The Government of Canada announced today an investment of more than $1.2 million as part of Canada’s Economic Action Plan to improve housing conditions for the Blood Tribe First Nation community.

Ted Menzies, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance and Member of Parliament for Macleod, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the Honourable Chuck Strahl, Minister of Indian and Northern Affairs and Federal Interlocutor for Métis and Non-Status Indians (INAC), made the announcement along with members of the Blood Tribe First Nation community.

“Our Government’s Economic Action Plan is delivering support for improvements in housing conditions for members who live in First Nation communities in Alberta and we are also stimulating the local economy by creating jobs,” said Parliamentary Secretary Menzies.

Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the Government of Canada has committed $400 million over the next two years to help First Nation communities build needed new housing, repair and remediate existing non-profit housing for their members, and complement housing programs offered by CMHC and INAC. This investment will also provide an economic stimulus for many First Nations and surrounding areas by creating jobs.

Through CMHC and INAC some $50 million in federal investments will be made available to First Nations in Alberta to address immediate housing needs. CMHC is contributing $695,000 to retrofit 42 social housing units on-reserve for the Blood Tribe First Nation while INAC is contributing $592,000 for other renovations and lot servicing.

According to the results of the latest Rental Market Survey conducted by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the rental stayed tight in the Saguenay CMA, as the rental housing vacancy rate reached 1.5 per cent in October 2009, compared to 1.6 per cent in October 2008. While demand for rental housing stayed strong, this year marked a break in a downward trend that had been prevailing since 2005, since this indicator remained relatively stable. The economic uncertainty surely had an impact on the formation of renter households and migration movements. However, given the small increase in supply, the net effect on the vacancy rate was almost nil.

Saguenay was not an exception in Quebec, with the vacancy rates remaining relatively stable in several other CMAs. In fact, only Sherbrooke and Trois-Rivières saw their markets ease, as their vacancy rates of 3.9 per cent and 2.7 per cent, respectively, were the highest in the province. In order, Montréal (with a vacancy rate of 2.5 per cent) and Gatineau (2.2 per cent) followed ahead Saguenay (1.5 per cent), while the Québec CMA (0.6 per cent) brought up the rear with the lowest rate in the province and one of lowest in the country. Across Canada, the vacancy rates were rather stable in more than one third of the CMAs, while they rose in almost all the other areas.

Economic and demographic conditions The employment level in the Saguenay CMA has remained steady since 2003, despite a small decrease in 2008 (-1.6 per cent). For the last quarter of 2008 and the first three of 2009, the average employment level reached 69,300 workers, compared to 68,800 for the same period a year earlier (+0.7 per cent). In addition, the dynamic labour market in the area has maintained the employment rate (the proportion of the population with jobs) around a record level of 55 per cent1. The job market is still holding up, which is maintaining demand on the rental market.

Not only did the dynamic labour market support the formation of renter households thanks to the income generated, but it also enhanced the appeal of the area. Net migration has improved in the Saguenay CMA, as the migration deficits have been getting smaller every year, decreasing from 1,341 people 2004/2005 to 852 people in 2007/2008, according to Statistics Canada estimates. Also, given that mobility is greater among young people (aged from 20 to 29 years) and that most of them are renters, the decreasing migration deficits have without a doubt been contributing to supporting demand for rental housing.

That being said, the uncertain economic conditions that prevailed at the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009 likely had an impact on migration movements. Traditionally, the Québec CMA has been the main destination of emigrants from Saguenay2. The good performance of the Québec area job market during a difficult period evidently attracted more households seeking new employment opportunities. In these conditions, the growth in housing demand in the Saguenay area will have been less vigorous than in previous years.

The aging of the population is another factor that stimulates rental housing demand. Between 15 and 55 years, the older primary household maintainers get, the less likely they are to live in rental housing. From the age of 55 years, households increasingly choose to rent a dwelling. When they get older, the seniors’ housing market remains an option for some, but the traditional rental market may be an alternative for households who do not have the financial means to move to a retirement home. In addition, over the coming years, household formation will be concentrated among people aged 55 years or older.

New rental housing supply The additional supply of traditional rental housing was rather limited between the October 2008 and October 2009 surveys. In fact, only 50 new traditional rental housing units were completed during this time (this figure, however, excludes units that have been converted into rental dwellings). As well, 50 new duplex units were built between July 2008 and June 2009, potentially adding 25 more dwellings to the rental market (as one out of two units is usually occupied by the owner of these buildings). The stable vacancy rate was therefore also due to the limited supply of new rental units, in addition to the slower growth in demand.

Contrary to last year, when rental market conditions tightened in all sectors of the Saguenay CMA, this year, the results were mixed. The market tightened in Jonquière, on account of two factors: first, the average rent level was lower in this sector and, second, the estimated change in the average rent was less significant there than elsewhere. The Chicoutimi-Sud and La Baie rental markets, for their part, remained stable, while Chicoutimi-Nord was the only sector where conditions eased. More specifically, the Jonquière market, with a vacancy rate that fell from 2.4 per cent in October 2008 to 1.5 per cent in October 2009, has now become almost as tight as the Chicoutimi-Sud market. Still, this last market remained the tightest in the area, with a vacancy rate that reached 1.3 per cent in October 2009, versus 1.0 per cent in October 2008. In La Baie, the proportion of vacancy units remained relatively stable, reaching 2.2 per cent in the fall of 2009, compared to 2.1 per cent a year earlier. Lastly, the vacancy rate in the Chicoutimi- Nord sector rose to 2.1 per cent in October 2009 from 0.7 per cent in October 2008.

The estimated change in the average rent was 3.4 per cent between October 2008 and October 2009. The tighter rental market conditions are certainly not unrelated to this situation. However, the size of the changes varied with the sectors. The sector with the tightest market conditions and the strongest demand in the area, Chicoutimi-Sud, also posted the greatest estimated change in the average rent (+4.6 per cent). The Jonquière sector, for its part, showed the smallest change in the average rent (+1.7 per cent) and a tighter market. This less significant change possibly attracted more households to this sector. As for the other two sectors of the Saguenay CMA, the changes in the average rents were 3.2 per cent in La Baie and 4.4 per cent in Chicoutimi-Nord.

In 2009, the Saguenay CMA had the most affordable rental market among all the Canadian metropolitan areas targeted by the rental affordability indicator. With this indicator at 152, Saguenay came in just ahead of Sherbrooke (151). The more rapid growth in the median income than in the median rent helped make housing more affordable in the area.

The rental affordability indicator is a gauge of how affordable a rental market is for those households who rent within that market. The rental affordability indicator examines a three-year moving average of median income of renter households and compares it to the median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the centre in which they live. More specifically, the level of income required for a household to rent a median priced two-bedroom apartment, using 30 per cent of its income, is calculated. The three-year moving average of median income of households in a centre is then divided by this required income. The resulting number is then multiplied by 100 to form the indicator. An indicator value of 100 indicates that 30 per cent of the median income of renter households is necessary to rent a two-bedroom apartment going at the median rental rate. A value above 100 indicates that less than 30 per cent of the median income is required to rent a two- bedroom apartment, conversely, a value below 100 indicates that more than 30 per cent of the median income is required to rent the same unit. In general, as the indicator increases, the market becomes more affordable; as the indicator declines, the market becomes less affordable.

According to the results of the Rental Market Survey conducted by CMHC in October, the market remained tight in the Québec CMA, as the vacancy rate stayed at 0.6 per cent. As well, the availability rate, which measures the percentage of units up for rent, was also low (1 per cent). This indicator revealed that a small proportion of tenants intend to put an end to their leases. The percentages of vacant units and available units on the market were therefore low. Demand for apartments has been strong, and supply has increased only slightly in recent years. The economic conditions prevailing in the area have contributed to maintaining demand for rental housing, with the low unemployment rate and solid job market having stimulated the formation of young households and the migration of workers to the CMA. In addition, youth employment rose this year. It should be noted that young households with a primary maintainer aged under 25 years are most often (9 times out of 10) renters.

The Québec CMA has the tightest rental market in the province. And, the Québec area, along with the Regina CMA, also had the tightest rental market conditions in the country. Across the province of Quebec, conditions remained stable in the Gatineau, Montréal and Saguenay areas, as well, while they eased in Sherbrooke and Trois-Rivières. Vigorous demand Since the beginning of the decade, the rental market has been tight in the CMA. It should be pointed out that employment has grown and that the unemployment rate reached an all-time low in 2008 (4.5 per cent). During the first half of 2009, the labour market resisted the global recessionary climate, as employment increased in the first two quarters. However, a decline was noted in the third quarter. In the end, the number of jobs should remain stable in 2009 and rise slightly in 2010 (+0.5 per cent). This contrasts with the conditions observed in the other urban centres across the province, where decreases in employment have been noted since the beginning of the year.

The economic conditions therefore remained favourable in the area, as net migration rose to 4,350 people in 2007/2008, for a gain of 6 per cent over the year before. According to the available data, net migration will be high in the area for the current decade, reaching a total of about 40,000 people, compared to just 20,000 during the 1990s. The large number of new residents is significantly fuelling demand for rental housing. In fact, interregional migration is considerable and mainly composed of young people aged from 15 to 24 years (66 per cent). The international migration component has also increased in recent years, but the area is still losing some residents to other Canadian provinces.

Construction stimulated by market conditions In 2007 and 2008, traditional rental housing construction was less significant than in previous years. This situation, combined with a steady demand, contributed to maintaining the tight conditions observed on the market in the area. Between 2008 and 2009, 459 traditional rental housing were completed, which reflects a small increase in supply, considering the size of the Québec area market and the strong demand. This year, however, construction was more vigorous. In all, 924 traditional apartments were started from January to October 2009, compared to 423 during the same period in 2008.

Market very tight for larger units The larger the unit size, the tighter the market conditions as, in October, the vacancy rate was 0.1 per cent for three-bedroom apartments, compared to 1.6 per cent for bachelor units. The availability rate was also lower for larger apartments (0.5 per cent). As well, the supply of such units was more limited, accounting for an estimated 14 per cent of the universe1. with 10,400 three-bedroom apartments out of a total of 71,900 units. Two-bedroom apartments, for their part, made up 51 per cent of the survey universe.

Conditions tight in all market zones The conditions prevailing in the nine market zones in the CMA reflected a strong demand in all sectors. However, the rental market in the Haute-Ville zone has eased slightly since last year, as the vacancy rate there rose from 0.7 per cent to 1.4 per cent. And, the availability rate in this zone reached 2.2 per cent this pas October–the highest in the area. The estimated change in the average rent could explain this easing of the market in the Haute-Ville zone, as rents there rose by 4.5 per cent over 2008, for the strongest increase among all market zones in the Quebec area. In addition, this zone has the highest rents, with the average rent for two- bedroom apartments having reached $881 per month this past October, or 30 per cent more than the average for the CMA ($676 per month).

It should be noted that the western part of the South Shore (Charny, Saint-Romuald, Saint-Jean- Chrysostome) had a vacancy rate of 0 per cent this past October, compared to 0.2 per cent the year before, while the eastern part of the South Shore (Lévis, Pintendre) saw its market conditions ease this year (with a vacancy rate of 0.9 per cent, up from 0.4 per cent).

The competition was spirited, friendly and all for a good cause today as teams from across the region squared off at the Rideau Centre in Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) eighth annual gingerbread house build in support of Habitat for Humanity National Capital Region (NCR).

Several prizes were awarded, but the main winners will be local families whose dreams of homeownership will move closer to reality because of the event.

“Habitat for Humanity is a great organization that does amazing work here in Ottawa, across Canada and around the world,” said Ed Komarnicki, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and to the Minister of Labour. “I am delighted that CMHC is working with the local organization again this year to help raise money to build homes for families in the National Capital Region.”

In the competition’s professional category, local restaurants, bakeries and culinary schools competed to design and decorate gingerbread houses that evoke the holiday spirit. The top prize of $1,000 went to a stunning creation made by Fairmont Château Laurier. The second place prize of $500 was awarded to Cité collégiale, and third place went to Decadent Cakes with a $250 prize.

New to this year’s competition was an amateur category, which saw teams of families, friends and other ‘rookies’ compete to come up with the most tantalizing creation. The first prize of $500 went to Intempo Design Studio; second prize ($250) was awarded to Design First Interiors; and third prize ($100) went to Erskine Dredge & Associates Architects Inc.

A highlight of the annual event is the media competition, in which local media personalities compete against each other — and against the clock — in a live gingerbread house build. This year, teams from Virgin Radio, the Ottawa Citizen, the Ottawa Sun, 24 Hours Ottawa, A-Channel and CJOH CTV – Ottawa participated, and were presented with a certificate of appreciation by MP Komarnicki.

“CMHC has a special relationship with Habitat for Humanity, and we are pleased to be supporting them with today’s event,” said Karen Kinsley, President and CEO of CMHC. “This is a time of year when Canadians are looking to share their good fortune with others. Proceeds from CMHC’s gingerbread house competition will enable Habitat for Humanity to continue building safe and affordable homes for low-income working families in the National Capital Region.”

“Habitat for Humanity NCR is proud to partner with CMHC again this year for another excellent community event,” said Donna Hicks, Habitat NCR’s CEO. “Everyone is a winner in this event, especially the local families who will be helped by your generosity.”

The gingerbread homes will be on display at the Rideau Centre in the West Bay Bridge (near Grand & Toy) all weekend. Visitors are invited to tour the gingerbread village and bid on their favourite homes in a silent auction. All proceeds from the silent auction will go to support the home building programs of Habitat for Humanity NCR.

Habitat for Humanity NCR’s mission is to mobilize volunteers and community partners in building affordable housing and promoting home ownership as a means to breaking the cycle of poverty. Habitat has built 35 homes in the National Capital Region since 1993.

With some 1,850 new homes expected to be started in both 2009 and 2010, new home construction is expected to remain relatively stable. This is mostly due to a weak rebound of single-detached home construction,which is expected to increase by only 50 units from the 2009 level.

The weak rebound in single-detached home construction is mostly due to competition from the resale market, especially from the nearly new category (homes of 1-5 year vintage). Strong growth in new single-detached home construction before 2006 created a large stock, and some of them are being offered for sale in the resale market. These homes are very popular among doctors, nurses or other health care or natural sciences related professionals. During the past few years, they tended to purchase new from builders because the resale market was tight. However, with a larger offering of nearly new homes on the market, they tend to find what they want in the resale market. With listings of resale homes expected to remain high, these professionals will tend to purchase from resale than directly from builders.

There are reports that some builders may be building up inventories in order to better compete with the resale market, by being able to have homes ready for customers to move into as soon as the transaction closes. However, at the end of September, the level of completed and unabsorbed homes dropped to 99 units, down from nearly 200 units earlier this year.

Apartment construction will be relatively strong in 2009 and 2010. Overall apartment starts will reach 850 units in 2009, and 800 units in 2010.Many of them will continue to be in the high-end rental category. Empty nesters and retirees who like the convenience of an apartment lifestyle are the key customer group for these apartments.

Condominium apartments are also becoming a factor in the London housing market. The popularity of high-end rental apartments among empty nesters and retirees has resulted in some showing interest in ownership. Developers are beginning to build high rise condominiums to satisfy this demand.

The CMHC forecast calls for 900 single-detached starts in 2009 followed by 1,000 in 2010. The 2009 production will be the lowest number of single starts since 2005 when there were 751 foundations poured. The decline in single-detached starts in 2009 compared to 2008 is due to a number of factors, including managing a build-up in the supply of new housing units, consumer resistance to price escalation, and heightened competition from resale housing. Reduced in-migration and a moderating economy in 2009 have also played a role in this market adjustment.

At mid-year, single-detached starts were 65 per cent below the historically high 2008 figure for the same period. The slowdown in new construction has allowed the inventory of complete and unabsorbed units to decline and a stronger second half of production is expected. At the end of August, single-detached starts had recorded two consecutive months of year-over-year increases. Though there has been a recent uptick in starts activity, CMHC expects builders will limit production to prevent a rise in inventory.

In terms of total supply, there were more than 800 single-detached units under construction or completed but unoccupied at the end of August. While this is the third highest supply on record for the month of August, total supply has been in decline, on a year-over-year basis, since December 2008.

The bulk of single units in supply are those in various stages of construction. The units under construction have been declining on a year-over-year basis since October 2008. The decline in the units under construction figure is due to slower starts since June 2008. As stated, only recently have starts increased on a year-over-year basis.

The number of single units that are completed and unoccupied now lies at 142 units, up from 115 one year earlier. Though higher than last year at this time, the completed and unoccupied count has seen monthly declines since December 2008 when inventory peaked at 244 units. Competition from the resale market may be having an impact on new single absorption. Industry sources state that investors who purchased new homes in the previous two years are now creating competition for homebuilders by listing their homes on the resale market at competitive prices.

To the end of August, there have been 757 single absorptions in 2009 compared to 819 at this time in 2008. Average absorption now stands at 95 units monthly compared to the 110 units absorbed monthly in 2008.

The St. John’s area housing market has been driven by a timely blend of resilient consumer spending, large capital projects and improved employment, which have resulted in reducing out-migration and continued population growth. Despite the recent global economic uncertainty, strong fundamentals have, and will continue to support demand for housing throughout the remainder of 2009 and in 2010. Accordingly, growth in the local housing market is expected to continue. The buoyant local renovation sector will be stimulated by the home renovation tax credit. Also, historically low mortgage rates have reduced the cost of borrowing, but some buyers remain sensitive to the considerable price growth that has occurred in this market. Personal income growth has been aided by wage gains and tax cuts and this income growth has offset higher house prices somewhat and will continue to provide support to housing starts in 2010. Overall, the positive outlook for the St. John’s area housing market will be reinforced by favourable trends in demographic and economic fundamentals, as well as consumer spending and on-going economic momentum supported by a lengthy list of major capital projects.

Despite the global economic situation over the past year, several planned and realized major capital projects continue to inject stimulus into the local economy and contributed to increased resiliency on the part of consumers. Consumers, a key component of economic growth in 2008 through related spending on retail, auto and housing activity, have been more cautious in 2009, but still remain positive overall, as spending activity continues to show growth. However, natural declines in offshore oil production will dampen GDP growth this year and next. During 2008, oil production declined nearly seven per cent over 2007 levels. This year, oil production is expected to decrease 21 per cent, with declines at all three producing oil fields. Weaker offshore oil production will dampen growth over the 2009 to 2010 period, although increased royalties received by the province will contribute to economic growth. Weak commodity prices have resulted in decreased and/ or suspended mineral exploration and mining extraction activity in the interior region of Newfoundland, as well as Labrador this year. However, global resource prices have begun to rise again, which will add to economic growth in 2010. Coming off the heels of real GDP growth of 7.9 per cent in 2007 for NL and additional growth of 1.8 per cent in 2008, expect a 3.8 per cent decline in 2009 real GDP, led by lower oil, mineral and newsprint exports. A two per cent rebound in economic growth is expected in 2010.

With record sales posted during the past several years, the St. John’s area resale market is expected to cool slightly in terms of total unit sales. Accordingly, the forecast calls for MLS® sales of 3,450 units this year, down ten per cent from 3,835 in 2008, with 3,575 sales expected in 2010. With many newly built homes now selling through the MLS® system, healthy residential construction activity will continue to have a positive impact on total MLS® sales. Unprecedented housing market activity in 2008 favoured sellers, with a market characterized by above average unit sales, very low available inventory and 20 per cent average price growth. However, throughout this year, the market has favoured buyers. A marginal downward trend in sales has resulted in more inventory, whilprices have continued to advance. In fact, active listings or inventory have trended 33 per cent higher in 2009 compared to last year. With demand expected to cool only slightly over the forecast period, unit sales will remain historically strong, but will noexceed recent record levels. While increasingly favourable for buyers, weaker resale market conditions have proved challenging for some sellers, resulting in fewer offers on higher priced listings, with offers often significantly below list price. With increased inventory available tchoose from, many buyers have farewell in their search for an existing home this year and in some cases, people are being swayed away from the higher-priced new home market. The growing new versus existing house price premium has resulted in increased first-time buyer activity within the lower-priced resale market and this trend will likely continue, with prices expected to head higher.

Employment in the Charlottetown area is forecast to post a slight decline this year before posting a moderate increase in 2010. During the first three quarters of 2009, the decrease in employment in Charlottetown was dispersed among all industries except the public service sector, which posted a small increase. Despite the modest declines in employment in 2009, the capital region remains attractive for job seekers compared to other parts of the province. This fact has lead to the continued trend of urbanization, as Islanders continue to move to the capital region from more rural parts of the province.

Positive net-migration is one of the key factors that has contributed to the strong housing market over the past seven years. As of July 2009, the population of Prince Edward Island was estimated at 140,985; an increase of 1,534 persons or 1.1 per cent from 2008. While this increase in population was the result of both a natural increase and positive net migration, the vast majority was the result of the latter. From July 2008 to July 2009, 1,793 international immigrants chose the Island as their new home, which is the highest annual level since recording began in 1971. The main reason for this substantial increase in international migration was the increased effort that the province has allocated to this initiative. The results seen in 2007 and 2008 are expected to be the start of a new upward trend in international migration with preliminary data for 2009 indicating that the year could end up showing an even larger inflow of people. The local housing market is benefitting from this initiative as many of these households are relocating to the capital region, and as such require housing within all tenure types. While the aforementioned data

While the aforementioned data on immigration is positive, it is for the province as a whole. It is important to note that the capital region consistently outperforms the province. For the last census period ending in 2006, the Charlottetown CA, which encompasses the entire urban area around the city, recorded a population growth of 1,391 people or 2.4 per cent. While there was some natural population growth during this period, the majority of the increase was due to in-migration. For the Charlottetown area it had been typical that about 70 per cent of the people moving to the capital region came from elsewhere in the province, while the remainder were from other regions of the country. This ratio had remained fairly constant since the early 1990′s, but since 2006 it has started to change. The reason for this is twofold, with both the movement of people to the west and the recent influx in international immigrants. As earlier referenced, the influx of international immigration is expected to end up being even stronger in 2009 than 2008, due to the popularity of the province’s programs with new immigrants. This will especially benefit the capital region as the majority of the people are settling in the area. This trend should continue to bolster the local housing market over the forecast period, as the population continues to grow.

As a result of the aforementioned market forces, the Charlottetown housing market is expected to exceed the level set in 2008. Although single starts in Charlottetown recorded a decline so far in 2009, multiple starts at the end of the third quarter are on track to have the strongest year since 1988. Single starts are expected to decline 25 per cent in 2009, when compared to 2008. This decline was expected, as many potential homeowners are taking a wait and see approach, before making any large purchases. In addition, single home construction in Charlottetown posted seven years of impressive growth that mirrored the national trend. As such, the decline in 2009 is seen as the market returning to a more sustainable level. In contrast to the decline in singles, multiple starts will end the year close to setting a new record high. The strength in multiple starts is the result of several factors. The increase in multiple unit starts also created a situation where there was a temporary oversupply of rental units that was not fully absorbed until the end of 2007. However, one area where new construction has continued to remain strong is multiple units intended for homeownership. A key reason for the increased activity in this part of the market is the relatively lower cost of semi-detached and row units compared to single-detached homes. Despite the forecasted increase in semi-detached units over the next two years, it is expected that the overall housing market will remain strong during the forecast period. The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range.

Residential construction and existing home sales levels
in Halifax are expected to rebound in 2010 following declines in 2009, according to
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC’s) Housing Market Outlook
released today.
“New home construction in Halifax will rebound by 16 per cent in 2010,” said Matthew
Gilmore, senior market analyst with CMHC’s Atlantic Business Centre. “Employment
and wage levels have hit new record highs in 2009 while interest rates have been
historically low. These factors will be supportive of growth in the industry in 2010,”
Gilmore said.
Apartment-style construction will outpace other styles with 800 units expected to start in
2010 – an increase of 33 per cent.
Existing home sales will rebound by over six per cent in 2010. The average price of an
existing home is expected to climb by 2.5 per cent reaching $243,500 next year.
As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of
experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable
and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing
market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the
housing industry in making vital decisions.

Home sales will continue at a brisk pace through the remainder of this year and into 2010. More sales combined with fewer active listings will push the average MLS® home price higher in 2010.

Home starts will pick up over the next 15 months, but remain below levels recorded in recent years. The upturn in the resale market will contribute to an increase in home starts as builders see demand returning to the market. New and resale home inventories are being absorbed, providing an incentive to start new residential projects.

Steady population growth through migration, an improving job market and low mortgage rates will provide support for homeownership demand through 2010.

Housing market conditions in Greater Vancouver1 will favour home sellers into the first half of next year. The recovery of home sales that began during the spring and summer months will continue into 2010. Home sales ramped up during the past few months due to lower home prices and low mortgage rates. These two factorscombined with increasing real wages, have meant improved affordability for home buyers. While home prices are rising, continued low mortgage rates into mid 2010 will keep home buyers active. Home sales in the first few months of 2010 may be below average, as transportation route changes associated with the Olympic Games hamper mobility.

The number of active resale listings will be near the five-year average level next year. After peaking in fall 2008, active listings have trended lower. While the flow of new listings entering the market has been increasing, high sales levels have kept the total stock of active listings dwindling in recent months. The recent upturn in home prices may draw more sellers to the marketincreasing the supply of homes for sale. Look for more balanced market conditions to prevail in the second half of 2010.
Home prices in most Vancouver

municipalities will continue to trend up in 2010, but at a modest pace of two to four per cent. Home prices hit their lowest point in March of 2009, having fallen 17 per cent from their peak level. In just six months, thaverage price in Greater Vancouver saapproximately two per cent below thpeak value. However, the recovery in home prices has been uneven across the region. While prices in the City of Vancouver have already surpassed the previous peak, prices in other centres remain well below peak levels(see figure 2). These centres with prices still below peak, will see prices trending up over the next 15 months, as buyers take advantage of lower prices and favourable mortgage interest rates.