The residential housing market will remain strong in historical terms this year and next. A moderate rebound is expected to push total provincial housing starts higher in 2010, to 3,525 units, following a decline to 3,400 in 2009.
Economic growth in New Brunswick was limited in 2009 as exporters in the province continued to face a decline in global demand for commodities. Fewer exports have also had a negative impact on the manufacturing and transportation sectors in the province. No significant increase in economic growth is expected until a global recovery begins to take hold in 2010.
Despite economic uncertainty, the long term outlook for New Brunswick contains positive elements which will serve to support housing demand. For example, the last provincial budget for 2009-2010 focused on job creation, with $1.2 billion set aside for infrastructure programs and support to New Brunswick businesses. Notwithstanding, the return of sustained economic expansion will rely heavily on capital investment.
Employment in New Brunswick’s three large urban centres has been stable in 2009. As a result, positive net-migration continued in both Moncton and Fredericton, as each centre benefited from solid service, retail and construction sectors. Conversely, in-migration in Saint John, which has been muted in recent years, is not likely to change during the remainder of this year and in 2010. Reduced housing demand in all three centres has led to a lower level of activity in both the new home and resale markets. Employment levels are expected to remain flat in 2010; however, this should not significantly affect the housing market.
The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.
Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range.