Posts Tagged ‘Index’

HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK Winnipeg

Comments: 0November 5th, 2009 by admin

Posted by Moishe Alexander

New home construction in the Winnipeg CMA will move upward in 2010 following a slower year for builders in 2009. Local builders are on pace to start 1,925 homes in 2009, a decline of 36 per cent from 2008, before production will move up 25 per cent to 2,400 units in 2010.

To the end of September 2009, total starts are 33 per cent below the same period in 2008, with 1,504 foundations poured compared to 2,247 during the first nine months of 2008. This reduction has been a response to elevated inventories in both the single-detached and multi-family markets as well as a lower level of demand created by the economic uncertainty that existed over the first half of the year.

Given demographic patterns in the Winnipeg CMA, both 2009 and 2010 will see the rate of household formation in the city surpass housing starts. Lower starts to adjust for heightened inventories are necessary to bring levels in line with long term averages and the new home market into balance again.

The single-detached sector will finish 2009 with 1,425 starts, down more than 26 per cent from 2008. Activity will rebound in 2010 when 1,600 starts will be recorded, 12 per cent more than 2009. Price growth will remain positive, but modest, with the New House Price Index rising 2.5 per cent in 2009 and 3.0 per cent in 2010.

While the number of single-detached units under construction has recently moved slightly below the ten-year average at 691 units, the number of complete and unabsorbed units remains high by historical standards at 199 units. That compares to a ten-year average of 169 units. Nonetheless, the decline in starts earlier in the year has allowed for the absorption of many complete and unabsorbed units, which reached their peak of 301 units in November of last year. Despite the recent decline in inventory, builders have been hesitant to start new spec units given current market conditions.

The challenges faced by builders in 2009 are underscored by the 1,053 single starts recorded through September, a decline of 28 per cent from the same period in 2008.

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Posted in CMHC, Canada, Housing Market, affordable housing

Canadian Real Estate Falls As Mortgage Rates Rise

Comments: 1June 16th, 2009 by admin

The U.S. isn’t the only country facing increasing mortgage rates. Several Canadian banks have increased their posted mortgage rates by .2% as housing value decreases are accelerating. For more on this, see the following article from Property Wire.

vancouverrealestate

Residential property prices are continuing to fall and now there are fears that increases in mortgage rates could put off a lot of investors, especially first time buyers.

Canadian home prices fell 5.8% in March from the same month a year earlier, a faster pace of decline than in February, according to the latest published figures from the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index. It also shows that prices were down 8.5% nationally from the peak in August last year.

Western Canadian home prices were hardest-hit, with Vancouver leading with a 9.6% decline in March from a year earlier, while Calgary saw prices fall 8.4%, and Toronto saw a 6.9% slide. Halifax reported the smallest decline at 0.8%.

Montreal and Ottawa bucked the trend in March with property prices rising 2.9% and 1%, respectively. The index also showed home prices fell 4.1% year-over-year in February.

Analysts were confident that first time buyers were the key to recovery in the market but now Canada’s biggest banks are putting up key mortgage rates. Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal, Toronto-Dominion Bank, the Bank of Nova Scotia and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce are all increasing their posted rates on five-year, fixed-rate mortgages by 0.2% to 5.45%.

Paula Roberts, a mortgage broker with Mortgage Intelligence, said she hopes that buyers will not be put off by the new rates. She explained that the rises are coming from ‘abnormally low’ levels and there are still have plenty of opportunity to take advantage of lower borrowing costs because not all lenders will pass on the increases.

But there are fears that rates will go up even further as the government is concerned about inflation.

‘Certainly there is the recognition that interest rates are going to have to go up both because of the need to rein some of this monetary stimulus in once the economy gains traction and the level of debt that is being issued by governments,’ said Toronto-Dominion economist Grant Bishop.

And Canadians are borrowing less according to a report from Statistics Canada. ‘Net new mortgage borrowing contracted during the first three months of 2009, as investment in residential construction and activity in the resale housing market continued to decline,’ it said.

Note from Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO
This article has been reposted from PropertyWire. View the article on PropertyWire’s international real estate news website here.

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Posted in Alberta, British Columbia, CMHC, Housing Market, Manitoba, Newfoundland, Ontario, Quebec, Rental Market, Uncategorized