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	<title>Moishe Alexander and Canadian Funding Corporation Review CMHC Reports&#187; New Home Starts</title>
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	<description>Reviews of CMHC Housing Reports by Moishe Alexander</description>
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		<title>Governments of Canada and Ontario Celebrate New Affordable Housing in Wellington County</title>
		<link>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2010/08/governments-of-canada-and-ontario-celebrate-new-affordable-housing-in-wellington-county/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Aug 2010 23:42:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[CMHC]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Housing Starts]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=579</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander: The Government of Canada, the Government of Ontario, and the County of Wellington celebrated the grand opening of 55 affordable rental units. The project is supported by more than $3.8 million in funding through the Canada – Ontario Affordable Housing Program. The Honourable Michael Chong, Member of Parliament for Wellington – Halton Hills, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander:</p>
<p>The Government of Canada, the Government of Ontario, and the County of Wellington celebrated the grand opening of 55 affordable rental units. The project is supported by more than $3.8 million in funding through the Canada – Ontario Affordable Housing Program.</p>
<p>The Honourable Michael Chong, Member of Parliament for Wellington – Halton Hills, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), and John Wilkinson, Member of Provincial Parliament for Perth – Wellington, on behalf of Jim Bradley, Ontario’s Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing, along with Joanne Ross-Zuj, County of Wellington Warden made the announcement.</p>
<p>“Our Government is dedicated to giving a hand-up to those in need, which is why we are proud to have invested in this project in Fergus,” said MP Michael Chong. “These 55 units are more than just safe and affordable places to live. They are the key to a better life for the families and individual that will call them home.”</p>
<p>“The province of Ontario is committed to helping people who live on lower or fixed incomes stay in their home communities,” said MPP John Wilkinson. “These 55 new affordable accessible rental units are going to make a positive difference in the lives of these individuals and families. The construction is part of our Open Ontario plan to create jobs and economic opportunities in the County of Wellington.”</p>
<p>“The County of Wellington is dedicated to helping all of our residents find a comfortable and safe place to call home,” said Warden Joanne Ross-Zuj. “Ownership of Fergusson Place by the County ensures that long-term quality, affordable housing will be available to residents needing assistance. Through construction projects like these, the County continues to create jobs and stimulate our local economy.”</p>
<p>Fergusson Place, a 55-unit project located at 165 Gordon Street in Fergus, Wellington County, received more than $3.8 million through the Canada – Ontario Affordable Housing Program. The building is occupied by persons with special needs, singles and families. The federal and provincial funding is complemented by $5.7 million in municipal capital funding.</p>
<p>The Canada – Ontario Affordable Housing Program Agreement comprises a commitment of $301 million from each of the two senior levels of government. In total, the federal, provincial and municipal governments will invest at least $734 million in the program, which will provide affordable housing for up to 20,000 households in Ontario.</p>
<p>In 2008, the Government of Canada committed more than $1.9 billion over five years to improve and build new affordable housing and to help the homeless. Canada&#8217;s Economic Action Plan builds on this with an additional one-time investment of more than $2 billion over two years for new and existing social housing, plus up to $2 billion in loans to municipalities for housing-related infrastructure. Combined for Ontario, this means a further $1.2 billion joint investment under the amended Canada – Ontario Affordable Housing Program Agreement. The federal and provincial governments are contributing equally to this overall investment.</p>
<p>In 2009, Ontario allocated a combined federal and provincial investment of $704 million for the renovation of social housing, and $540 million for the construction of new affordable housing. This investment is part of the Open Ontario plan, and will generate an estimated 23,000 jobs over the course of the program, while strengthening local economies across the province. To date, Ontario has approved more than $465 million for construction-ready projects, which will provide affordable housing for low-income families, senior citizens, and persons with disabilities, and $351.9 million for repairs benefiting some 148,000 social housing units.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/nero/nere/2010/2010-06-21-1200.cfm</title>
		<link>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2010/08/httpwww-cmhc-schl-gc-caencorpneronere20102010-06-21-1200-cfm/</link>
		<comments>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2010/08/httpwww-cmhc-schl-gc-caencorpneronere20102010-06-21-1200-cfm/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Aug 2010 23:37:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[British Columbia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CMHC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Housing Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Housing Starts]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Social Housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sudbury]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=576</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander: The Government of Canada announced today that a housing co-operative located in British Columbia will receive more than $54,000, through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, as part of the social housing renovation and retrofit investments. “Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, our government is taking action to help ensure our economic recovery and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander:</p>
<p>The Government of Canada announced today that a housing co-operative located in British Columbia will receive more than $54,000, through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, as part of the social housing renovation and retrofit investments.</p>
<p>“Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, our government is taking action to help ensure our economic recovery and create the conditions for long-term growth,&#8221; said the Honourable Stockwell Day, President of the Treasury Board and Minister for the Asia-Pacific Gateway, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). “Funding renovation and retrofit projects, like this one, will not only improve the quality of life of its residents by keeping their homes safe and affordable, but it will also help stimulate the local economy and create local jobs.”</p>
<p>The Government of Canada, through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, announced $1 billion for social housing renovation and retrofit.  Of the $1 billion, $850 million is being delivered by provinces and territories on a cost-matched basis for existing federally assisted social housing projects which they administer on behalf of the partnership. The remaining $150 million is being delivered by CMHC for existing federally assisted off-reserve housing which it directly administers. Eligible repairs include general improvements, energy efficiency upgrades or conversions, and modifications in support of persons with disabilities.</p>
<p>The Phoenix Court Co-operativewill be using the contribution from the Government of Canada to complete disability modifications, and to replace baseboard heaters and appliances.</p>
<p>“We congratulate and thank the federal government and Minister Finley for making a sound investment to help ensure that this affordable community is preserved as a legacy for the long-term benefit of its residents, “said Ken Elliott, President of the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada. “Today’s announcement is an excellent example of stimulus funding that works towards preserving jobs, assisting the local economy, and protecting valuable affordable housing assets for Canadians.”</p>
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		<title>Canada’s Economic Action Plan Creates Jobs and Improves Social Housing in Quebec — Louis-Saint-Laurent</title>
		<link>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2010/08/canada%e2%80%99s-economic-action-plan-creates-jobs-and-improves-social-housing-in-quebec-%e2%80%94-louis-saint-laurent/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Aug 2010 23:33:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Alberta]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[renovation projects]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander: The Government of Canada announced today that four housing co-operatives located in Louis-Saint-Laurent will receive more that $386,000 through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, as part of the social housing renovation and retrofit investments. The announcement was made today by the Honourable Josée Verner, Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, President of the Queen&#8217;s [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander:</p>
<p>The Government of Canada announced today that four housing co-operatives located in Louis-Saint-Laurent will receive more that $386,000 through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, as part of the social housing renovation and retrofit investments.</p>
<p>The announcement was made today by the Honourable Josée Verner, Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, President of the Queen&#8217;s Privy Council, Minister for la Francophonie, and Minister Responsible for the Québec Region, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This contribution is part of the more than $22 million federal investment, announced earlier today by Minister Finley, for the renovation and retrofit of housing projects across Québec.</p>
<p>“The four renovation projects announced today in my riding are concrete examples of measures that our government has put in place to help ensure our economic recovery and long-term growth. It is through initiatives like these ones that our economic action plan is improving the quality of life of our citizens, creating jobs and stimulating the economy, right here in the Québec region,” said Minister Verner.</p>
<p>The Government of Canada, through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, announced $1 billion for social housing renovation and retrofit. Of the $1 billion, $850 million is being delivered by provinces and territories on a cost-matched basis for existing federally assisted social housing projects which they administer on behalf of the partnership. The remaining $150 million is being delivered by CMHC for existing federally assisted off-reserve housing which it directly administers. Eligible repairs include general improvements, energy efficiency upgrades or conversions, and modifications in support of persons with disabilities.</p>
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		<title>Canada’s Economic Action Plan Creates Jobs and Improves Social Housing in Quebec — Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean</title>
		<link>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2010/08/canada%e2%80%99s-economic-action-plan-creates-jobs-and-improves-social-housing-in-quebec-%e2%80%94-roberval-%e2%80%93-lac-saint-jean/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Aug 2010 23:25:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[CMHC]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=570</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander: The Government of Canada announced today that four housing co-operatives located in Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean will receive more that $362,000 through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, as part of the social housing renovation and retrofit investments. The announcement was made today by the Honourable Denis Lebel, Minister of State (Economic Development Agency [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander:</p>
<p>The Government of Canada announced today that four housing co-operatives located in Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean will receive more that $362,000 through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, as part of the social housing renovation and retrofit investments.</p>
<p>The announcement was made today by the Honourable Denis Lebel, Minister of State (Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec), on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This contribution is part of the more than $22 million federal investment, announced earlier today by Minister Finley, for the renovation and retrofit of housing projects across Québec.</p>
<p>“Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, our government is taking action to help ensure our economic recovery and create the conditions for long-term growth,&#8221; said Minister Lebel. “Funding renovation and retrofit projects, like this one, will not only improve the quality of life of its residents by keeping their homes safe and affordable, but it will also help stimulate the local economy and create local jobs.”</p>
<p>The Government of Canada, through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, announced $1 billion for social housing renovation and retrofit. Of the $1 billion, $850 million is being delivered by provinces and territories on a cost-matched basis for existing federally assisted social housing projects which they administer on behalf of the partnership. The remaining $150 million is being delivered by CMHC for existing federally assisted off-reserve housing which it directly administers. Eligible repairs include general improvements, energy efficiency upgrades or conversions, and modifications in support of persons with disabilities.</p>
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		<title>Canada’s Economic Action Plan Creates Jobs and Improves Social Housing in Quebec — Montmagny – L’Islet-Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup</title>
		<link>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2010/07/canada%e2%80%99s-economic-action-plan-creates-jobs-and-improves-social-housing-in-quebec-%e2%80%94-montmagny-%e2%80%93-l%e2%80%99islet-kamouraska-%e2%80%93-riviere-du-loup/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jul 2010 19:33:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[CMHC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canada]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Housing Starts]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Quebec]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=567</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander The Government of Canada announced today that five housing co-operatives and non-profit organizations located in Montmagny – L’Islet-Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup will receive more that $160,000, through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, as part of the social housing renovation and retrofit investments. The announcement was made today by Bernard Généreux, Member of Parliament [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander</p>
<p>The Government of Canada announced today that five housing co-operatives and non-profit organizations located in Montmagny – L’Islet-Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup will receive more that $160,000, through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, as part of the social housing renovation and retrofit investments.</p>
<p>The announcement was made today by Bernard Généreux, Member of Parliament for Montmagny – L’Islet-Kamouraska – Rivière-du-Loup, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This contribution is part of the more than $22 million federal investment, announced earlier today by Minister Finley, for the renovation and retrofit of housing projects across Québec.</p>
<p>“Through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, our government is taking action to help ensure our economic recovery and create the conditions for long-term growth,&#8221; said MP Généreux. “Funding renovation and retrofit projects, like this one, will not only improve the quality of life of its residents by keeping their homes safe and affordable, but it will also help stimulate the local economy and create local jobs.”</p>
<p>The Government of Canada, through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, announced $1 billion for social housing renovation and retrofit. Of the $1 billion, $850 million is being delivered by provinces and territories on a cost-matched basis for existing federally assisted social housing projects which they administer on behalf of the partnership. The remaining $150 million is being delivered by CMHC for existing federally assisted off-reserve housing which it directly administers. Eligible repairs include general improvements, energy efficiency upgrades or conversions, and modifications in support of persons with disabilities.</p>
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		<title>HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK Greater Sudbury</title>
		<link>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/11/housing-market-outlook-greater-sudbury/</link>
		<comments>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/11/housing-market-outlook-greater-sudbury/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 17:16:22 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=403</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander The slackness in the resale market coupled with the slowing economy will directly impact the new home market. Single-detached starts will fall to 190 units in 2009 and 180 in 2010, as the market comes more into line with long-term demographic requirements. CMHC expects 210 row, condominium and apartment starts in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander</p>
<p>The slackness in the resale market coupled with the slowing economy will directly impact the new home market. Single-detached starts will fall to 190 units in 2009 and 180 in 2010, as the market comes more into line with long-term demographic requirements. CMHC expects 210 row, condominium and apartment starts in 2009 and another 160 in 2010.</p>
<p>After rising 4.3 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively in 2007 and 2008, the New Home Price Index for Sudbury-Thunder Bay will rise in 2009 and 2010 but only modestly given the slowdown in demand.</p>
<p>Developers have plans for condominium development in 2010. Pricing will be very important as this product is primarily targeted at empty nesters who do not typically want to pay more for a condo that what they obtain from the sale of a homeownership unit.</p>
<p>As is well known, the vacancy rate has fallen from a peak of 11.1 per cent in 1999. A tight market partially brought on by a lack of new rental construction and demand pressure has finally resulted in some development of rental housing in Greater Sudbury. Vacancy rates rose slightly in April and will also increase this October before falling again to 1.3 per cent in 2010 as the economy begins improving. Strong enrolment figures at the three Sudbury-based post-secondary institutions will contribute to the tight market conditions. Rents should continue to escalate in 2009 and 2010 given continued strong demand for rental accommodation.</p>
<p>After plateauing in 2006-2007, Sudbury sales fell 13 per cent in 2008 and have fallen a further 26 per cent to the end of September. Sales will certainly continue this downward trend in 2009. Given the buyer&#8217;s market conditions, CMHC estimates a 27 per cent drop in existing home transactions when the year is complete. Sales will drop a further six per cent in 2010 as the market moves towards a balanced position.</p>
<p>The sale to new listings ratio, an indicator of the existing home market behaviour, is improving. After growing in the third quarter, Sudbury&#8217;s market will keep an upward trend, increasing its temperature. CMHC expects this ratio to end the year approaching 50 per cent, indicating that prices will adjust all the way into next year.</p>
<p>According to local sources, demand is greatest in the price ranges under 200,000 while the upper end of the market (&gt;$400.000) has not been greatly affected. Prices have been falling since mid-year 2008 after rising to unsustainably high levels over the prior four years. The price decrease will continue into 2010 but will be tempered by falling listings. Watch for average prices to fall 5.5 per cent in 2009 and level off in 2010.</p>
<p>Given the adjustment in home prices, there has been improvement in required income to purchase a home. Unfortunately, with the slowing economy, the adjustment to incomes has been stronger. As a result the net impact on affordability will decrease somewhat in 2010 after improving in 2009. Nonetheless, there are buyers in the market searching for lower priced homes.</p>
<p>Greater Sudbury has experienced a strike at Vale Inco, one of the biggest mining companies in the community. Consequently employment will decline 1.2 per cent in 2009 and recover only slightly, 0.5 per cent in 2010. The combination of job loss and labour force growth have caused the unemployment rate to head north, and will approach on average nine per cent this year and next.</p>
<p>After an increase of nearly nine per cent in 2008, average weekly earnings will drop this year declining three per cent and fall a more modest 0.5 per cent in 2010. Removing a relatively high proportion of mining and mining- related incomes from the mix would have had a downward impact on average weekly earnings over the course of this year.</p>
<p>In the short term local economic uncertainty will impact housing demand. However, the current commodity price rebound will form a solid long term foundation for growth in the broader Sudbury economy. Despite the current weakness in the Sudbury economy, some economic development plans are still moving ahead.</p>
<p>Migration has been positive of late, while natural increase is trending down. In-migration will trend downward in 2009 and 2010 prior to recovery in 2011. Mining workers affected by work stoppages may contemplate relocating if the national economy begins to improve, generating opportunities elsewhere.</p>
<p>The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.</p>
<p>Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range.</p>
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		<title>HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK Saskatoon</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:39:16 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=376</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander The CMHC forecast calls for 900 single-detached starts in 2009 followed by 1,000 in 2010. The 2009 production will be the lowest number of single starts since 2005 when there were 751 foundations poured. The decline in single-detached starts in 2009 compared to 2008 is due to a number of factors, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander</p>
<p>The CMHC forecast calls for 900 single-detached starts in 2009 followed by 1,000 in 2010. The 2009 production will be the lowest number of single starts since 2005 when there were 751 foundations poured. The decline in single-detached starts in 2009 compared to 2008 is due to a number of factors, including managing a build-up in the supply of new housing units, consumer resistance to price escalation, and heightened competition from resale housing. Reduced in-migration and a moderating economy in 2009 have also played a role in this market adjustment.</p>
<p>At mid-year, single-detached starts were 65 per cent below the historically high 2008 figure for the same period. The slowdown in new construction has allowed the inventory of complete and unabsorbed units to decline and a stronger second half of production is expected. At the end of August, single-detached starts had recorded two consecutive months of year-over-year increases. Though there has been a recent uptick in starts activity, CMHC expects builders will limit production to prevent a rise in inventory.</p>
<p>In terms of total supply, there were more than 800 single-detached units under construction or completed but unoccupied at the end of August. While this is the third highest supply on record for the month of August, total supply has been in decline, on a year-over-year basis, since December 2008.</p>
<p>The bulk of single units in supply are those in various stages of construction. The units under construction have been declining on a year-over-year basis since October 2008. The decline in the units under construction figure is due to slower starts since June 2008. As stated, only recently have starts increased on a year-over-year basis.</p>
<p>The number of single units that are completed and unoccupied now lies at 142 units, up from 115 one year earlier. Though higher than last year at this time, the completed and unoccupied count has seen monthly declines since December 2008 when inventory peaked at 244 units. Competition from the resale market may be having an impact on new single absorption. Industry sources state that investors who purchased new homes in the previous two years are now creating competition for homebuilders by listing their homes on the resale market at competitive prices.</p>
<p>To the end of August, there have been 757 single absorptions in 2009 compared to 819 at this time in 2008. Average absorption now stands at 95 units monthly compared to the 110 units absorbed monthly in 2008.</p>
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		<title>Long Term Economic Prospects Support Housing Market</title>
		<link>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/11/long-term-economic-prospects-support-housing-market/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:00:13 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=345</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The residential housing market will remain strong in historical terms this year and next. A moderate rebound is expected to push total provincial housing starts higher in 2010, to 3,525 units, following a decline to 3,400 in 2009. Economic growth in New Brunswick was limited in 2009 as exporters in the province continued to face [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The residential housing market will remain strong in historical terms this year and next. A moderate rebound is expected to push total provincial housing starts higher in 2010, to 3,525 units, following a decline to 3,400 in 2009.</p>
<p>Economic growth in New Brunswick was limited in 2009 as exporters in the province continued to face a decline in global demand for commodities. Fewer exports have also had a negative impact on the manufacturing and transportation sectors in the province. No significant increase in economic growth is expected until a global recovery begins to take hold in 2010.</p>
<p>Despite economic uncertainty, the long term outlook for New Brunswick contains positive elements which will serve to support housing demand. For example, the last provincial budget for 2009-2010 focused on job creation, with $1.2 billion set aside for infrastructure programs and support to New Brunswick businesses. Notwithstanding, the return of sustained economic expansion will rely heavily on capital investment.</p>
<p>Employment in New Brunswick&#8217;s three large urban centres has been stable in 2009. As a result, positive net-migration continued in both Moncton and Fredericton, as each centre benefited from solid service, retail and construction sectors. Conversely, in-migration in Saint John, which has been muted in recent years, is not likely to change during the remainder of this year and in 2010. Reduced housing demand in all three centres has led to a lower level of activity in both the new home and resale markets. Employment levels are expected to remain flat in 2010; however, this should not significantly affect the housing market.</p>
<p>The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.</p>
<p>Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range.</p>
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		<title>Continued Growth in Employment to be Supportive of Housing</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:52:11 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=342</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander Provincially, the labour force and employment are expected to rise moderately in 2010, while in Halifax, growth is expected to be more significant. Halifax will continue to see steady growth in the economy and this will translate into improving conditions in the local housing market. The local economy in Halifax continues [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander</p>
<p>Provincially, the labour force and employment are expected to rise moderately in 2010, while in Halifax, growth is expected to be more significant. Halifax will continue to see steady growth in the economy and this will translate into improving conditions in the local housing market.</p>
<p>The local economy in Halifax continues to benefit from positive migration patterns. With more people moving to Halifax than moving away, the labour force has been growing. Almost every month of 2009 saw greater numbers of people looking for work in Halifax and by the summer months there were more people looking for work than ever before. Fortunately, most of these job seekers found employment which resulted in a record level of employment in Halifax. Employment was up by three to four per cent in 2009 compared to 2008. Employment may ease off of record highs during certain months in the forecast period, however overall employment is expected to continue to show positive growth in 2010.</p>
<p>Employment is being bolstered by the construction industry and the public sector. Large construction projects and large military contracts have contributed to strength in these industries. The largest employment sector in Halifax is the services sector which has seen slow but steady growth of approximately three per cent so far in 2009. The opening of some new or trendy retail stores has contributed to the growth in this sector. Areas experiencing weakness are the finance, trade and primary goods sectors which are struggling due to global economic issues and reduced demand for exports. Wages are also expected to continue to move upwards. As of August 2009, seasonally adjusted average weekly earnings have risen by over six per cent compared to the 2008 average. Average earnings now exceed $39,000 per year compared to just under $37,000 in 2008.</p>
<p>Record employment levels and wages  will be supportive of housing activity in Halifax for the remainder of 2009 and 2010. Continued in-migration and near historic low interest rates will also contribute to increased housing demand in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM). In the near-term, some lingering effects of the weakened economy will keep demand subdued. In the medium- term, however, expect to see demand and activity begin to increase again in 2010.</p>
<p>The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.</p>
<p>Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range</p>
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		<title>In-Migration to Support Housing Market</title>
		<link>http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/2009/11/in-migration-to-support-housing-market-2/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:15:11 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://moishe-alexander-cmhc.com/?p=340</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander In-migration and low mortgage rates will lend strength to the housing market this year and next. Residential construction is expected to rebound in 2010 following declines in 2009. Economic recovery is expected to take hold in 2010 and result in a moderate rebound in growth following a contraction in the provincial [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander<br />
In-migration and low mortgage rates will lend strength to the housing market this year and next. Residential construction is expected to rebound in 2010 following declines in 2009. Economic recovery is expected to take hold in 2010 and result in a moderate rebound in growth following a contraction in the provincial economy in 2009. Overall, the provincial economy is faring better than many other areas of the country. This is due in part to the province&#8217;s efforts at diversifying the economy away from the traditional industries of agriculture and tourism. One of the key growth areas for the local economy has been in the technology sector, particularly in aerospace, which recorded increases in both sales and employment in the first part of 2009. This is helping to offset the declines seen in some of the traditional sectors so far this year. Through the first half of 2009, the number of international tourists visiting PEI has dropped and demand for shellfish continues to be weak. The one bright spot in the agricultural sector has been potato products, which have been strong, based on export values. The local economy is also getting a boost from various government stimulus programs.</p>
<p>Employment in the Charlottetown area is forecast to post a slight decline this year before posting a moderate increase in 2010. During the first three quarters of 2009, the decrease in employment in Charlottetown was dispersed among all industries except the public service sector, which posted a small increase. Despite the modest declines in employment in 2009, the capital region remains attractive for job seekers compared to other parts of the province. This fact has lead to the continued trend of urbanization, as Islanders continue to move to the capital region from more rural parts of the province.</p>
<p>Positive net-migration is one of the key factors that has contributed to the strong housing market over the past seven years. As of July 2009, the population of Prince Edward Island was estimated at 140,985; an increase of 1,534 persons or 1.1 per cent from 2008. While this increase in population was the result of both a natural increase and positive net migration, the vast majority was the result of the latter. From July 2008 to July 2009, 1,793 international immigrants chose the Island as their new home, which is the highest annual level since recording began in 1971. The main reason for this substantial increase in international migration was the increased effort that the province has allocated to this initiative. The results seen in 2007 and 2008 are expected to be the start of a new upward trend in international migration with preliminary data for 2009 indicating that the year could end up showing an even larger inflow of people. The local housing market is benefitting from this initiative as many of these households are relocating to the capital region, and as such require housing within all tenure types. While the aforementioned data</p>
<p>While the aforementioned data on immigration is positive, it is for the province as a whole. It is important to note that the capital region consistently outperforms the province. For the last census period ending in 2006, the Charlottetown CA, which encompasses the entire urban area around the city, recorded a population growth of 1,391 people or 2.4 per cent. While there was some natural population growth during this period, the majority of the increase was due to in-migration. For the Charlottetown area it had been typical that about 70 per cent of the people moving to the capital region came from elsewhere in the province, while the remainder were from other regions of the country. This ratio had remained fairly constant since the early 1990&#8242;s, but since 2006 it has started to change. The reason for this is twofold, with both the movement of people to the west and the recent influx in international immigrants. As earlier referenced, the influx of international immigration is expected to end up being even stronger in 2009 than 2008, due to the popularity of the province&#8217;s programs with new immigrants. This will especially benefit the capital region as the majority of the people are settling in the area. This trend should continue to bolster the local housing market over the forecast period, as the population continues to grow.</p>
<p>As a result of the aforementioned market forces, the Charlottetown housing market is expected to exceed the level set in 2008. Although single starts in Charlottetown recorded a decline so far in 2009, multiple starts at the end of the third quarter are on track to have the strongest year since 1988. Single starts are expected to decline 25 per cent in 2009, when compared to 2008. This decline was expected, as many potential homeowners are taking a wait and see approach, before making any large purchases. In addition, single home construction in Charlottetown posted seven years of impressive growth that mirrored the national trend. As such, the decline in 2009 is seen as the market returning to a more sustainable level. In contrast to the decline in singles, multiple starts will end the year close to setting a new record high. The strength in multiple starts is the result of several factors. The increase in multiple unit starts also created a situation where there was a temporary oversupply of rental units that was not fully absorbed until the end of 2007. However, one area where new construction has continued to remain strong is multiple units intended for homeownership. A key reason for the increased activity in this part of the market is the relatively lower cost of semi-detached and row units compared to single-detached homes. Despite the forecasted increase in semi-detached units over the next two years, it is expected that the overall housing market will remain strong during the forecast period. The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.</p>
<p>The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.</p>
<p>Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range.</p>
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