The seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of housing starts was 197,300 units in March 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

Seasonally adjusted annual rate estimates of housing start activity were also revised up for January and February². This resulted in month-over-month gains of 7.5 per cent in January (189,000 units), 6 per cent in February (200,400 units), and a slight decrease of 1.5 per cent in March.

“The moderation in March housing starts was due to a decrease in the volatile multiple starts segment. Helping to offset this was an increase in singles starts as well as more activity in rural areas,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 4.2 per cent to 175,200 units in March. Urban multiple starts decreased by 15.2 per cent to 77,500 units while single urban starts increased by 6.9 per cent to 97,700 units.

March’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 13.5 per cent in Quebec and by 7.3 per cent in the Prairie region, but decreased by 16.3 per cent in British Columbia, by 15.5 per cent in Ontario, and by 8 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 22,100 units in March³.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

The Government of Canada’s announced today an investment of more than $2.1 million as part of the year one funding through Canada’s Economic Action Plan to improve housing conditions for the First Nation communities on Vancouver Island.

James Lunney, Member of Parliament for Nanaimo – Alberni, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), made the announcement along with members of the Tseshaht First Nation community.

“Our Government’s Economic Action Plan is creating jobs, stimulating the local economy and improving housing conditions for First Nation communities in British Columbia,” said MP Lunney.

Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the Government of Canada has committed $400 million over two years to help First Nation communities build needed new housing, repair and remediate existing non-profit housing for their members, and complement housing programs offered by CMHC. This investment will also provide an economic stimulus for many First Nations and surrounding areas by creating jobs.

Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, some $50 million in federal investments will be made available to First Nations in British Columbia to address immediate housing needs.

Specifically, CMHC will allocate more than $11.1 million to retrofit housing units on reserve in British Columbia. Of this funding, 17 First Nation communities on Vancouver Island will receive more than $2.1 million to improve the quality of 207 housing units.

The Government of Canada announced today an investment of more than $1.2 million as part of Canada’s Economic Action Plan to improve housing conditions for the Blood Tribe First Nation community.

Ted Menzies, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance and Member of Parliament for Macleod, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the Honourable Chuck Strahl, Minister of Indian and Northern Affairs and Federal Interlocutor for Métis and Non-Status Indians (INAC), made the announcement along with members of the Blood Tribe First Nation community.

“Our Government’s Economic Action Plan is delivering support for improvements in housing conditions for members who live in First Nation communities in Alberta and we are also stimulating the local economy by creating jobs,” said Parliamentary Secretary Menzies.

Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the Government of Canada has committed $400 million over the next two years to help First Nation communities build needed new housing, repair and remediate existing non-profit housing for their members, and complement housing programs offered by CMHC and INAC. This investment will also provide an economic stimulus for many First Nations and surrounding areas by creating jobs.

Through CMHC and INAC some $50 million in federal investments will be made available to First Nations in Alberta to address immediate housing needs. CMHC is contributing $695,000 to retrofit 42 social housing units on-reserve for the Blood Tribe First Nation while INAC is contributing $592,000 for other renovations and lot servicing.

Funding of $420,000 for six new affordable housing rental units for seniors living on low income was announced today in Glencoe.

Bev Shipley, Member of Parliament for Lambton – Kent – Middlesex, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), and Maria Van Bommel, Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister of Children and Youth Services and Member of Provincial Parliament for Lambton – Kent – Middlesex, on behalf of the Honourable Jim Watson, Ontario’s Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing; along with Doug Reycraft, Mayor of the Municipality of Southwest Middlesex made the announcement.

“The Government of Canada is helping Canadians during these tough economic times and giving hope to seniors who need quality, affordable housing that meets their needs,” said MP Shipley. “This investment is possible through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the federal government’s plan to stimulate the economy and create jobs during the global recession. For Ontario, this includes a $1.2 billion joint investment.”

“New housing initiatives add significant support to the McGuinty government’s Poverty Reduction Strategy,” said MPP Van Bommel. “We will continue to work with our municipal partners to ensure more units are built during the life of this program.”

“The six new affordable housing units in this eight-unit building are a welcome addition to our rental stock in Southwest Middlesex,” said Mayor Reycraft. “I have heard from several seniors who are eagerly awaiting the completion of the apartment building. The investment by the federal and provincial governments, and by Sundip and Melissa Bajaj, in these affordable units is great news.”

The Government of Canada wants to ensure that Canadians on fixed incomes can live with independence and dignity and remain in their communities, close to family and friends. Canada’s Economic Action Plan provides $400 million, over two years, to build new rental housing for low-income seniors. Overall, the Economic Action Plan includes $2 billion for new and existing social housing, plus up to $2 billion in loans to municipalities for housing-related infrastructure.

Canada’s Economic Action Plan builds on the Government of Canada’s commitment in 2008 of more than $1.9 billion, over the next five years, to improve and build new affordable housing and help the homeless.

Today’s announcement celebrates funding for six new affordable rental units at 173 Main Street in Glencoe. The project is sponsored by Sundip and Melissa Bajaj.

According to the results of the latest Rental Market Survey conducted by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the rental stayed tight in the Saguenay CMA, as the rental housing vacancy rate reached 1.5 per cent in October 2009, compared to 1.6 per cent in October 2008. While demand for rental housing stayed strong, this year marked a break in a downward trend that had been prevailing since 2005, since this indicator remained relatively stable. The economic uncertainty surely had an impact on the formation of renter households and migration movements. However, given the small increase in supply, the net effect on the vacancy rate was almost nil.

Saguenay was not an exception in Quebec, with the vacancy rates remaining relatively stable in several other CMAs. In fact, only Sherbrooke and Trois-Rivières saw their markets ease, as their vacancy rates of 3.9 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively, were the highest in the province. In order, Montréal (with a vacancy rate of 2.5 per cent) and Gatineau (2.2 per cent) followed ahead Saguenay (1.5 per cent), while the Québec CMA (0.6 per cent) brought up the rear with the lowest rate in the province and one of lowest in the country. Across Canada, the vacancy rates were rather stable in more than one third of the CMAs, while they rose in almost all the other areas.

Economic and demographic conditions The employment level in the Saguenay CMA has remained steady since 2003, despite a small decrease in 2008 (-1.6 per cent). For the last quarter of 2008 and the first three of 2009, the average employment level reached 69,300 workers, compared to 68,800 for the same period a year earlier (+0.7 per cent). In addition, the dynamic labour market in the area has maintained the employment rate (the proportion of the population with jobs) around a record level of 55 per cent1. The job market is still holding up, which is maintaining demand on the rental market.

Not only did the dynamic labour market support the formation of renter households thanks to the income generated, but it also enhanced the appeal of the area. Net migration has improved in the Saguenay CMA, as the migration deficits have been getting smaller every year, decreasing from 1,341 people 2004/2005 to 852 people in 2007/2008, according to Statistics Canada estimates. Also, given that mobility is greater among young people (aged from 20 to 29 years) and that most of them are renters, the decreasing migration deficits have without a doubt been contributing to supporting demand for rental housing.

That being said, the uncertain economic conditions that prevailed at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 likely had an impact on migration movements. Traditionally, the Québec CMA has been the main destination of emigrants from Saguenay2. The good performance of the Québec area job market during a difficult period evidently attracted more households seeking new employment opportunities. In these conditions, the growth in housing demand in the Saguenay area will have been less vigorous than in previous years.

The aging of the population is another factor that stimulates rental housing demand. Between 15 and 55 years, the older primary household maintainers get, the less likely they are to live in rental housing. From the age of 55 years, households increasingly choose to rent a dwelling. When they get older, the seniors’ housing market remains an option for some, but the traditional rental market may be an alternative for households who do not have the financial means to move to a retirement home. In addition, over the coming years, household formation will be concentrated among people aged 55 years or older.

New rental housing supply The additional supply of traditional rental housing was rather limited between the October 2008 and October 2009 surveys. In fact, only 50 new traditional rental housing units were completed during this time (this figure, however, excludes units that have been converted into rental dwellings). As well, 50 new duplex units were built between July 2008 and June 2009, potentially adding 25 more dwellings to the rental market (as one out of two units is usually occupied by the owner of these buildings). The stable vacancy rate was therefore also due to the limited supply of new rental units, in addition to the slower growth in demand.

Contrary to last year, when rental market conditions tightened in all sectors of the Saguenay CMA, this year, the results were mixed. The market tightened in Jonquière, on account of two factors: first, the average rent level was lower in this sector and, second, the estimated change in the average rent was less significant there than elsewhere. The Chicoutimi-Sud and La Baie rental markets, for their part, remained stable, while Chicoutimi-Nord was the only sector where conditions eased. More specifically, the Jonquière market, with a vacancy rate that fell from 2.4 per cent in October 2008 to 1.5 per cent in October 2009, has now become almost as tight as the Chicoutimi-Sud market. Still, this last market remained the tightest in the area, with a vacancy rate that reached 1.3 per cent in October 2009, versus 1.0 per cent in October 2008. In La Baie, the proportion of vacancy units remained relatively stable, reaching 2.2 per cent in the fall of 2009, compared to 2.1 per cent a year earlier. Lastly, the vacancy rate in the Chicoutimi- Nord sector rose to 2.1 per cent in October 2009 from 0.7 per cent in October 2008.

The estimated change in the average rent was 3.4 per cent between October 2008 and October 2009. The tighter rental market conditions are certainly not unrelated to this situation. However, the size of the changes varied with the sectors. The sector with the tightest market conditions and the strongest demand in the area, Chicoutimi-Sud, also posted the greatest estimated change in the average rent (+4.6 per cent). The Jonquière sector, for its part, showed the smallest change in the average rent (+1.7 per cent) and a tighter market. This less significant change possibly attracted more households to this sector. As for the other two sectors of the Saguenay CMA, the changes in the average rents were 3.2 per cent in La Baie and 4.4 per cent in Chicoutimi-Nord.

In 2009, the Saguenay CMA had the most affordable rental market among all the Canadian metropolitan areas targeted by the rental affordability indicator. With this indicator at 152, Saguenay came in just ahead of Sherbrooke (151). The more rapid growth in the median income than in the median rent helped make housing more affordable in the area.

The rental affordability indicator is a gauge of how affordable a rental market is for those households who rent within that market. The rental affordability indicator examines a three-year moving average of median income of renter households and compares it to the median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the centre in which they live. More specifically, the level of income required for a household to rent a median priced two-bedroom apartment, using 30 per cent of its income, is calculated. The three-year moving average of median income of households in a centre is then divided by this required income. The resulting number is then multiplied by 100 to form the indicator. An indicator value of 100 indicates that 30 per cent of the median income of renter households is necessary to rent a two-bedroom apartment going at the median rental rate. A value above 100 indicates that less than 30 per cent of the median income is required to rent a two- bedroom apartment, conversely, a value below 100 indicates that more than 30 per cent of the median income is required to rent the same unit. In general, as the indicator increases, the market becomes more affordable; as the indicator declines, the market becomes less affordable.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts reached 158,500 units in November. This is an increase from 157,400 units started in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“The improvement in housing starts continued in November,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Despite a small decline in November’s multiple home construction, overall starts numbers were up due to a solid increase in singles starts.” The November total is the highest of the year.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 0.7 per cent to 141,100 units in November. Urban multiple starts decreased slightly from 72,500 units in October to 71,300 units in November. Single urban starts increased by 3.4 per cent to 69,800 units in November.

November’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 10 per cent in Quebec, by 8.2 per cent in the Prairies and by 6.2 per cent in British Columbia. The rate of urban starts decreased by 8.3 per cent in Ontario and by 9.8 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,400 units in November.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

The slackness in the resale market has directly impacted the new home market as has the slowing economy. Single-detached starts will fall to 160 units in 2009 and 170 in 2010, as the market comes more into line with long term demographic requirements. CMHC expects 30 row, condominium and apartment starts in 2009 and another 55 in 2010. Relatively tight rental market conditions and reasonable take up of condominium units will result in some of this activity over the next 18 months.

As Figure 2 indicates, there has been improvement in household incomes in Thunder Bay and with required income being more or less flat, affordability has improved. Next year, with home prices and incomes rising modestly, homeownership should remain an affordable option and therefore demand should strengthen slightly.

After rising 4.3 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively in 2007 and 2008, the New Home Price Index for Sudbury-Thunder Bay will rise in 2009 and 2010 but only modestly given the slowdown in demand.

Vacancy rates have come down steadily since 1998 in Thunder Bay while two bedroom rents are the lowest amongst other centres in Ontario. Lack of new supply and healthy demand due to strong enrolment numbers at Lakehead University and Confederation College contribute to the demand picture, not-to-mention in-migration from Northwestern Ontario from retirees and education and/or job seekers. CMHC expects the vacancy rate to fall again in 2009 to 1.6 per cent before increasing to 2.0 in 2010 as resale market activity picks up bringing households out of rental housing into homeownership. Rents should escalate in 2009 and 2010 given continued strong demand for rental accommodation.

Developers have plans for condominium in 2010 and beyond. A steady supply condominium units coming onto the market over the last twenty years has given Thunder Bay a nice mix of housing. This type and tenure of housing gives the city some allure, especially as empty nesters from the region look to retire to this city. Pricing will be very important as this product is primarily targeted at empty nesters who do not typically want to pay more for a condo than what they obtain from the sale of the family home or other homeownership unit.

After hitting a record high in 2008, Thunder Bay sales have fallen 18 per cent in 2009. July was the only month to register a year-over-year increase in sales. Sales will fall twenty per cent in 2009 and CMHC estimates a relatively small six per cent increase next year to 1,400 sales. Expect a gradually improving economy as low mortgage rates will positively impact the market next year.

The shortage of active listings in the Thunder Bay existing home market will exert pressure on prices. Although sales are still reasonably solid given last year’s all-time record in the Thunder Bay market, the sales to active listings ratio is unquestionably in a strong balanced to seller’s market position. The supply- demand relationship will cause price appreciation to continue barring some unforeseen economic shock. Watch for average prices to rise four per cent in 2009 and another four per cent in 2010.

With some 1,850 new homes expected to be started in both 2009 and 2010, new home construction is expected to remain relatively stable. This is mostly due to a weak rebound of single-detached home construction,which is expected to increase by only 50 units from the 2009 level.

The weak rebound in single-detached home construction is mostly due to competition from the resale market, especially from the nearly new category (homes of 1-5 year vintage). Strong growth in new single-detached home construction before 2006 created a large stock, and some of them are being offered for sale in the resale market. These homes are very popular among doctors, nurses or other health care or natural sciences related professionals. During the past few years, they tended to purchase new from builders because the resale market was tight. However, with a larger offering of nearly new homes on the market, they tend to find what they want in the resale market. With listings of resale homes expected to remain high, these professionals will tend to purchase from resale than directly from builders.

There are reports that some builders may be building up inventories in order to better compete with the resale market, by being able to have homes ready for customers to move into as soon as the transaction closes. However, at the end of September, the level of completed and unabsorbed homes dropped to 99 units, down from nearly 200 units earlier this year.

Apartment construction will be relatively strong in 2009 and 2010. Overall apartment starts will reach 850 units in 2009, and 800 units in 2010.Many of them will continue to be in the high-end rental category. Empty nesters and retirees who like the convenience of an apartment lifestyle are the key customer group for these apartments.

Condominium apartments are also becoming a factor in the London housing market. The popularity of high-end rental apartments among empty nesters and retirees has resulted in some showing interest in ownership. Developers are beginning to build high rise condominiums to satisfy this demand.

The new home market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) will see sales activity rise slightly this year in comparison to 2008. The low-rise housing segment will be credited for the increase in sales in 2009 while the high-rise sector will outperform in terms of sales growth next year. Total new home sales will reach 28,500 units this year and remain steady at 29,000 in 2010 — well below the annual average for the new millennium.

For the first time since 2006, low-rise homes will account for the majority of new home sales in the GTA in 2009 and 2010. New low rise home sales will rise by 37 percent this year to 17,000. Although this level is still well below the high reached in 2002, it represents a complete turnaround from last year when sales dropped by over 40 per cent. Low borrowing costs this year are a clear contributor to the rebound in low-rise sales, as is a lack of supply in the resale market. A rise in new listings in the resale market and a reduction in affordability next year will dampen demand for new single-detached homes in the second half of 2010. Total low-rise home sales will move lower in 2010 to 15,500 units — still above the 2008 level. Strong sales for singles in the first part of next year coupled with stable demand for less-expensive semi-detached and row houses throughout 2010 will provide some support for the low-rise segment.

A tougher selling environment for high-rise homes will lead to a sales decline of 23 percent this year to 11,500 units — the lowest level since 2003. More project launches, an improving employment situation for younger workers and a shift towards lower-priced housing types in the second half of next year will boost new high-rise sales in 2010 by 17 percent to 13,500 units. Construction delays and a heightened sense of uncertainty regarding new condominium projects this year has turned buyers away from pre- construction sales offices. At the same time, less project launches have created fewer new options for buyers. Faced with high levels of inventory relative to demand, developers have begun offering generous buyer incentives and reconfiguring remaining units to attract more sales centre traffic. Sales levels have responded and are now much higher than at the beginning of the year. Still, sales are down by over 40 percent in the year-to-date to August and even with further improvement will register an overall decline in 2009. However, current sales momentum will carry into 2010, leading to a much better performance for 2010.