of 5.3 per cent from May 2008.

Ottawa Real Estate Board president Rick Snell said the news is wonderful considering Canada’s turbulent economic climate.

“And it’s great for the Ottawa economy,” he said, “because every time there’s a sale, it generates all kinds of business throughout the Ottawa economy. People move, they buy furniture, they buy appliances, they decorate, they renovate.”

The fact that Ottawans enjoy the benefits of living in a real estate bubble is not news. With stable government employment and a highly educated population enjoying steady incomes for the most part, the city’s May figures don’t surprise the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“We have a very stable market in Ottawa,” CMHC senior Ottawa market analyst Sandra Pérez Torres said Wednesday. “Year-to-date employment shows positive numbers. We have, until April 2009, a 0.1 per cent increase, so despite the fact that some sectors have decreases from last year — such as in trade, manufacturing, transportation — public administration and services are picking up the slack.”

“Even construction employment has increased significantly from last year.”

Pérez Torres said consumers are also continuing to take advantage of low interest rates.

“There are other, smaller regions in Ontario like Thunder Bay, for example, which is showing positive numbers as well. But in general, when we compare with the bigger picture, Ottawa is one of the best ones, showing a very, very positive outlook.”

The May numbers are in keeping with 2009 Ottawa real estate market projections released in December, in which RE/MAX and CMHC predicted a slight rise in prices and no drastic decline in home sales.

Ottawa is becoming more of a sellers’ market, Pérez Torres added. The trend began in April, and she predicts it will continue over the summer. Traditionally, Snell said, the market peaks in May and June before beginning a gradual decline into the fall.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Business/merry+month+Ottawa+home+sellers/1660731/story.html

presented by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

For the second month in a row, the Canadian housing market has recorded an increasing number of sales in most areas around the country.

“Conditions in the resale housing market have improved markedly this Spring,” according to TREB President Maureen O’Neill. “Home purchases have increased as households have taken advantage of low interest rates and slightly lower home prices.”

While April sales remained lower than last year, the housing market gained momentum on a month-over-month basis.

Paul Penner, President of the Fraser Valley real estate board, says current conditions have created one of the best buying opportunities in years. “REALTORS® have successfully communicated to their sellers to be more realistic with their prices, which is why we’ve seen a 29% increase in sales from March to April.”

Penner also attributes the increase to all-time historically low interest rates and still relatively high inventory for Fraser Valley, although it is dropping rapidly.

Below is a brief summary of sales activities in some areas across the country:

British Columbia
Surrey, May 4, 2009: The Fraser Valley real estate market continued to show signs of rebalancing in April with the number of sales increasing for the third month in a row while the volume of available properties stayed constant. Benchmark prices for detached homes and condominiums also showed increases over the last three months.

In April, there were 1,293 sales processed on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), reflecting a 28% decrease compared to the 1,787 sales in April of last year, however, a 29% increase over March sales. At the same time, the Board received 44% fewer new listings compared to one year ago, 2,477 in contrast to 4,458 in April 2008, helping to stabilize the number of active listings in the Fraser Valley at 9,855.

The Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price of Fraser Valley townhouses decreased 11.6% from $333,982 in April 2008 to $295,078 in April 2009. That decrease, however, slowed to 0.1% during the last three months. The benchmark price of apartments also decreased year-over-year by 11.4% going from $260,037 in April of last year to $230,337 in April 2009. Similar to detached homes, the benchmark price for apartments has increased by 4.4% over the last three months.

Ontario

Toronto, May 6, 2009: Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,107 sales in April, down 7% from April 2008. While April sales remained lower than last year, the housing market gained momentum on a month-over-month basis. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in April, at 80,900, was up 26% from March and up two-thirds compared to January’s ten-year low.

The average price for April transactions was $385,641, down 3% from last year.

Ottawa, May 5, 2009: Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,594 residential properties in April through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® system compared with 1,560 in April 2008, an increase of 2.2%. There were 1,162 sales in March 2009.

The average price of residential properties, including condominiums, sold in April in the Ottawa area was $298,150, an increase of 1% over April 2008. The average price for a condominium-class property was $216,502, an increase of 2.8% over April 2008. The average price of a residential-class property was $318,900, an increase of 0.7% over April 2008.

Alberta

Calgary, May 1, 2009: Sales activity of single family Calgary metro homes was 1,290 in the month of April 2009, showing an increase of 19% from 1,086 sales in March 2009. This was a decrease of 5% from April 2008, when single family home sales were 1,363. The number of condominium sales for the month of April 2009 was 579, an increase of 30% from the 446 condominium transactions recorded in March 2009, and a decrease of 0.3% from April 2008, when 581 condominiums changed hands.

The average price of a single family Calgary metro home in April 2009 was $426,311, showing an increase of 1% from March 2009, when the average price was $420,354, and showing a decrease of 10% from April 2008, when the average price was $474,564. The average price of a Calgary metro condominium was $277,953, showing a 2% decrease from March 2009, when the average price was $284,056, and a decrease of 11% over last year, when the average price was $312,586. Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas.

Saskatchewan

Saskatoon, May 1, 2009: April’s real estate market continued to correct with fewer listings being taken easing higher than normal inventory levels. Saskatoon REALTORS® assisted 353 buyers to find their dream home, a decrease of15% from April 2008 when 413 units were sold.

REALTORS® placed 694 properties on the market in April, a decrease of 23% from 2008 when 896 homes were listed for sale. Buyers had 1499 properties to select from, down substantially from a market high of 1,748 homes for sale in September 2008.

The average selling price for April was $275,455, down from April 2008 when the average price was $306,031.

Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia, April 17, 2009: Though Nova Scotia’s March real estate sales activity was down 15% from last March, it was still the highest level of housing sales activity in the province in five months, as reported by the Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS®. In January 2009, the year-over-year decline was 32%.

The value of all residential transactions recorded through the MLS® system in Nova Scotia totalled $130.5 million in March 2009, a 16% decrease from year-ago levels. The total value of all MLS® sales activity in Nova Scotia was $137.4 million, a year-over-year decline of 17% from March 2008.

The average price for MLS® home sales in Nova Scotia was down slightly in March 2009 compared to levels one year earlier. Edging down 1% from March 2008, the provincial average price for home sales was $188,651.

The MLS® average price rose by 1.6% in Halifax-Dartmouth, to $229,548. The small decrease in provincial average price was the result of fewer sales in this region, where homes are priced higher than in other markets across the province. Sales activity was down by 19% year-over-year in Halifax-Dartmouth, compared to the 15% provincial decline. This resulted in fewer transactions at the higher end of the price spectrum being included in the calculation of the provincial average price.

http://www.whistler-realestate.com/Blog/Canadian-Real-Estate-Market-Watch-for-May

]]> http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/06/canadian-real-estate-market-watch-for-may/feed/ 0 http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/06/remax-honours-for-torontos-real-estate-team/ http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/06/remax-honours-for-torontos-real-estate-team/#comments Mon, 15 Jun 2009 19:12:56 +0000 admin http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=126 Interesting onfo from Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

Things are really coming together for our Team this year after the scary way 2008 ended.  From television to client service awards and Team standings, all are coming up roses.

Thirty-five Toronto buyers and sellers chose us to represent them in the month of May… a terrific testimonial to our Team’s belief in providing excellent representation and counselling to our clients.

Sally had the privilege of being chosen as one of the ‘pro’ agents on this years “The Agents” TV series.  It’s showing on the W Network Monday evenings at 10 pm.  Go to www.WNetwork.com/theagents to see some of the trailers.

RE/MAX Ontario had a Platinum Members Only presentation on Thursday of this past week in downtown Toronto and Sally was asked to be one of the Pro-Agent panelists along with other Realtors from Toronto, Ottawa and St John’s, Newfoundland.

In March of this year, RE/MAX International presented me with the Circle Of Legends award.

This is given to RE/MAX agents who have helped approximately 1,500 home buyers or sellers in their real estate career.

It’s been a terrific journey starting in 1980 and transitioning in and out of several recessions and boom markets along the way.

And finally, the statistics are in for RE/MAX Team standings in Canada for the month of April 2009.

Our Toronto’s Real Estate Team was ranked # 21 in Canada, #6 in Ontario and #2 in Toronto out of over 15,000 RE/MAX Realtors nationwide.

Thanks go out to our terrific clients for their continued loyalty and support, especially in the past several years… please keep those referrals coming

http://blogtorontorealestate.ca/2009/06/14/remax-honours-for-torontos-real-estate-team/