Renters are having an easier time finding accommodations in Victoria this year. A sluggish local economy and labour market, and a recent surge in homeownership has moved vacancy rates up. As the level of employment has edged lower, relatively fewer people have moved to the region. Historically low mortgage rates and lower home prices reduced monthly mortgage carrying costs, and encouraged some renters to exit the rental market in favour of homeownership. Near record levels of apartment condominium resales recorded across Greater Victoria during the second and third quarters of 2009 reflected this movement from rental to homeownership.

Vacancy rates for both apartments and town homes moved up in the Victoria CMA over the past year. The average apartment vacancy rate edged up to 1.4 per cent, following four years at 0.5 per cent. Similarly, the average vacancy rate for rental townhouses shifted up from 0.1 per cent last October, to 1.8 per cent in October 2009. The trend of increasing vacancies was widespread in the region. Higher vacancy rates were observed across all Greater Victoria municipalities. Both the one and two bedroom segments of the local apartment rental markets recorded increased vacancies. While apartment vacancy rates in Victoria increased in 2009, they remain low compared to other major British Columbia markets (2.1 per cent in the Vancouver CMA and 3.0 per cent in the Kelowna CMA) and the provincial average (2.8 per cent).1

Softer demand for rental housing in 2009 has put less upward pressure on rents. Average one and two bedroom apartment rents edged up 4.5 and five per cent in 2009, respectively.2 This growth was less robust than the 6.8 per cent average rent increase in 2008, when vacancy rates were at their lowest. A substantial range exists between the rents observed across Victoria CMA municipalities. For an average two- bedroom apartment, Oak Bay was home to the highest rents ($1,206), while the lowest rents were found in Esquimalt ($858). When compared to the provincial average, two-bedroom rents are on par, while average one- bedroom rents are eight per cent lower in Victoria.

The slackness in the resale market has directly impacted the new home market as has the slowing economy. Single-detached starts will fall to 160 units in 2009 and 170 in 2010, as the market comes more into line with long term demographic requirements. CMHC expects 30 row, condominium and apartment starts in 2009 and another 55 in 2010. Relatively tight rental market conditions and reasonable take up of condominium units will result in some of this activity over the next 18 months.

As Figure 2 indicates, there has been improvement in household incomes in Thunder Bay and with required income being more or less flat, affordability has improved. Next year, with home prices and incomes rising modestly, homeownership should remain an affordable option and therefore demand should strengthen slightly.

After rising 4.3 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively in 2007 and 2008, the New Home Price Index for Sudbury-Thunder Bay will rise in 2009 and 2010 but only modestly given the slowdown in demand.

Vacancy rates have come down steadily since 1998 in Thunder Bay while two bedroom rents are the lowest amongst other centres in Ontario. Lack of new supply and healthy demand due to strong enrolment numbers at Lakehead University and Confederation College contribute to the demand picture, not-to-mention in-migration from Northwestern Ontario from retirees and education and/or job seekers. CMHC expects the vacancy rate to fall again in 2009 to 1.6 per cent before increasing to 2.0 in 2010 as resale market activity picks up bringing households out of rental housing into homeownership. Rents should escalate in 2009 and 2010 given continued strong demand for rental accommodation.

Developers have plans for condominium in 2010 and beyond. A steady supply condominium units coming onto the market over the last twenty years has given Thunder Bay a nice mix of housing. This type and tenure of housing gives the city some allure, especially as empty nesters from the region look to retire to this city. Pricing will be very important as this product is primarily targeted at empty nesters who do not typically want to pay more for a condo than what they obtain from the sale of the family home or other homeownership unit.

After hitting a record high in 2008, Thunder Bay sales have fallen 18 per cent in 2009. July was the only month to register a year-over-year increase in sales. Sales will fall twenty per cent in 2009 and CMHC estimates a relatively small six per cent increase next year to 1,400 sales. Expect a gradually improving economy as low mortgage rates will positively impact the market next year.

The shortage of active listings in the Thunder Bay existing home market will exert pressure on prices. Although sales are still reasonably solid given last year’s all-time record in the Thunder Bay market, the sales to active listings ratio is unquestionably in a strong balanced to seller’s market position. The supply- demand relationship will cause price appreciation to continue barring some unforeseen economic shock. Watch for average prices to rise four per cent in 2009 and another four per cent in 2010.

The Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), along with Jim Kenyon, Minister Responsible for the Yukon Housing Corporation, today launched the construction phase of two new housing projects for seniors in Faro and Teslin.

The $4.7 million federal contribution to these projects comes through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the government’s plan to stimulate the economy and create jobs during the global recession. Recognizing the distinctive needs of the North, Canada’s Economic Action Plan provides $200 million, over two years, including $50 million for Yukon, to support the renovation and the construction of new social housing units. Overall, the Economic Action Plan includes $2 billion for new and existing social housing, plus up to $2 billion in loans to municipalities for housing-related infrastructure.

“The Government of Canada is committed to providing Canadians a hand up to those who need it the most,” said Minister Finley. “Through this investment we are helping make an important difference in the lives of individuals and families in Faro and Teslin who are trying to build a better future for themselves.”

“With funding from Canada, Yukon government is launching several important housing projects in the territory,” said Minister Kenyon. “Access to affordable and accommodating housing gives seniors the option of staying in their community as they grow older. Faro and Teslin will benefit from retaining this important generation within their population.”

Canada’s Economic Action Plan (CEAP) will provide $2 million to construct a seniors’ residence in Faro, which has one of the highest ratio of seniors and near-seniors among Yukon’s municipalities. The residence will contain six 1-bedroom suites.

CEAP funding of $2.7 million was approved for seniors’ residence in Teslin. The residence will contain seven 1-bedroom suites and one 2-bedroom suite. Two of the seven units are for seniors with a disability.

Construction in both communities is underway and will continue throughout the winter, generating employment for trades. Completion is anticipated for the fall of 2010.

Both buildings are wood frame construction and feature SuperGreen energy efficiency standards and Accommodating Home standards for a barrier-free living environment.

Canada’s Economic Action Plan builds on the Government of Canada’s commitment in 2008 of more than $1.9 billion, over the next five years, to improve and build new affordable housing and help the homeless.

Total housing starts in New Brunswick are expected to see a
moderate rebound to 3,525 units in 2010 following a decline to 3,400 units in 2009, according to
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) Housing Market Outlook released today.
“Following an expected reduction in MLS® sales and residential construction throughout 2009, a
moderate increase in activity is expected next year in New Brunswick,” said Claude Gautreau,
CMHC’s senior market analyst for New Brunswick. Although housing activity has diminished in
2009, economic fundamentals in the province remain strong, highlighted by historically high
employment levels. These conditions are expected to persist over the forecast period.
In New Brunswick’s three large urban areas – Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton – residential
starts will trail last year’s pace to the end of the year, followed by a moderate rebound in 2010.
The existing home market is expected to follow the same general trend with stronger price
growth next year and increased sales.
As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to
help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes.
CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and
knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

New Home Construction Not as Robust as Before New home construction in Barrie will come in at a lower tally than last year. Single-detached homes will continue to make up the majority of a smaller new construction pie. Next year, new construction will increase from this year, as the economy begins to improve. From 2010 to 2013 new housing construction will grow at a relatively subdued level. With less demand for new housing, the average price of a newly constructed single- detached home will decrease.

The number of new housing starts is expected to come in significantly lower this year than last year’s total tally. Total starts in Barrie Census Metropolitan Area (from here on referred to as CMA) will come in at 340, less than a quarter of the homes built in 2008. Next year total starts will begin to improve and come in at close to 390 units. Currently, the number of homes under construction and inventories of new unsold homes are both declining. Consequently, improving demand next year will translate into starts fairly quickly.

Even though apartments, and to a lesser degree row homes, are expected to be significant components of all new construction in the CMA, single-detached homes will continue to be the most preferred type of housing built in Barrie. Single- detached starts will make up close to 61 per cent of all new construction this year in the CMA while apartments will make up close to 27 per cent and row homes 12 per cent. Looking forward, the recovery is expected to be slow. With lower new housing demand, as a result of the economic downturn, and the slow recovery, the average price of a new single-detached home is expected to drop from last year and finish this year at $340,000 a drop of five per cent. In 2010, as recovery strengthens the average price of a new single-detached home will be negative but by a much lesser margin than this year. Resale Homes Market Resale Market Relatively Unscathed by Downturn homes market will fare better this year.) The SNLR (Sales-to-New- Listings-Ratio) will remain near the upper bound of balanced market territory. The average price of an existing home will grow modestly this year and at the rate of inflation next year. Housing affordability will deteriorate slightly as modest price growth and increasing mortgage rates raise monthly carrying costs. In spite of the slight deterioration in affordability, the Barrie CMA will remain an attractive housing market when compared to other urban centres.

Both sales and new listings of existing homes will lose some strength from last year.(In comparison to the new homes market though, the existing homes market will fare better this year.) The SNLR (Sales-to-New- Listings-Ratio) will remain near the upper bound of balanced market territory. The average price of an existing home will grow modestly this year and at the rate of inflation next year. Housing affordability will deteriorate slightly as modest price growth and increasing mortgage rates raise monthly carrying costs. In spite othe slight deterioration in affordability, the Barrie CMA will remain an attractive housing market when compared to other urban centres.

Similar to the new home market, the resale home market will also feel the effects of the economic downturn. This year total existing home sales will end the year close to 3,900, a drop from last year of five per cent. In 2010, existing home sales will decrease slightly once again but by a lesser amount than this year as the market will begin showing signs of recovery and stabilization.

PEI is a great location for the novice investor to get started. Properties are generally less expensive and while they have risen over the years and continue to do so, the up and down movement is not so great and therefore PEI real estate offers an investment scenario more suited to the beginner. However with land prices throughout Canada on the rise again, and I notice a larger recent rise in home prices here, you can be sure that you will still have a solid investment.

Real estate offers much greater potential to make money than many other forms of investment and does not generally require the services of managers as in the case of mutual funds. You will want to carefully research your market potential and you will, in the case of PEI, first of all decide whether you will be buying residential properties to rent year round or cottages which rent at much higher rates but only for the summer.

It is important when deciding what to invest in here on PEI to determine the amount of money you have on hand and what you can afford to invest for the “long-haul”, say anything up to ten years. Some investors get caught in the liquidity crunch and need to get their money out of the investment in a hurry. This means selling early and at a disadvantage and can result in losses.

If you feel this might apply to you then you should probably refrain from getting into the cottage market. The properties cost much more, are harder to re-sell in a hurry and require more work to rent. Small family rental homes provide year round income, require less maintenance having residents year round, and are generally easier to sell should you need to.

If you own your own home now then you are already a PEI real estate investor. If you have a sizeable equity built up in your home you can use this equity to smooth the mortgage application. Most investors are going to buy several if not numerous properties as they build their real estate portfolio and they are going to have to use that portfolio as financial leverage to acquire the next property. So you will probably start with your own home now!

The cities of Charlottetown and Summerside on the island offer a good selection of current single, duplex and triplex home rentals. Of course you can purchase some of the larger character homes and convert these to apartments. It is a good idea to look for homes that are in need of repair. Some owners will sell just because they don’t have the cash or desire to fix up a rental and it is getting to the point where it will need fixing to be rentable.

If this is the case make sure that you do your home-work and know the condition of the home and the cost to repair. Bring in a home inspector and make sure that you get quotes from reputable contractors on the work recommended.

Also ensure the neighborhood is suitable – however the island neighborhoods are generally good, the “bad neighborhoods aren’t really “Bad”.

Do your research and you will be growing your income through a steady stream of rental payments and your real estate portfolio will be bringing you that much closer to retirement.

http://real-estate-direct.com/real-estate-resource/investment-in-pei-real-estate/

brought by Noishe Alexander, CFC CEO

A record-breaking number of homes were sold in Ottawa last month, up 3.9 per cent from May 2008, and for more money.

The Ottawa Real Estate Board said 1,969 residential properties were sold in May, compared to 1,896 a year ago. The May figure is a 19-per-cent increase from a month ago.

The average sale price of homes sold last month was $312,045, an increase of 5.3 per cent from May 2008.

Ottawa Real Estate Board president Rick Snell said the news is wonderful considering Canada’s turbulent economic climate.

“And it’s great for the Ottawa economy,” he said, “because every time there’s a sale, it generates all kinds of business throughout the Ottawa economy. People move, they buy furniture, they buy appliances, they decorate, they renovate.”

The fact that Ottawans enjoy the benefits of living in a real estate bubble is not news. With stable government employment and a highly educated population enjoying steady incomes for the most part, the city’s May figures don’t surprise the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“We have a very stable market in Ottawa,” CMHC senior Ottawa market analyst Sandra Pérez Torres said Wednesday. “Year-to-date employment shows positive numbers. We have, until April 2009, a 0.1 per cent increase, so despite the fact that some sectors have decreases from last year — such as in trade, manufacturing, transportation — public administration and services are picking up the slack.”

“Even construction employment has increased significantly from last year.”

Pérez Torres said consumers are also continuing to take advantage of low interest rates.

“There are other, smaller regions in Ontario like Thunder Bay, for example, which is showing positive numbers as well. But in general, when we compare with the bigger picture, Ottawa is one of the best ones, showing a very, very positive outlook.”

The May numbers are in keeping with 2009 Ottawa real estate market projections released in December, in which RE/MAX and CMHC predicted a slight rise in prices and no drastic decline in home sales.

Ottawa is becoming more of a sellers’ market, Pérez Torres added. The trend began in April, and she predicts it will continue over the summer. Traditionally, Snell said, the market peaks in May and June before beginning a gradual decline into the fall.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/Business/merry+month+Ottawa+home+sellers/1660731/story.html

presented by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

For the second month in a row, the Canadian housing market has recorded an increasing number of sales in most areas around the country.

“Conditions in the resale housing market have improved markedly this Spring,” according to TREB President Maureen O’Neill. “Home purchases have increased as households have taken advantage of low interest rates and slightly lower home prices.”

While April sales remained lower than last year, the housing market gained momentum on a month-over-month basis.

Paul Penner, President of the Fraser Valley real estate board, says current conditions have created one of the best buying opportunities in years. “REALTORS® have successfully communicated to their sellers to be more realistic with their prices, which is why we’ve seen a 29% increase in sales from March to April.”

Penner also attributes the increase to all-time historically low interest rates and still relatively high inventory for Fraser Valley, although it is dropping rapidly.

Below is a brief summary of sales activities in some areas across the country:

British Columbia
Surrey, May 4, 2009: The Fraser Valley real estate market continued to show signs of rebalancing in April with the number of sales increasing for the third month in a row while the volume of available properties stayed constant. Benchmark prices for detached homes and condominiums also showed increases over the last three months.

In April, there were 1,293 sales processed on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), reflecting a 28% decrease compared to the 1,787 sales in April of last year, however, a 29% increase over March sales. At the same time, the Board received 44% fewer new listings compared to one year ago, 2,477 in contrast to 4,458 in April 2008, helping to stabilize the number of active listings in the Fraser Valley at 9,855.

The Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price of Fraser Valley townhouses decreased 11.6% from $333,982 in April 2008 to $295,078 in April 2009. That decrease, however, slowed to 0.1% during the last three months. The benchmark price of apartments also decreased year-over-year by 11.4% going from $260,037 in April of last year to $230,337 in April 2009. Similar to detached homes, the benchmark price for apartments has increased by 4.4% over the last three months.

Ontario

Toronto, May 6, 2009: Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,107 sales in April, down 7% from April 2008. While April sales remained lower than last year, the housing market gained momentum on a month-over-month basis. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in April, at 80,900, was up 26% from March and up two-thirds compared to January’s ten-year low.

The average price for April transactions was $385,641, down 3% from last year.

Ottawa, May 5, 2009: Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,594 residential properties in April through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® system compared with 1,560 in April 2008, an increase of 2.2%. There were 1,162 sales in March 2009.

The average price of residential properties, including condominiums, sold in April in the Ottawa area was $298,150, an increase of 1% over April 2008. The average price for a condominium-class property was $216,502, an increase of 2.8% over April 2008. The average price of a residential-class property was $318,900, an increase of 0.7% over April 2008.

Alberta

Calgary, May 1, 2009: Sales activity of single family Calgary metro homes was 1,290 in the month of April 2009, showing an increase of 19% from 1,086 sales in March 2009. This was a decrease of 5% from April 2008, when single family home sales were 1,363. The number of condominium sales for the month of April 2009 was 579, an increase of 30% from the 446 condominium transactions recorded in March 2009, and a decrease of 0.3% from April 2008, when 581 condominiums changed hands.

The average price of a single family Calgary metro home in April 2009 was $426,311, showing an increase of 1% from March 2009, when the average price was $420,354, and showing a decrease of 10% from April 2008, when the average price was $474,564. The average price of a Calgary metro condominium was $277,953, showing a 2% decrease from March 2009, when the average price was $284,056, and a decrease of 11% over last year, when the average price was $312,586. Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas.

Saskatchewan

Saskatoon, May 1, 2009: April’s real estate market continued to correct with fewer listings being taken easing higher than normal inventory levels. Saskatoon REALTORS® assisted 353 buyers to find their dream home, a decrease of15% from April 2008 when 413 units were sold.

REALTORS® placed 694 properties on the market in April, a decrease of 23% from 2008 when 896 homes were listed for sale. Buyers had 1499 properties to select from, down substantially from a market high of 1,748 homes for sale in September 2008.

The average selling price for April was $275,455, down from April 2008 when the average price was $306,031.

Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia, April 17, 2009: Though Nova Scotia’s March real estate sales activity was down 15% from last March, it was still the highest level of housing sales activity in the province in five months, as reported by the Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS®. In January 2009, the year-over-year decline was 32%.

The value of all residential transactions recorded through the MLS® system in Nova Scotia totalled $130.5 million in March 2009, a 16% decrease from year-ago levels. The total value of all MLS® sales activity in Nova Scotia was $137.4 million, a year-over-year decline of 17% from March 2008.

The average price for MLS® home sales in Nova Scotia was down slightly in March 2009 compared to levels one year earlier. Edging down 1% from March 2008, the provincial average price for home sales was $188,651.

The MLS® average price rose by 1.6% in Halifax-Dartmouth, to $229,548. The small decrease in provincial average price was the result of fewer sales in this region, where homes are priced higher than in other markets across the province. Sales activity was down by 19% year-over-year in Halifax-Dartmouth, compared to the 15% provincial decline. This resulted in fewer transactions at the higher end of the price spectrum being included in the calculation of the provincial average price.

http://www.whistler-realestate.com/Blog/Canadian-Real-Estate-Market-Watch-for-May

]]> http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/06/canadian-real-estate-market-watch-for-may/feed/ 0 http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/06/canadian-real-estate-falls-as-mortgage-rates-rise/ http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/06/canadian-real-estate-falls-as-mortgage-rates-rise/#comments Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:26:16 +0000 admin http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=131 The U.S. isn’t the only country facing increasing mortgage rates. Several Canadian banks have increased their posted mortgage rates by .2% as housing value decreases are accelerating. For more on this, see the following article from Property Wire.

Residential property prices are continuing to fall and now there are fears that increases in mortgage rates could put off a lot of investors, especially first time buyers.

Canadian home prices fell 5.8% in March from the same month a year earlier, a faster pace of decline than in February, according to the latest published figures from the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index. It also shows that prices were down 8.5% nationally from the peak in August last year.

Western Canadian home prices were hardest-hit, with Vancouver leading with a 9.6% decline in March from a year earlier, while Calgary saw prices fall 8.4%, and Toronto saw a 6.9% slide. Halifax reported the smallest decline at 0.8%.

Montreal and Ottawa bucked the trend in March with property prices rising 2.9% and 1%, respectively. The index also showed home prices fell 4.1% year-over-year in February.

Analysts were confident that first time buyers were the key to recovery in the market but now Canada’s biggest banks are putting up key mortgage rates. Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal, Toronto-Dominion Bank, the Bank of Nova Scotia and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce are all increasing their posted rates on five-year, fixed-rate mortgages by 0.2% to 5.45%.

Paula Roberts, a mortgage broker with Mortgage Intelligence, said she hopes that buyers will not be put off by the new rates. She explained that the rises are coming from ‘abnormally low’ levels and there are still have plenty of opportunity to take advantage of lower borrowing costs because not all lenders will pass on the increases.

But there are fears that rates will go up even further as the government is concerned about inflation.

‘Certainly there is the recognition that interest rates are going to have to go up both because of the need to rein some of this monetary stimulus in once the economy gains traction and the level of debt that is being issued by governments,’ said Toronto-Dominion economist Grant Bishop.

And Canadians are borrowing less according to a report from Statistics Canada. ‘Net new mortgage borrowing contracted during the first three months of 2009, as investment in residential construction and activity in the resale housing market continued to decline,’ it said.

Note from Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO
This article has been reposted from PropertyWire. View the article on PropertyWire’s international real estate news website here.

Highlights

St. John’s, Newfoundland - Credit bribriTO, Flickr

Moishe Alexander says St. John’s area vacancy rate was 0.8 per cent in 2008 versus 2.6 per cent in 2007. Increased economic activity and employment supported stronger demand in the St. John’s area rental market in 2008.  Average two bedroom rent was $630 across the three zones surveyed. St. John’s West (zone 2) posted the lowest vacancy rate in the region at 0.7 per cent.

St. John’s Area Vacancy Rate Lower in 2008

Moishe Alexander says the vacancy rate within the St. John’s census metropolitan area (CMA) was lower in 2008 and average rents increased across the board. This marks the second consecutive decline in the vacancy rate and largely reflects the impact of increased economic activity and strong employment throughout the region. Growth in residential construction activity, combined with record MLS® sales and a tight supply of existing homes for sale, translated into substantial price growth, making the transition from renting to home ownership challenging for renter households. CMHC’s rental market survey conducted during the first two weeks of October included the enumeration of 3,636 privately initiated apartment units within the St. John’s CMA. The survey identified only 30 vacancies within the rental stock, translating into a low vacancy rate of 0.8 per cent. This represents a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the 2.6 per cent vacancy rate recorded in 2007 and marks the second time since 2003 in which the vacancy rate decreased. At 0.8 per cent, the vacancy rate reached its lowest level since 1980. The vacancy rate was lower in every zone within the St. John’s area this year. The biggest change was within Remainder of Metro Area (zone 3), with a rate of 0.8 per cent compared to 6.1 per cent in 2007. St. John’s East (zone 1) posted a vacancy rate of 1.0 per cent versus 2.0 per cent last year. In St. John’s West (zone 2), the vacancy rate declined to 0.7 per cent from the 2.3 per cent recorded in 2007. St. John’s City (zones 1-2) posted a vacancy rate of 0.8 per cent compared to 2.1 per cent a year earlier. Throughout the St. John’s region, vacancies were highest in bachelor units at 1.4 per cent and lowest in three bedroom units at 0.4 per cent. The recorded vacancy rate for one and two bedroom apartments was 0.9 and 0.7 per cent, respectively.  Further analysis of the private rental stock indicated an interesting trend in that the larger the structure size, the lower the vacancy rate. In other words, it was more difficult to find rental accommodations in larger apartment buildings in 2008. Structures containing three to five units experienced the highest vacancy level at 2.0 per cent. Buildings with six to 19 units recorded a vacancy rate of 1.7 per cent. Those with 20 to 49 units came in at 0.7 per cent. Larger structures containing 50 to 99 units recorded a near zero vacancy rate of 0.2 per cent, while buildings containing more than 100 units experienced zero vacancies. Based on these results, expect to see the largest rent increases in 50 plus unit buildings in 2009. The following percentage change in average rent is based on the fixed sample, which includes structures common to the survey for both years (2007/2008). After mixed results last year, average monthly rents increased modestly for all bedroom types in 2008. Bachelor unit average rents were $487. Based on the fixed sample, bachelor rents increased 5.3 per cent. One bedroom average rents were $558. Based on the fixed sample, one bedroom rents went up 3.6 per cent. Two bedroom units posted average rents of $630. Based on the fixed sample, two bedroom rents posted a 3.8 per cent increase. Three bedroom rents came in at $691 during the October survey. Based on the fixed sample, three bedroom rents grew 4.4 per cent. Overall, the total average rent for all bedroom types combined advanced 4.0 per cent based on the fixed sample. The increase in private apartment average rents is a reflection of the upward pressure low vacancies are exerting on rents, as well as higher energy costs and landlords’ attempts to offset the increased costs associated with operating and maintaining their respective apartment buildings.

Once again, current rent levels restricted the construction of multiunit rental projects in 2008, making the rent/return equation uneconomical. This has been the case for more than 20 years now within the local rental market.  However, the dynamics are changing, with fewer private owners and increasing corporate ownership.  These corporate entities have a vested interest in the local rental market, having purchased many apartment buildings in recent years.  Accordingly, expect to see these and other players engage in new multi-unit construction activity once average rents reach project feasibility levels in the coming years.

The performance of the local rental market is driven by a number of factors. These factors have remained fairly consistent over time and involve both demand and supply influences. Key factors influencing rental demand over the short term include economic activity, employment, in-migration and the home ownership rate. The supply side of the local rental market is impacted by additions to the rental stock via new construction or conversion of existing vacant space into apartment units. On the other side of the equation, the supply of rental units can also be reduced by conversion activity when existing apartment units are converted to condominiums or hotels. On rare occasions, demolition of rental stock for alternate site use or loss due to fire, may also serve to reduce the supply of rental stock.

While CMHC’s rental market survey historically covered structures containing three or more apartment units only, both demand and supply for this stock has always been influenced by competition from the newly surveyed (since 2007) secondary rental market. This market consists of single-detached; semi-detached, row and duplex; and other-primarily accessory suites.  Statistics for secondary rented units exclude apartments in purpose built rental structures with three rental units or more, condominium apartments, units in institutions, and any dwelling whose type could not be identified in the survey. The estimated number of households in secondary rented units within the St. John’s CMA is 12,687 with an average rent of $618 compared to $592 in 2007. Refer to tables 5.1 and 5.2 for detailed secondary rental market survey results.

Rental Affordability Indicator

Moishe Alexander says according to CMHC’s rental affordability indicator, rental affordability in the St. John’s CMA rental market decreased in 2008, having improved the previous year. The cost of renting a median priced two-bedroom apartment increased five per cent, while the median income of renter households improved by approximately one per cent. The region’s rental affordability indicator stands at 83* for 2008. The following detailed analysis discusses the key factors that have influenced rental market performance throughout the St. John’s CMA during 2008.

Transition from Renter to Home Owner Slows

Moishe Alexander says with new home construction out-pacing 2007 levels and MLS® sales expected to set yet another record for 2008, local house values have increased considerably. As a result, the move from renting to home ownership among the large first-time buyer segment, as well as other renter households became more challenging in 2008. Between October 2007 and September 2008, MLS® unit sales were 18 per cent higher than the previous year’s rental market survey period. Also, the average MLS® house price increased 19 per cent over the same timeframe. The end result of these market dynamics has been a tighter supply of lower priced existing homes for sale to renters. With increased residential construction activity, higher priced newly built homes provide a second option, but in most cases they exceed the qualified price or financial comfort range for first-time buyers and other renter households. Furthermore, many newly built homes are executive two-stories, catering to the ever-growing move-up segment of the market characterised by local young growing families and in-migrant families. From a demographic perspective, the movement of the “echo” generation out of their parents’ homes or away from their rural NL communities, paired with in-migration to the St. John’s area for employment or education purposes, has also continued to increase the local supply of potential renters. Both of these factors drove the demand for rental accommodations accordingly in 2008, contributing to the lower vacancy rate and increased rents. On a final note, some renter households who are capable of owning their own home may not necessarily be willing or want to take on the extra costs and responsibility associated with home ownership.  Specifically, in terms of having a mortgage to pay, property taxes, insurance, maintenance and maintenance costs, and higher utility costs. The overall reduction in the home ownership rate is viewed as a key contributing factor to the tighter rental market conditions recorded in 2008.

Youth Under Age 25 Play a Key Role

Moishe Alexander says in some cases, renters tend to rent for extended periods of time. In other cases, renters may never make the jump to owning a home. However, for many households, renting is a temporary situation. They may be in a transition phase or attempting to save money or improve their personal incomes until such a time when managing the extra costs and responsibilities associated with owning a home is possible. In other words, these households are not only able, but also willing to purchase a home and take on all that is involved with home ownership. Historically, much of the lost rental demand arising from the movement to home ownership has been offset by the youth demographic (under age 25) absorbing the rental supply. In fact, approximately 80 per cent of younger households, classified as such by having a primary maintainer under age 25, tend to rent. Year after year, this cohort continues to represent a primary source of rental demand within the local rental market. As previously discussed, challenging first-time home buyer conditions in 2008 prevented many renter households from this age group into making the transition to home ownership. In fact, recent surveys by the Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA) indicate that despite its size, the first time buyer segment was given the lowest priority by builders in terms of their target markets. So, it is likely that the current scenario will carry over into 2009, given that price growth is expected to continue. It is important to note that in recent years, St. John’s has not seen the normal level of youth filling vacant rental units left by those who have moved into home ownership. However, this trend appears to have been offset by fewer youth moving to home ownership to the extent that the vacancy rate still declined in 2008 across all bedroom types. This demographic fundamental is viewed as another reason behind the current rental market situation.

Brisk Economic Activity Affects Rental Market

Moishe Alexander says Brisk economic activity within the St. John’s area contributed to an increase in demand in the rental market in 2008, resulting in higher rents and lower vacancies. Offshore oil production and the Hebron project announcement in August 2007 continued to stimulate the local economy and provided support to the housing market. The Hebron formal agreement announcement in August of 2008 injected additional stimulus into the oil sector and this has continued to fuel optimism within the local rental market. Economic activity has been supported, until recently, by higher oil and mineral exports, as well as the addition of new energy development activity from White Rose and the planning phase for the Hebron project. However, a decline in offshore oil production compared to last year is expected to dampen GDP growth for 2008. In fact, during the January to August period of this year, oil production decreased 9.2 per cent over the same period in 2007. That being said, oil price remained historically high throughout the first half of 2008, generating much more revenue for the province than previously projected. Higher commodity prices over the past few years have resulted in increased mineral exploration activity in the interior region of Newfoundland, as well as Labrador. However, the recent correction in commodity prices may suggest more moderate growth over the near term. In addition to the increase in overall economic activity, oil and mineral development activity has added further support to the demand for rental accommodations this year, as many of the people involved in these projects are based in the St. John’s area. These economic fundamentals have contributed to the lower vacancy rate and higher rent level this year. The local labour market ha performed very well in recent years, thanks in large part to the increased economic activity and growth that has been experienced as a result of the oil sector. Last year represented a 26 year high for employment. Local employment peaked at historic highs once again during 2008, while unemployment remained low, both of which contributed to the lower vacancy rate and increased rents.  Tight labour market conditions continue to exert upward pressure on wages and salaries making it easier for renter households to meet rent payment obligations. Overall, personal incomes continue to grow, with additional growth expected this year. Retail sales were up nearly ten per cent last year and similar results are expected for 2008. In fact, during the January to June period of this year, retail sales increased 7.1 per cent over the same period in 2007. Some of this growth has been driven by the Alberta commuter, working in Alberta and coming back during their time off, injecting additional spending into the St John’s area economy. Again, these fundamentals have contributed to the overall tightening of the rental market in 2008.

Across the Board Decrease in Availability Rates

Moishe Alexander says that the results from this year’s Rental Market Survey indicate that availability rates decreased for all bedroom types over the past year. The overall availability rate was 1.5 per cent, down from 3.5 per cen in 2007. Availability rates ranged from a low of 1.1 per cent for three bedroom units, to a high of 2.0 per cent for bachelor units. One and two bedroom units posted availability rates of 1.6 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively. The availability rate includes actual vacant units as well as units for which the existing tenant has given notice, but a new tenant has not yet signed a lease. Availability rates give a slightly broader indication of trends in the supply of vacant rental stock over the short term.  The overall spread between the vacancy rate and the availability rate of 0.7 percentage points indicates that the movement to home ownership will likely continue, albeit at a slower pace. This is particularly the case for three bedroom units, where these tenants often tend to be families and may be in need of larger housing. While all types of renter households are buying homes, those households renting two or three bedroom apartments and typically paying the highest rents, shift to home ownership more frequently if they are able. This year’s decrease in both availability and vacancy rates, combined with fewer renters moving to home ownership, is expected to continue to affect the rental market in 2009.

Rental Market Outlook for 2009

Moishe Alexander says from 2004 to 2006, the St. John’s  CMA vacancy rate increased an average of one percentage point per year. Much of the increase was attributed to robust home buying activity and the corresponding movement of renter households to home ownership. However, 2007 and 2008’s sizeable decline in the vacancy rate is a clear indication that many renter households have decided to remain renters rather than buy a home. Although both the resale and new home markets are expected to remain strong next year, the impact of first-time buyers shifting out of rental will once again be less pronounced.  Accordingly, several factors will have an influence on a low vacancy rate in 2009. As home valuations continue to rise, the transition of renter households to home owner households will continue to slow. However, out-migration of the 18 to 24 year-old youth segment of the population will persist, reducing the potential pool of renters accordingly. Investment in rental housing will increase the supply only slightly next year. As a result, the vacancy rate forecast is 1.5 per cent for 2009. With the vacancy rate remaining very low, expect average two bedroom monthly rents to increase by 11 per cent next year to $700, as landlords attempt to recover the increased costs associated with operating and maintaining the rental stock, while lower vacancies and higher energy costs also exert upward pressure on rents. The commencement of major project construction activity and the possibility of unexpected economic events add risk to the forecast, which may have an effect on the expected vacancy rate and average rents for 2009.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64455/64455_2008_A01.pdf