The seasonally adjusted annual rate¹ of housing starts was 197,300 units in March 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

Seasonally adjusted annual rate estimates of housing start activity were also revised up for January and February². This resulted in month-over-month gains of 7.5 per cent in January (189,000 units), 6 per cent in February (200,400 units), and a slight decrease of 1.5 per cent in March.

“The moderation in March housing starts was due to a decrease in the volatile multiple starts segment. Helping to offset this was an increase in singles starts as well as more activity in rural areas,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 4.2 per cent to 175,200 units in March. Urban multiple starts decreased by 15.2 per cent to 77,500 units while single urban starts increased by 6.9 per cent to 97,700 units.

March’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 13.5 per cent in Quebec and by 7.3 per cent in the Prairie region, but decreased by 16.3 per cent in British Columbia, by 15.5 per cent in Ontario, and by 8 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 22,100 units in March³.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts reached 157,300 units in October. This is an increase from 149,300 units started in September, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“The improvement in housing starts in October is attributable to improvement in the multiple starts segment,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Despite a small decline in single home starts in October, the level of single home starts remains at its second highest level since October 2008.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 5.2 per cent to 139,900 units in October. Urban multiple starts climbed 13.8 per cent to 72,600 units, while urban single starts declined by 2.7 per cent to 67,300 units in October.

October’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 15 per cent in British Columbia, by 14.8 per cent in Ontario, by 6.5 per cent in the Prairies and by 1.2 per cent in the Atlantic. The rate of urban starts decreased by 11.6 per cent in Quebec.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,400 units in October.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

After near record years in new home construction, 2009 residential new home construction will grow below demographic needs in Ottawa Census Metropolitan Area. Total housing starts will close this year at 5,125 units or 27 per cent lower than in 2008 and well below the ten year average for the region. Tight credit conditions for high density development will delay construction in the Capital, particularly for condo apartments. However, increasing strength is expected next year as construction responds to growing demand for housing. In 2010 foundations will rise, growing slightly above population needs with 5,900 new units. Spill-over demand coming from the existing home market combined with low levels of construction this year and declining new home inventories will set the foundations for a strong rebound in New Home construction in the coming year.

Although total starts are expected to soften in 2009, single-detached homes will be declining the least. Single- detached starts will remain at close to 40 per cent of total construction or 2,250 units. The lowest interest rate seen in almost 60 years coupled with more affordable dwellings in Ottawa’s outskirts will result in decreasing monthly mortgage payments.
Single-detached new construction will pick up slightly through 2010. The Monetary and Fiscal stimulus coming from Canada’s Economic Action Plan will further boost the purchase of big ticketed items in the Capital City. Ottawa’s home market continues to be strong, as single-detached starts remain a good barometer of the strength of the new residential construction market.

The average price for new single- detached homes in 2009 will post a similar level of growth to last year and will stand at around $418,400 for a 2.3 per cent increase. Although the underlying increase in price in 2010 will be flat, a greater proportion of more expensive homes will drive the average price higher by 5.7 per cent.

Semi-detached and townhomes will provide an alternative to the single- detached home dwellings when their price increases in 2010. As a result, expect semi-detached and townhomes sales to increase by 10 and 11 per cent next year respectively.

The St. John’s area housing market has been driven by a timely blend of resilient consumer spending, large capital projects and improved employment, which have resulted in reducing out-migration and continued population growth. Despite the recent global economic uncertainty, strong fundamentals have, and will continue to support demand for housing throughout the remainder of 2009 and in 2010. Accordingly, growth in the local housing market is expected to continue. The buoyant local renovation sector will be stimulated by the home renovation tax credit. Also, historically low mortgage rates have reduced the cost of borrowing, but some buyers remain sensitive to the considerable price growth that has occurred in this market. Personal income growth has been aided by wage gains and tax cuts and this income growth has offset higher house prices somewhat and will continue to provide support to housing starts in 2010. Overall, the positive outlook for the St. John’s area housing market will be reinforced by favourable trends in demographic and economic fundamentals, as well as consumer spending and on-going economic momentum supported by a lengthy list of major capital projects.

Despite the global economic situation over the past year, several planned and realized major capital projects continue to inject stimulus into the local economy and contributed to increased resiliency on the part of consumers. Consumers, a key component of economic growth in 2008 through related spending on retail, auto and housing activity, have been more cautious in 2009, but still remain positive overall, as spending activity continues to show growth. However, natural declines in offshore oil production will dampen GDP growth this year and next. During 2008, oil production declined nearly seven per cent over 2007 levels. This year, oil production is expected to decrease 21 per cent, with declines at all three producing oil fields. Weaker offshore oil production will dampen growth over the 2009 to 2010 period, although increased royalties received by the province will contribute to economic growth. Weak commodity prices have resulted in decreased and/ or suspended mineral exploration and mining extraction activity in the interior region of Newfoundland, as well as Labrador this year. However, global resource prices have begun to rise again, which will add to economic growth in 2010. Coming off the heels of real GDP growth of 7.9 per cent in 2007 for NL and additional growth of 1.8 per cent in 2008, expect a 3.8 per cent decline in 2009 real GDP, led by lower oil, mineral and newsprint exports. A two per cent rebound in economic growth is expected in 2010.

With record sales posted during the past several years, the St. John’s area resale market is expected to cool slightly in terms of total unit sales. Accordingly, the forecast calls for MLS® sales of 3,450 units this year, down ten per cent from 3,835 in 2008, with 3,575 sales expected in 2010. With many newly built homes now selling through the MLS® system, healthy residential construction activity will continue to have a positive impact on total MLS® sales. Unprecedented housing market activity in 2008 favoured sellers, with a market characterized by above average unit sales, very low available inventory and 20 per cent average price growth. However, throughout this year, the market has favoured buyers. A marginal downward trend in sales has resulted in more inventory, whilprices have continued to advance. In fact, active listings or inventory have trended 33 per cent higher in 2009 compared to last year. With demand expected to cool only slightly over the forecast period, unit sales will remain historically strong, but will noexceed recent record levels. While increasingly favourable for buyers, weaker resale market conditions have proved challenging for some sellers, resulting in fewer offers on higher priced listings, with offers often significantly below list price. With increased inventory available tchoose from, many buyers have farewell in their search for an existing home this year and in some cases, people are being swayed away from the higher-priced new home market. The growing new versus existing house price premium has resulted in increased first-time buyer activity within the lower-priced resale market and this trend will likely continue, with prices expected to head higher.

Employment in the Charlottetown area is forecast to post a slight decline this year before posting a moderate increase in 2010. During the first three quarters of 2009, the decrease in employment in Charlottetown was dispersed among all industries except the public service sector, which posted a small increase. Despite the modest declines in employment in 2009, the capital region remains attractive for job seekers compared to other parts of the province. This fact has lead to the continued trend of urbanization, as Islanders continue to move to the capital region from more rural parts of the province.

Positive net-migration is one of the key factors that has contributed to the strong housing market over the past seven years. As of July 2009, the population of Prince Edward Island was estimated at 140,985; an increase of 1,534 persons or 1.1 per cent from 2008. While this increase in population was the result of both a natural increase and positive net migration, the vast majority was the result of the latter. From July 2008 to July 2009, 1,793 international immigrants chose the Island as their new home, which is the highest annual level since recording began in 1971. The main reason for this substantial increase in international migration was the increased effort that the province has allocated to this initiative. The results seen in 2007 and 2008 are expected to be the start of a new upward trend in international migration with preliminary data for 2009 indicating that the year could end up showing an even larger inflow of people. The local housing market is benefitting from this initiative as many of these households are relocating to the capital region, and as such require housing within all tenure types. While the aforementioned data

While the aforementioned data on immigration is positive, it is for the province as a whole. It is important to note that the capital region consistently outperforms the province. For the last census period ending in 2006, the Charlottetown CA, which encompasses the entire urban area around the city, recorded a population growth of 1,391 people or 2.4 per cent. While there was some natural population growth during this period, the majority of the increase was due to in-migration. For the Charlottetown area it had been typical that about 70 per cent of the people moving to the capital region came from elsewhere in the province, while the remainder were from other regions of the country. This ratio had remained fairly constant since the early 1990′s, but since 2006 it has started to change. The reason for this is twofold, with both the movement of people to the west and the recent influx in international immigrants. As earlier referenced, the influx of international immigration is expected to end up being even stronger in 2009 than 2008, due to the popularity of the province’s programs with new immigrants. This will especially benefit the capital region as the majority of the people are settling in the area. This trend should continue to bolster the local housing market over the forecast period, as the population continues to grow.

As a result of the aforementioned market forces, the Charlottetown housing market is expected to exceed the level set in 2008. Although single starts in Charlottetown recorded a decline so far in 2009, multiple starts at the end of the third quarter are on track to have the strongest year since 1988. Single starts are expected to decline 25 per cent in 2009, when compared to 2008. This decline was expected, as many potential homeowners are taking a wait and see approach, before making any large purchases. In addition, single home construction in Charlottetown posted seven years of impressive growth that mirrored the national trend. As such, the decline in 2009 is seen as the market returning to a more sustainable level. In contrast to the decline in singles, multiple starts will end the year close to setting a new record high. The strength in multiple starts is the result of several factors. The increase in multiple unit starts also created a situation where there was a temporary oversupply of rental units that was not fully absorbed until the end of 2007. However, one area where new construction has continued to remain strong is multiple units intended for homeownership. A key reason for the increased activity in this part of the market is the relatively lower cost of semi-detached and row units compared to single-detached homes. Despite the forecasted increase in semi-detached units over the next two years, it is expected that the overall housing market will remain strong during the forecast period. The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range.

presented by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

For the second month in a row, the Canadian housing market has recorded an increasing number of sales in most areas around the country.

“Conditions in the resale housing market have improved markedly this Spring,” according to TREB President Maureen O’Neill. “Home purchases have increased as households have taken advantage of low interest rates and slightly lower home prices.”

While April sales remained lower than last year, the housing market gained momentum on a month-over-month basis.

Paul Penner, President of the Fraser Valley real estate board, says current conditions have created one of the best buying opportunities in years. “REALTORS® have successfully communicated to their sellers to be more realistic with their prices, which is why we’ve seen a 29% increase in sales from March to April.”

Penner also attributes the increase to all-time historically low interest rates and still relatively high inventory for Fraser Valley, although it is dropping rapidly.

Below is a brief summary of sales activities in some areas across the country:

British Columbia
Surrey, May 4, 2009: The Fraser Valley real estate market continued to show signs of rebalancing in April with the number of sales increasing for the third month in a row while the volume of available properties stayed constant. Benchmark prices for detached homes and condominiums also showed increases over the last three months.

In April, there were 1,293 sales processed on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), reflecting a 28% decrease compared to the 1,787 sales in April of last year, however, a 29% increase over March sales. At the same time, the Board received 44% fewer new listings compared to one year ago, 2,477 in contrast to 4,458 in April 2008, helping to stabilize the number of active listings in the Fraser Valley at 9,855.

The Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price of Fraser Valley townhouses decreased 11.6% from $333,982 in April 2008 to $295,078 in April 2009. That decrease, however, slowed to 0.1% during the last three months. The benchmark price of apartments also decreased year-over-year by 11.4% going from $260,037 in April of last year to $230,337 in April 2009. Similar to detached homes, the benchmark price for apartments has increased by 4.4% over the last three months.

Ontario

Toronto, May 6, 2009: Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 8,107 sales in April, down 7% from April 2008. While April sales remained lower than last year, the housing market gained momentum on a month-over-month basis. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in April, at 80,900, was up 26% from March and up two-thirds compared to January’s ten-year low.

The average price for April transactions was $385,641, down 3% from last year.

Ottawa, May 5, 2009: Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,594 residential properties in April through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® system compared with 1,560 in April 2008, an increase of 2.2%. There were 1,162 sales in March 2009.

The average price of residential properties, including condominiums, sold in April in the Ottawa area was $298,150, an increase of 1% over April 2008. The average price for a condominium-class property was $216,502, an increase of 2.8% over April 2008. The average price of a residential-class property was $318,900, an increase of 0.7% over April 2008.

Alberta

Calgary, May 1, 2009: Sales activity of single family Calgary metro homes was 1,290 in the month of April 2009, showing an increase of 19% from 1,086 sales in March 2009. This was a decrease of 5% from April 2008, when single family home sales were 1,363. The number of condominium sales for the month of April 2009 was 579, an increase of 30% from the 446 condominium transactions recorded in March 2009, and a decrease of 0.3% from April 2008, when 581 condominiums changed hands.

The average price of a single family Calgary metro home in April 2009 was $426,311, showing an increase of 1% from March 2009, when the average price was $420,354, and showing a decrease of 10% from April 2008, when the average price was $474,564. The average price of a Calgary metro condominium was $277,953, showing a 2% decrease from March 2009, when the average price was $284,056, and a decrease of 11% over last year, when the average price was $312,586. Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas.

Saskatchewan

Saskatoon, May 1, 2009: April’s real estate market continued to correct with fewer listings being taken easing higher than normal inventory levels. Saskatoon REALTORS® assisted 353 buyers to find their dream home, a decrease of15% from April 2008 when 413 units were sold.

REALTORS® placed 694 properties on the market in April, a decrease of 23% from 2008 when 896 homes were listed for sale. Buyers had 1499 properties to select from, down substantially from a market high of 1,748 homes for sale in September 2008.

The average selling price for April was $275,455, down from April 2008 when the average price was $306,031.

Nova Scotia

Nova Scotia, April 17, 2009: Though Nova Scotia’s March real estate sales activity was down 15% from last March, it was still the highest level of housing sales activity in the province in five months, as reported by the Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS®. In January 2009, the year-over-year decline was 32%.

The value of all residential transactions recorded through the MLS® system in Nova Scotia totalled $130.5 million in March 2009, a 16% decrease from year-ago levels. The total value of all MLS® sales activity in Nova Scotia was $137.4 million, a year-over-year decline of 17% from March 2008.

The average price for MLS® home sales in Nova Scotia was down slightly in March 2009 compared to levels one year earlier. Edging down 1% from March 2008, the provincial average price for home sales was $188,651.

The MLS® average price rose by 1.6% in Halifax-Dartmouth, to $229,548. The small decrease in provincial average price was the result of fewer sales in this region, where homes are priced higher than in other markets across the province. Sales activity was down by 19% year-over-year in Halifax-Dartmouth, compared to the 15% provincial decline. This resulted in fewer transactions at the higher end of the price spectrum being included in the calculation of the provincial average price.

http://www.whistler-realestate.com/Blog/Canadian-Real-Estate-Market-Watch-for-May

]]> http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/06/canadian-real-estate-market-watch-for-may/feed/ 0 http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/02/moishe-alexander%e2%80%99s-review-of-the-winnipeg-manitoba-housing-market-and-cmhc-outlook-report/ http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/02/moishe-alexander%e2%80%99s-review-of-the-winnipeg-manitoba-housing-market-and-cmhc-outlook-report/#comments Thu, 19 Feb 2009 04:11:14 +0000 admin http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=79 January 15, 2009 – Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting the Winnipeg Manitoba housing market

Winnipeg - Credit jimj_wpg, Flickr

Winnipeg Manitoba has had a serious decrease in housing starts and is returning to the historical low levels of housing starts of years gone by and the housing starts are down 15%. CMHC is forecasting 2,875 units single-detached starts, 25 semi-detached units, 15 apartment condominium ownership units, and 20 apartment rental units, for a total of 2,935 housing starts for 2008. This will decrease by 700 units in 2009.

SINGLE-DETACHED FORMS OF HOUSING POISED FOR ANOTHER STRONG YEAR

This year Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that Winnipeg will surpass the housing start levels of 2006, and 2007 but pouring more than 1,925 foundations. However, in 2009 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be only 1,850 single-detached homes started. A modest 4% decrease from 2008.

WINNIPEG’S RESALE MARKET WILL BE MODERATE

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation states in its outlook report that after 6 years of consecutive double-digit price growth, the resale market in Winnipeg will balance itself off in 2009. In 2007, the average MLS price for a detached home is currently $200,000.00 in 2008 and we will see a 4% increase in 2009, to push the resale average price to $208,000.00.

WINNIPEG MOVING TO BALANCED MODERATE MARKET

As Winnipeg has experienced substantial price growth over the past 3 years, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be continued but moderate growth in 2009. However, in major commercial projects there will be over $7 billion worth of projects that are commencing in 2009 for Winnipeg and the surrounding areas, concentrated in Winnipeg.

MORTGAGE RATES

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predict that interest rates will decline by a further 25-50 basis points from their current levels in 2009. However, due to the cost of borrowing to the Canadian banks from the markets, the mortgage interest rate will marginally increase in the latter half of 2009, but not significantly enough to negatively affect the housing market in Winnipeg and surrounding areas.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64363/64363_2008_B02.pdf

London, Ontario - Credit b0ratDI, Flickr

London Ontario has had a small decrease in housing starts and is returning to the historical low levels of housing starts of years gone by and the housing starts are down 29%. CMHC is forecasting 732 units single-detached starts, 15 semi-detached units, 10 apartment condominium ownership units, and 10 apartment rental units, for a total of 767 housing starts for 2008. This will decrease by 400 units in 2009.

SINGLE-DETACHED FORMS OF HOUSING POISED FOR ANOTHER STRONG YEAR

This year Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that London Ontario will surpass the housing start levels of 2006, and 2007 by pouring more than 700 foundations. However, in 2009 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be only 400 single-detached homes started, a decrease of 29% from 2008.

LONDON’S RESALE MARKET WILL BE MODERATE

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation states in its outlook report that after 6 years of consecutive double-digit price growth, the resale market in London will balance itself off in 2009. In 2007, the average MLS price for a detached home is currently $205,000.00 in 2008 and we will see a 2.5% increase in 2009, to push the resale average price to $211,000.00.

LONDON MARKET TIPS INTO BALANCED CONDITION

As London Ontario has experienced substantial price growth over the past 3 years, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predicts that there will be continued but moderate growth in 2009. However, in major commercial projects there will be over $15 million worth of projects that are commencing in 2009 for London and the surrounding areas, concentrated in London Ontario.

MORTGAGE RATES

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predict that interest rates will decline by a further 25-50 basis points from their current levels in 2009. However, due to the cost of borrowing to the Canadian banks from the markets, the mortgage interest rate will marginally increase in the latter half of 2009, but not significantly enough to negatively affect the housing market in London and surrounding areas.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64327/64327_2008_B02.pdf