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St. Catharines-Niagara CMA

Comments: 0January 4th, 2010 by admin

Posted by Moshe Alexander

The vacancy rate for private rental apartment buildings with three or more units in the St. Catharines- Niagara CMA (hereinafter Niagara) was above the national and historical averages. According to the CMHC’s Fall 2009 Rental Market Survey, the vacancy rate edged up to 4.4 per cent in 2009. This was above the 20-year average level of 3.5 per cent, and an increase of 0.1 percentage point from last year. Four main factors placed upward pressure on the vacancy rate. First, record low mortgage rates in combination with lower prices in the earlier part of the year translated into very affordable mortgage carrying costs. Many buyers, in particular first- time buyers, took advantage and moved out of rental accommodation and into home ownership. A comparison of average rents and mortgage carrying costs based on the mortgage terms chosen by most first-time buyers (i.e., maximum amortization period and the minimum down payment allowed) suggests that the gap between the two narrowed by more than 50 per cent in the first quarter of 2009.

Also, youth aged 15 to 24 are a key source of rental demand. Weaker employment among youth in this age group meant that some of them, after losing their jobs, moved back into their parents’ homes, or alternatively, postponed a decision to move out. Total employment for all age groups declined by around 11,000 people or 5.6 per cent when comparing the average level in the 12 months ending September 2009 to average level in the same period a year earlier.Youth employment declined by 4,500 people or 14 per cent, of which 2,900 in full- time positions and the rest in part- time jobs.

Finally, there were fewer international immigrants in 2009, due to the global economic slowdown. Since they traditionally tend to rent after landing in Canada, this implies that rental demand in 2009 was not as strong as in the previous years. Many international migrants find it difficult to settle in the region and land a job. Instead, they prefer to settle in major centres, such as the Greater Toronto Area, where they are more likely to find their first job and where there are established social networks.

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Posted in CMHC, Canada, Rental Market, affordable housing

Ottawa CMA

Comments: 0January 4th, 2010 by admin

Posted by Moshe Alexander

According to the latest Rental Market Survey data collected in October by CMHC, the average vacancy rate in privately initiated rental apartments in the Ottawa Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) increased only slightly from last year to 1.5 per cent. Consequently, Ottawa remained one of the tightest rental markets in Ontario.

The low vacancy rate was the result of two contrary influences. On the one hand low borrowing costs coupled with steady employment conditions in the Capital City gave many renters the right incentives to jump into the homeownership market pushing the vacancy upwards. On the other hand minimal rental apartment construction and fewer secondary rental market units kept vacancies low. While both influences roughly balanced each other out, the outflow of households from rental accommodations into homeownership was relatively stronger.

Availability rate is a slightly broader indicator than the vacancy rate, as it captures both the currently vacant rental stock and the stock for which the tenant has given or received notice to vacate. While the vacancy rate remained largely stable at a low of 1.5 per cent, the availability rate jumped from 2.9 per cent in 2008 to 3.5 per cent in 2009.

This suggests that it is possible that some buyers, who are currently renting, have not taken occupancy of their new homes yet, but have already given their landlords their two months notice. The slight jump in availability could also indicate that in Ottawa’s tight rental market, leased units are occupied quite rapidly after they become vacant, maintaining a stable vacancy rate.

Employment performance among first time buyers’ ages 25 to 44 years old has been very resilient, remaining on par with levels this time last year. Labour market recovery for this age cohort has been remarkable and has enabled some potential first time buyers to take full advantage of declining borrowing costs. An economic environment of low interest rates unleashed the pent-up demand accumulated early in 2009. As a result, the movement out of rental and into homeownership in this age group has been significant, pushing vacancy rates upwards.

Another factor supporting the increase in vacancy rate is the weak employment performance among young renters. The age cohort between ages 18 to 24 has been the weakest when compared to other age groups. Total year-to-date full time employment is down 8.7 per cent from last year. Rising unemployment within this age group has obliged some young adults to remain in their parental home, dampening the rate of household formation.

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Posted in CMHC, Canada, affordable housing

Barrie CMA

Comments: 0January 4th, 2010 by admin

Posted by Moshe Alexander

The Barrie CMA rental market experienced softer conditions in 2009. The average vacancy rate for purpose- built rental apartments rose up by 0.3 percentage points this year to 3.8 percent. Several factors contributed to easing demand, including a rebound in homeownership demand and high youth unemployment. Continued moderate migration into Barrie supported demand.

Supply, also, was virtually unchanged, increasing by only 15 units. There were no new purpose-built apartments, but the number of units in the existing universe increased for a variety of reasons.

With a softer rental market the growth in average monthly rent for a two-bedroom unit slowed significantly from last year and came in at 1.2 per cent, well the below the maximum rent increase stipulated by the province.

The economic adjustment has affected employment prospects in Barrie for all age cohorts, but in particular the youngest age cohort of 15-24. This group makes up a significant proportion of Barrie’s labour force, given the region’s overall young population and is also a key source of rental demand. The proportion of the labour force in Barrie made up by the 15-24 year-old age group this year has averaged close to 20 per cent. Both full-time employment and part-time employment for this age group have been trending down. With a slowly recovering economy, young people who had been renting returned to the parental home or doubled up with other youth, while those currently living with parents are staying at home until the economy recovers further.

The rate of migration into Barrie has slowed. Nevertheless migration into Barrie from within Ontario is higher than it is in most other Ontario centres. Moveover, slightly fewer people are moving away from Barrie to other parts of the country. Immigration and births added to the slower, but still significant, population growth rate. A growing and relatively young population continues to support rental demand.

With mortgage carrying costs down due to record-low mortgage rates, first-time buyers have exited rental into homeownership thereby increasing the overall vacancy rate.

The decline in mortgage rates in 2009 put mortgage carrying costs back to where they were in 2006. These payments hit a low in the second quarter, which coincided with an improvement in the employment prospects for the 25-44 year old age group. This is the same age group from which many first-time buyers are drawn, so the surge in existing home sales beginning in the second quarter likely included many purchases by people who were renting at the time.

Renters who move into homeownership usually have relatively high incomes compared to other renters and often occupy the larger, more expensive rental accommodation before their move. Given the significance of the secondary rental market in Barrie, in particular, the number of rented single-detached homes, a number of first-time buyers would be coming from the secondary rental market. As a result, the movement to home ownership in Barrie resulted in a relatively small increase in the primary rental market vacancy rate since some the impact was absorbed in the secondary rental market.

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Posted in CMHC, Canada

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