The Government of Canada announced today that the City of North Battleford has been approved for an infrastructure loan as part of Canada’s Economic Action Plan. The announcement was made by the Agriculture Minister Gerry Ritz and Member of Parliament (Battlefords – Lloydminster) on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“Our Government understands the importance of infrastructure in maintaining strong and prosperous communities,” said Minister Ritz. “This program is opening the door for municipalities to meet their housing-related infrastructure needs. Canada’s Economic Action Plan will continue to create jobs, stimulate communities in all corners of the country, and support Canadian workers and families.”

North Battleford has been approved for $2.5 million in a low-cost loan from CMHC’s Municipal Infrastructure Lending Program (MILP), to increase the water treatment capacity at the groundwater supply water treatment plant #1. The expansion will better utilize the existing groundwater supply facilities, will improve the availability of treated water storage and will reduce produced water loss for residents of North Battleford.

“The $2.5 million CMHC Municipal Infrastructure loan will help our city meet an increasing demand for water in North Battleford,” said North Battleford Mayor Ian Hamilton. “Site preparation for the expansion of Water Treatment Plant No.1 is now underway and the entire project will be complete by March 2011.”

Canada’s Economic Action Plan provides up to $2 billion in direct low-cost loans to municipalities, over two years, for housing-related infrastructure projects through the MILP. Municipal infrastructure loans are available to any municipality in Canada and provide a new source of funds for municipalities to invest in housing-related infrastructure projects. These low cost loans can also be used by municipalities to fund their contribution for cost-shared federal infrastructure programming.

Eligible projects include infrastructure related to housing services such as water, power generation and waste services, as well as local transportation infrastructure within and into residential areas, such as roads, sidewalks, lighting and green space.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable, and affordable homes — homes that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

Results from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s recently completed Rental Market Survey* revealed a higher vacancy rate for the Moncton CMA in the fall of 2009. In October of this year, the number of vacant units in Greater Moncton stood at 375. In comparison, there were 234 vacant units recorded at the time of last year’s Rental Market Survey. Consequently, the vacancy rate in Greater Moncton was up from last year’s level of 2.4 per cent to 3.8 per cent in the fall of 2009. The vacancy rate for the popular two bedroom units was consistent with the change in the overall vacancy rate, climbing from last year’s rate of 2.6 per cent to 3.6 per cent. This was not unexpected as two bedroom units account for approximately two thirds of the rental universe in the Moncton CMA. The vacancy rate for one bedroom units reached four per cent in the fall of 2009. This marked a significant increase from the low 1.5 per cent vacancy rate recorded last October. A general desire on behalf of local renters for the increased living space provided by two bedroom units has effectively reduced demand for one bedroom units. Within the tri-community area, Dieppe City had the lowest vacancy rate at 2.2 per cent, followed by the Town of Riverview and Moncton City at 3.4 and 4.0 per cent, respectively. In the outlying areas of the Moncton CMA, the vacancy rate rebounded from last year’s low of 0.9 per cent, climbing to 3.1 per cent. * The survey, completed during the first two weeks of October, is limited to privately initiated structures comprised of at least three rental units that were available for rent or completed before June 30, 2009.

In 2009, economic development in Greater Moncton continued to follow the same positive trend that has defined the region over the past decade. Overall employment, as of the end of October, was on pace to exceed last year’s record setting level. As a result of the stronger job market, Greater Moncton has enjoyed the strongest in-migration of all regions in the province during the past ten years. Housing market conditions in the Moncton CMA, starting last year, have become increasingly favorable to potential home owners. In particular, mortgage rates have remained at historically low levels and new listings have retreated moderately from record levels set in 2008. As a result, home ownership has moved within reach for a larger number of people in Greater Moncton, including those who currently are renters, thus limiting demand for rental units. In the tri-community area, the rental market in the Town of Riverview remained the most stable during the past 12 months, with the local vacancy rate remaining unchanged at 3.4 per cent. Rental unit demand had been on the rise in Riverview in recent years. Despite higher than average apartment starts in both 2007 and 2008, the vacancy rate declined in both years. In 2009, a decline in rental unit demand was offset by reduced rental unit construction, leading to the local vacancy rate remaining unchanged.

In Moncton City, the vacancy rate was comparable to the overall rate for the CMA at 4.0 per cent. Population growth has remained positive in Moncton City proper as the region’s economy continues to support economic development and attract people to the area. However, in-migration in 2009 has slowed compared to last year’s above average pace. In addition, apartment starts in Moncton City in 2008 were higher than the average for the last five years. This resulted in a relatively large infusion of new units in 2009 as projects started last year were completed. As such, local supply was ahead of demand with Moncton City’s vacancy rate rising to 4.0 per cent from last year’s level of 2.4 per cent. The vacancy rates in each of Moncton City’s four separate zones also increased in 2009. The largest fluctuation occurred in East Moncton. Last year, this zone posted Moncton City’s lowest vacancy rate at 1.9 per cent. In the fall of 2009, the vacancy rate in East Moncton was the highest at 4.6 per cent. In contrast, North Moncton had the lowest vacancy rate at 2.7 per cent. Not only was it the lowest, it was also the least changed among Moncton City’s four different zones, climbing 0.6 percentage points from last year’s rate of 2.1 per cent. In Central and West Moncton, the vacancy rate in the fall of 2009 was up to 4.5 and 3.6 per cent, respectively.

In the City of Dieppe, the vacancy rate inched up to 2.2 per cent in the fall of 2009, a moderate increase from 1.8 per cent last year. In general terms, population growth in Dieppe has outpaced both Moncton and Riverview in recent years. As a result, residential development has flourished in Dieppe. During this time, the popularity of semi-detached homes has increased resulting in tremendous growth in the Moncton CMA, with a significant number of new units added in the City of Dieppe as well. With semi-detached homes, consumers can obtain a newly-built product with a mortgage payment comparable to the typical monthly rent for a newer two bedroom apartment, while allowing the owner to build equity in their new home. As such, semi-detached units in Dieppe, which have nearly matched last year’s record setting pace in 2009, continue to lure renters to homeownership. This year, apartment starts are expected to post the third annual decline in Dieppe. However, with fewer consumers seeking rental units, supply and demand have maintained a relative balance, resulting in a moderate 0.4 percentage point change in Dieppe’s vacancy rate.

The overall vacancy rate in Halifax stood at 2.9 per cent in October, down from 3.4 per cent last fall. Vacancy rates in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) trended down in all submarkets but one in 2009. Average rents, based on structures common to both the 2008 and 2009 surveys, were up 2.8 per cent. In the HRM, Halifax City saw the largest decline in vacancies as the rate fell from 2.7 to 2.0 per cent in 2009. The Mainland North area of Halifax City saw the vacancy rate fall a full percentage point to 1.6 per cent. This submarket has a significant impact on the overall HRM vacancy rate as it is home to 28 per cent of the rental stock – the most of any submarket. On the other side of the harbor, Dartmouth City saw a more modest decline in vacancies from a rate of 5.5 to 5.2 per cent in 2009. Dartmouth North again saw the highest vacancy rate in the HRM at 5.6 per cent in 2009 while Dartmouth East recorded the only increase in vacancies – climbing from 4.4 to 5.4 per cent. The Metro Halifax vacancy rate of 2.9 per cent is only slightly higher than the national average of 2.8 per cent. Apart from Windsor, Halifax saw the largest decline in vacancies in 2009

with a 0.5 percentage point decrease. Canadian cities with the lowest vacancy rates in 2009 were Quebec City, Regina and St. John’s with rates of 0.6, 0.6 and 0.9 per cent respectively. Three of the cities with the highest vacancy rates, Calgary, Peterborough and Abbotsford also saw the largest increases in 2009 as vacancies climbed more than three percentage points in each of these major centres. Vacancy rates have remained relatively stable in Halifax for the past decade. In fact, the 2009 vacancy rate of 2.9 is only slightly below the ten-year average vacancy rate of 3.0 per cent. The vacancy rate has not fluctuated much over that time period, in spite of significant levels of new construction and new rental units being added to the supply. Over the past ten years, there have been approximately 585 new rental units added to the supply each year. Currently, there are nearly 600 more rental units under construction (as of October 2009) in the HRM most of which will be completed over the next 12 to 18 months. It is expected that current demand will be sufficient to offset the additional supply and keep vacancy rates within the recent ten-year range. Average rents in Halifax, increased by 2.8 per cent in 2009 compared to 2.0 per cent growth in both 2007 and 2008. This percentage increase is based on a fixed sample methodology including structures common to both this year’s and last year’s survey. Rents increased in response to the elevated demand that pushed vacancy rates downward. Based solely on this year’s sample, the average rent for a two- bedroom unit in Halifax was $877 in 2009. * The survey, completed during the first two weeks of October, is limited to privately initiated structures comprised of at least three rental units that were available for rent or completed before June 30, 2009.

Demand for two-bedroom units increased the most in Halifax in 2009. Two-bedroom units account for nearly 50 per cent of the rental stock in the city and saw the largest decline in vacancy rates from 4.2 to 3.3 per cent in 2009. The decrease in two-bedroom vacancies was largely impacted by the halving of the vacancy rate in Mainland North from 3.0 to 1.5 per cent. One and three-bedroom units saw more moderate vacancy rate declines from 2.8 to 2.4 per cent and from 2.9 to 2.7 per cent respectively. Bachelor units were the only bedroom-type to see an increase in the vacancy rate from 2.1 to 2.5 per cent in 2009. The vacancy rate in the south end of the Peninsula remained unchanged at 1.3 per cent with this area continuing to report the lowest rate in the HRM. Dartmouth North saw its vacancy rate decline from 6.1 to 5.6 per cent in 2009, but retained its 2008 position as having the highest vacancy rate in Halifax.

In terms of age, newer buildings continue to record the lowest vacancy rates, albeit slightly higher than last year. In buildings built since 2000, the vacancy rate increased from 0.8 to 1.0 per cent. This rate is less than half the rate of buildings built prior to 2000. Buildings built prior to 1974 saw the largest decline in vacancy rates of 1.3 percentage points. The oldest buildings (i.e., those built prior to 1960) saw vacancies decline from 4.5 to 3.2 per cent while the next oldest group (i.e., those built between 1960 and 1974) saw vacancies decline from 5.7 to 4.4 per cent. Based on building size, larger buildings continued to record the lowest vacancy rates in the city. Buildings with more than 100 units saw vacancies decline from 2.6 to 2.1 per cent. Smaller buildings with six to 19 units saw the highest vacancy rate of 3.8 per cent in 2009, but also the largest decline from 4.8 per cent in 2008.

The overall average rent increased 2.8 per cent in 2009 based on units common to both the 2008 and 2009 surveys. Three-bedroom units saw the largest increase of 3.1 per cent, while one-bedroom units saw the lowest increase in average rents of 2.6 per cent. Just as in 2008, the average rent increases for two- bedroom units matched the overall HRM increase of 2.8 per cent. In terms of submarkets, Peninsula South saw the most growth in average rents at 4.2 per cent while Dartmouth North saw the lowest increase in average rents of 1.9 per cent. Based solely on the 2009 survey data, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Halifax was $877 per month as of October. Peninsula South remains the highest priced market in the HRM with an average two- bedroom unit renting for $1,318 per month which is 50 per cent higher than the overall HRM average. All other submarkets saw rents below the overall average except for Peninsula North which is just one per cent above the average. The lowest average rents can be found in Dartmouth South and Mainland South where two-bedroom units rent for $683 and $728 per month respectively. Newer buildings continue to

Highlights – Gatineau

According to the results of the latest CMHC Rental Market Survey, the rental housing vacancy rate in the Quebec part of the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA reached 2.2 per cent in October 2009, up by 0.3 of a percentage point over a year earlier. The rental market therefore eased but still remained relatively tight. The proportion of vacant units in the metropolitan area was in fact slightly lower than the average for Quebec overall (2.3 per cent). The relative stability of the vacancy rate in the Gatineau area was attributable to the fact that the continued homeownership trend was counterbalanced by strong migration.

Gatineau was not the only area where the rental market showed little change, however, as this was also the case in the Montréal, Québec and Saguenay CMAs. On the other hand, conditions eased in Sherbrooke and Trois-Rivières, two areas where the job losses among young people slowed the rate of household formation. Lastly, in the Ontario part of the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA, the proportion of vacant units remained below the level recorded in Gatineau, rising from 1.4 per cent in October 2008 to 1.5 per cent a year later.

The small rise in the vacancy rate recorded in the Gatineau area was due in part to the job losses that occurred over the past year. Following a particularly good year for job creation in 2008, with an annual gain of more than 5 per cent, the first ten months of 2009 were marked by the elimination of some 5,000 positions compared to the average level for 2008. As is often the case in difficult economic times, the youngest workers sustained the greatest losses, with the average number of jobs among people aged from 15 to 24 years falling by about 4,000 between 2008 and 2009. The slightly tougher labour market conditions therefore limited household formation in this age group and removed some pressure on rental housing demand.

The homeownership trend also contributed to the increase in the vacancy rate in 2009. Despite the economic uncertainties that prevailed at the beginning of the year, the low mortgage rates and the contribution of the public service to the regional economy helped maintain housing starts at high levels. As well, the Gatineau area saw the construction of record numbers of row homes, semi- detached houses and condominium apartments–all housing types that are more affordable than single-detached homes and often preferred by renters accessing homeownership.

However, migration limited the easing of the rental market. In fact, the latest migration data released by Statistics Canada revealed that, between 2007 and 2008, there were 2,800 more in-migrants than out-migrants. It should be specified that, just like in previous years, it was the international component of net migration that contributed the most to the demand for rental housing. During this period, more than 1,000 new residents came from abroad. This trend likely continued in 2008/2009.

Just like the overall metropolitan area, the Aylmer sector did not register a significant change in its vacancy rate compared to October 2008. It should be noted that Aylmer was the sector with the highest proportion of unoccupied apartments in the Gatineau area. In fact, 5 per cent of the apartments there did not have occupants this past fall, compared to 5.2 per cent a year earlier. In the other sectors, the vacancy rates all varied within a narrow range from 1.6 per cent to 2.6 per cent. The difference between these rates and the rate in Aylmer was likely due, firstto the higher rents in this sector and, second, to the steady homeownership trend there. In fact, Aylmer registered the largest volume of homeowner housing starts in the area. A number of renters who already lived in this sector certainly contributed to the surge in property sales there and to the fact that Aylmer once again had the highest proportion of vacant rental units in the metropolitan area.

In Hull, which has more than half of all the rental housing units in the Gatineau area, the vacancy rate remained unchanged, at 1.6 per cent, in October 2009. The popularity of this sector is attributable to its proximity to Canada’s capital and to the presence of institutions of higher learning. Despite the job losses observed among young people since the fall of 2008, which may have caused some not to renew their leases in July, the increase in student enrolment at the Cégep de l’Outaouais and the Université du Québec en Outaouais seems to have helped landlords rent out their available units. In fact, enrolment at these two institutions rose again this past fall. The gain was 3.3 per cent at the Université du Québec en Outaouais while, at the Cégep de l’Outaouais, enrolment reached a record level, mainly thanks to the recent addition of new health programs.

In the Gatineau sector, the proportion of vacant apartments reached 2.6 per cent in October 2009, up from 1.7 per cent in October 2008. Market conditions also eased in the outlying area, where the percentage of unoccupied units rose from 1.3 per cent in the fall of 2008 to 2.3 per cent this past fall. The arrival of many apartments in these sectors during the last year increased the supply of units. In fact, 87 rental dwellings were added in the outlying area between July 2008 and June 2009, compared to 16 the year before. The continued homeownership trend also caused some rental housing units to be vacated, a number of which were still unoccupied in October 2009.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts reached 158,500 units in November. This is an increase from 157,400 units started in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“The improvement in housing starts continued in November,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Despite a small decline in November’s multiple home construction, overall starts numbers were up due to a solid increase in singles starts.” The November total is the highest of the year.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 0.7 per cent to 141,100 units in November. Urban multiple starts decreased slightly from 72,500 units in October to 71,300 units in November. Single urban starts increased by 3.4 per cent to 69,800 units in November.

November’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 10 per cent in Quebec, by 8.2 per cent in the Prairies and by 6.2 per cent in British Columbia. The rate of urban starts decreased by 8.3 per cent in Ontario and by 9.8 per cent in Atlantic Canada.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17,400 units in November.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

Funding of $2.4 million for 20 new affordable housing rental units for seniors living on low income was announced today in Belleville.

Daryl Kramp, Member of Parliament for Prince Edward – Hastings, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), and the Honourable Leona Dombrowsky, Member of Provincial Parliament for Prince Edward – Hastings and Minister of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs on behalf of the Honourable Jim Watson, Ontario’s Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing; along with Lloyd Churchill, Mayor of Bancroft and Chair of the Hastings/Quinte Social Services Committee on behalf of Warden of Hastings County, Ron Emond and Councillor Garnet Thompson on behalf of Neil Ellis, Mayor of Belleville, made the announcement.

“The Government of Canada is helping Canadians during these tough economic times and giving hope to seniors who need quality, affordable housing that meets their needs,” said MP Kramp. “This investment is possible through Canada’s Economic Action Plan, the federal government’s plan to stimulate the economy and create jobs during the global recession. For Ontario, this includes a $1.2 billion joint investment.”

“New housing initiatives add significant support to the McGuinty government’s Poverty Reduction Strategy,” said MPP Dombrowsky. “We will continue to work with our municipal partners to ensure more units are built during the life of this program.”

“The support of both the federal and provincial governments is crucial to our collective attempts to find housing that is affordable for those in search of an adequate, affordable home,” said Warden Emond. “With over 1300 households still on our affordable housing wait list the challenge is great but with today’s announcement we are making a real difference here in the City of Belleville.”

“This joint funding towards affordable housing for seniors in Belleville is wonderful news and will be welcomed by those individuals currently on the waiting list for affordable housing in our community,” said Mayor Ellis. “It is another great example of what can be accomplished when all levels of government work together for the betterment of all citizens.”

The Government of Canada wants to ensure that Canadians on fixed incomes can live with independence and dignity and remain in their communities, close to family and friends. Canada’s Economic Action Plan provides $400 million, over two years, to build new rental housing for low-income seniors. Overall, the Economic Action Plan includes $2 billion for new and existing social housing, plus up to $2 billion in loans to municipalities for housing-related infrastructure.

Canada’s Economic Action Plan builds on the Government of Canada’s commitment in 2008 of more than $1.9 billion, over the next five years, to improve and build new affordable housing and help the homeless.

Today’s announcement celebrates the funding for 20 new affordable rental units for seniors at 185 Cannifton Road, in Belleville. The project is sponsored by the Corporation of the County of Hastings.

Funding of $4.7 million for 52 new affordable housing rental units for seniors living on low income was announced today in London.

Ed Holder, Member of Parliament for London West, on behalf of the Honourable Diane Finley, Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada and Minister Responsible for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), and the Honourable Chris Bentley, Attorney General and Member of Provincial Parliament for London West on behalf of the Honourable Jim Watson, Ontario’s Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing; along with David Winninger, Councillor on behalf of Anne Marie DeCicco-Best, Mayor of the City of London, made the announcement.

“The Government of Canada is helping Canadians during these tough economic times and giving hope to seniors who need quality, affordable housing that meets their needs,” said MP Holder. “This investment is possible through our government’s Economic Action Plan, that is stimulating the economy and creating jobs during the global recession. For Ontario, this includes a $1.2 billion joint investment.”

“New housing initiatives add significant support to the McGuinty government’s Poverty Reduction Strategy,” said MPP Bentley. “We will continue to work with our municipal partners to ensure more units are built during the life of this program.”

“This multi-level funding is very important to all Londoners, especially our seniors, as we continue to work together to combat homelessness, through the provision of decent affordable housing in our community,” said Mayor Anne Marie DeCicco-Best.

The Government of Canada wants to ensure that Canadians on fixed incomes can live with independence and dignity and remain in their communities, close to family and friends. Canada’s Economic Action Plan provides $400 million, over two years, to build new rental housing for low-income seniors. Overall, the Economic Action Plan includes $2 billion for new and existing social housing, plus up to $2 billion in loans to municipalities for housing-related infrastructure.

Canada’s Economic Action Plan builds on the Government of Canada’s commitment in 2008 of more than $1.9 billion, over the next five years, to improve and build new affordable housing and help the homeless.

With some 1,850 new homes expected to be started in both 2009 and 2010, new home construction is expected to remain relatively stable. This is mostly due to a weak rebound of single-detached home construction,which is expected to increase by only 50 units from the 2009 level.

The weak rebound in single-detached home construction is mostly due to competition from the resale market, especially from the nearly new category (homes of 1-5 year vintage). Strong growth in new single-detached home construction before 2006 created a large stock, and some of them are being offered for sale in the resale market. These homes are very popular among doctors, nurses or other health care or natural sciences related professionals. During the past few years, they tended to purchase new from builders because the resale market was tight. However, with a larger offering of nearly new homes on the market, they tend to find what they want in the resale market. With listings of resale homes expected to remain high, these professionals will tend to purchase from resale than directly from builders.

There are reports that some builders may be building up inventories in order to better compete with the resale market, by being able to have homes ready for customers to move into as soon as the transaction closes. However, at the end of September, the level of completed and unabsorbed homes dropped to 99 units, down from nearly 200 units earlier this year.

Apartment construction will be relatively strong in 2009 and 2010. Overall apartment starts will reach 850 units in 2009, and 800 units in 2010.Many of them will continue to be in the high-end rental category. Empty nesters and retirees who like the convenience of an apartment lifestyle are the key customer group for these apartments.

Condominium apartments are also becoming a factor in the London housing market. The popularity of high-end rental apartments among empty nesters and retirees has resulted in some showing interest in ownership. Developers are beginning to build high rise condominiums to satisfy this demand.

CMHC forecasts total housing starts of 850 units in 2009 and 950 units in 2010. Expect 550 new single-detached homes to break ground in Regina this year, 44 per cent off the 22-year high of 979 units in 2008. Single-detached starts will rise to 600 units in 2010, a nine per cent lift from 2009.

Higher new home inventories and competition from the resale market have prompted builders to scale back construction this year. Demand for new homes is slower due to double- digit price growth in the past two years. Economic uncertainty has also played a role in reducing demand this year. With new home supply past its peak and inventory stabilizing by 2010, builders will drive production up by over nine per cent from 2009 levels. Stable prices, persistently low mortgage rates, and economic growth will also encourage the purchase of new homes.

Seeking to contain inventories, Regina builders started only 337 single-detached homes to the end of August, down 49 per cent from 2008 at this time. As a result, the level of single-detached units under construction declined 23 per cent compared to August 2008. Despite slower starts, the 677 singles under construction this August represent the second highest volume of single units underway for that month since 1984.

As demand has cooled and completions have picked-up, 44 completed single-detached homes remained unsold this August, 42 per cent more than one year prior and the highest August inventory of unsold units in eight years.

Given an average absorption rate of 70 singles per month, it will take the market about 10 months to deplete the 721 single-detached homes in supply this August. One year earlier, the 908 single-detached homes that were in supply could sustain the market for about 15 months, as it was absorbing an average of 60 single-detached units per month. Although market conditions are improving and moving toward balanced conditions, the market is still favouring buyers. Share of starts in

Following a 56 per cent decline in 2008, total housing starts across the Edmonton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) are on pace to decrease by another 24 per cent this year to 5,000 units. This will represent the lowest level of activity for the region’s home builders since 1997. While single- detached construction has staged a modest recovery since the summer, a continued downturn in the multi- family sector will hold down this year’s numbers. In 2010, a sustained improvement in single starts combined with a moderate rebound in multiples will boost total starts by 29 per cent to 6,450 units. While representing a sizable gain over this year’s volumes, total starts next year remain a fraction of the 10,600+ units started on average during the 10 year period 1999-to-2008.

Single-detached starts increased by 14 per cent during the first nine months of 2009 but the improvements have come on gradually as the year has progressed. Activity levels were down by 39 per cent year-over-year at the end of the first quarter but have generally exceeded last year’s production since then. Price reductions, various incentives, and low mortgage rates have helped to bolster demand in 2009. This trend should continue for the balance of 2009, with annual production nearing the 3,200 unit mark. This will represent an increase of 22.5 per cent over 2008 but will still be well below activity levels reported over the past decade. Look for these gains to continue in 2010, with single starts of around 4,200 units. The tepid outlook for employment growth will temper the rate of increase going into 2010. Inventory levels, including show homes, peaked in August 2008 and have been trending downward throughout much of the past year. As shown in Figure 2, the show home component of inventory has started to move upward as builders ramp-up marketing efforts. The inventory of complete and unabsorbed spec homes, meanwhile, has trended to its lowest levels since September 2006.

Statistics Canada’s New House Price Index (NHPI) is forecasted by CMHC to decrease by 10.5 per cent this year before staging a two per cent improvement in 2010. These price changes have begun to show up in CMHC’s market absorption surveys but the overall average absorbed price has held up surprising well in 2009. To the end of August, the average absorbed price increased this year nine per cent to $545,327. While units priced under $400,000 and over $600,000 have gained market share this year, mid-range product selling between $400-600,000 lost ground compared with last year.

CMHC forecasts an average absorbed single-detached price this year of close to $535,000, for a 4.5 per cent gain over 2008. The expected median value will be much lower as the impact of high-priced homes is less using this measure. In 2010, the absorbed average price will soften due to the lagged effect of when homes are priced (often before construction begins) and when they are captured in our survey (which is at completion). The pressure for higher negotiated selling prices will come from builders who had trimmed their margins over the past year in order to clear their unsold inventory. With better economic times ahead, land and labour costs as well as material prices such as lumber and concrete are expected to increase.