Moishe Alexander and Canadian Funding Corporation Review CMHC Reports

Posted by Moshe Alexander

Results from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s recently completed Rental Market Survey* revealed a higher vacancy rate for the Moncton CMA in the fall of 2009. In October of this year, the number of vacant units in Greater Moncton stood at 375. In comparison, there were 234 vacant units recorded at the time of last year’s Rental Market Survey. Consequently, the vacancy rate in Greater Moncton was up from last year’s level of 2.4 per cent to 3.8 per cent in the fall of 2009. The vacancy rate for the popular two bedroom units was consistent with the change in the overall vacancy rate, climbing from last year’s rate of 2.6 per cent to 3.6 per cent. This was not unexpected as two bedroom units account for approximately two thirds of the rental universe in the Moncton CMA. The vacancy rate for one bedroom units reached four per cent in the fall of 2009. This marked a significant increase from the low 1.5 per cent vacancy rate recorded last October. A general desire on behalf of local renters for the increased living space provided by two bedroom units has effectively reduced demand for one bedroom units. Within the tri-community area, Dieppe City had the lowest vacancy rate at 2.2 per cent, followed by the Town of Riverview and Moncton City at 3.4 and 4.0 per cent, respectively. In the outlying areas of the Moncton CMA, the vacancy rate rebounded from last year’s low of 0.9 per cent, climbing to 3.1 per cent. * The survey, completed during the first two weeks of October, is limited to privately initiated structures comprised of at least three rental units that were available for rent or completed before June 30, 2009.

In 2009, economic development in Greater Moncton continued to follow the same positive trend that has defined the region over the past decade. Overall employment, as of the end of October, was on pace to exceed last year’s record setting level. As a result of the stronger job market, Greater Moncton has enjoyed the strongest in-migration of all regions in the province during the past ten years. Housing market conditions in the Moncton CMA, starting last year, have become increasingly favorable to potential home owners. In particular, mortgage rates have remained at historically low levels and new listings have retreated moderately from record levels set in 2008. As a result, home ownership has moved within reach for a larger number of people in Greater Moncton, including those who currently are renters, thus limiting demand for rental units. In the tri-community area, the rental market in the Town of Riverview remained the most stable during the past 12 months, with the local vacancy rate remaining unchanged at 3.4 per cent. Rental unit demand had been on the rise in Riverview in recent years. Despite higher than average apartment starts in both 2007 and 2008, the vacancy rate declined in both years. In 2009, a decline in rental unit demand was offset by reduced rental unit construction, leading to the local vacancy rate remaining unchanged.

In Moncton City, the vacancy rate was comparable to the overall rate for the CMA at 4.0 per cent. Population growth has remained positive in Moncton City proper as the region’s economy continues to support economic development and attract people to the area. However, in-migration in 2009 has slowed compared to last year’s above average pace. In addition, apartment starts in Moncton City in 2008 were higher than the average for the last five years. This resulted in a relatively large infusion of new units in 2009 as projects started last year were completed. As such, local supply was ahead of demand with Moncton City’s vacancy rate rising to 4.0 per cent from last year’s level of 2.4 per cent. The vacancy rates in each of Moncton City’s four separate zones also increased in 2009. The largest fluctuation occurred in East Moncton. Last year, this zone posted Moncton City’s lowest vacancy rate at 1.9 per cent. In the fall of 2009, the vacancy rate in East Moncton was the highest at 4.6 per cent. In contrast, North Moncton had the lowest vacancy rate at 2.7 per cent. Not only was it the lowest, it was also the least changed among Moncton City’s four different zones, climbing 0.6 percentage points from last year’s rate of 2.1 per cent. In Central and West Moncton, the vacancy rate in the fall of 2009 was up to 4.5 and 3.6 per cent, respectively.

In the City of Dieppe, the vacancy rate inched up to 2.2 per cent in the fall of 2009, a moderate increase from 1.8 per cent last year. In general terms, population growth in Dieppe has outpaced both Moncton and Riverview in recent years. As a result, residential development has flourished in Dieppe. During this time, the popularity of semi-detached homes has increased resulting in tremendous growth in the Moncton CMA, with a significant number of new units added in the City of Dieppe as well. With semi-detached homes, consumers can obtain a newly-built product with a mortgage payment comparable to the typical monthly rent for a newer two bedroom apartment, while allowing the owner to build equity in their new home. As such, semi-detached units in Dieppe, which have nearly matched last year’s record setting pace in 2009, continue to lure renters to homeownership. This year, apartment starts are expected to post the third annual decline in Dieppe. However, with fewer consumers seeking rental units, supply and demand have maintained a relative balance, resulting in a moderate 0.4 percentage point change in Dieppe’s vacancy rate.

admin CMHC, Canada, affordable housing, moishe alexander area, bedroom, Canada, cent, City, CMA, demand, Dieppe, Dieppe City, East Moncton, fall, Greater, level, Market, Moncton, Moncton City, Moshe Alexander Results, North Moncton, number, October, rate, Riverview, survey, vacancy, West Moncton, year

Posted by Moshe Alexander

The overall vacancy rate in Halifax stood at 2.9 per cent in October, down from 3.4 per cent last fall. Vacancy rates in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) trended down in all submarkets but one in 2009. Average rents, based on structures common to both the 2008 and 2009 surveys, were up 2.8 per cent. In the HRM, Halifax City saw the largest decline in vacancies as the rate fell from 2.7 to 2.0 per cent in 2009. The Mainland North area of Halifax City saw the vacancy rate fall a full percentage point to 1.6 per cent. This submarket has a significant impact on the overall HRM vacancy rate as it is home to 28 per cent of the rental stock – the most of any submarket. On the other side of the harbor, Dartmouth City saw a more modest decline in vacancies from a rate of 5.5 to 5.2 per cent in 2009. Dartmouth North again saw the highest vacancy rate in the HRM at 5.6 per cent in 2009 while Dartmouth East recorded the only increase in vacancies – climbing from 4.4 to 5.4 per cent. The Metro Halifax vacancy rate of 2.9 per cent is only slightly higher than the national average of 2.8 per cent. Apart from Windsor, Halifax saw the largest decline in vacancies in 2009

with a 0.5 percentage point decrease. Canadian cities with the lowest vacancy rates in 2009 were Quebec City, Regina and St. John’s with rates of 0.6, 0.6 and 0.9 per cent respectively. Three of the cities with the highest vacancy rates, Calgary, Peterborough and Abbotsford also saw the largest increases in 2009 as vacancies climbed more than three percentage points in each of these major centres. Vacancy rates have remained relatively stable in Halifax for the past decade. In fact, the 2009 vacancy rate of 2.9 is only slightly below the ten-year average vacancy rate of 3.0 per cent. The vacancy rate has not fluctuated much over that time period, in spite of significant levels of new construction and new rental units being added to the supply. Over the past ten years, there have been approximately 585 new rental units added to the supply each year. Currently, there are nearly 600 more rental units under construction (as of October 2009) in the HRM most of which will be completed over the next 12 to 18 months. It is expected that current demand will be sufficient to offset the additional supply and keep vacancy rates within the recent ten-year range. Average rents in Halifax, increased by 2.8 per cent in 2009 compared to 2.0 per cent growth in both 2007 and 2008. This percentage increase is based on a fixed sample methodology including structures common to both this year’s and last year’s survey. Rents increased in response to the elevated demand that pushed vacancy rates downward. Based solely on this year’s sample, the average rent for a two- bedroom unit in Halifax was $877 in 2009. * The survey, completed during the first two weeks of October, is limited to privately initiated structures comprised of at least three rental units that were available for rent or completed before June 30, 2009.

Demand for two-bedroom units increased the most in Halifax in 2009. Two-bedroom units account for nearly 50 per cent of the rental stock in the city and saw the largest decline in vacancy rates from 4.2 to 3.3 per cent in 2009. The decrease in two-bedroom vacancies was largely impacted by the halving of the vacancy rate in Mainland North from 3.0 to 1.5 per cent. One and three-bedroom units saw more moderate vacancy rate declines from 2.8 to 2.4 per cent and from 2.9 to 2.7 per cent respectively. Bachelor units were the only bedroom-type to see an increase in the vacancy rate from 2.1 to 2.5 per cent in 2009. The vacancy rate in the south end of the Peninsula remained unchanged at 1.3 per cent with this area continuing to report the lowest rate in the HRM. Dartmouth North saw its vacancy rate decline from 6.1 to 5.6 per cent in 2009, but retained its 2008 position as having the highest vacancy rate in Halifax.

In terms of age, newer buildings continue to record the lowest vacancy rates, albeit slightly higher than last year. In buildings built since 2000, the vacancy rate increased from 0.8 to 1.0 per cent. This rate is less than half the rate of buildings built prior to 2000. Buildings built prior to 1974 saw the largest decline in vacancy rates of 1.3 percentage points. The oldest buildings (i.e., those built prior to 1960) saw vacancies decline from 4.5 to 3.2 per cent while the next oldest group (i.e., those built between 1960 and 1974) saw vacancies decline from 5.7 to 4.4 per cent. Based on building size, larger buildings continued to record the lowest vacancy rates in the city. Buildings with more than 100 units saw vacancies decline from 2.6 to 2.1 per cent. Smaller buildings with six to 19 units saw the highest vacancy rate of 3.8 per cent in 2009, but also the largest decline from 4.8 per cent in 2008.

The overall average rent increased 2.8 per cent in 2009 based on units common to both the 2008 and 2009 surveys. Three-bedroom units saw the largest increase of 3.1 per cent, while one-bedroom units saw the lowest increase in average rents of 2.6 per cent. Just as in 2008, the average rent increases for two- bedroom units matched the overall HRM increase of 2.8 per cent. In terms of submarkets, Peninsula South saw the most growth in average rents at 4.2 per cent while Dartmouth North saw the lowest increase in average rents of 1.9 per cent. Based solely on the 2009 survey data, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Halifax was $877 per month as of October. Peninsula South remains the highest priced market in the HRM with an average two- bedroom unit renting for $1,318 per month which is 50 per cent higher than the overall HRM average. All other submarkets saw rents below the overall average except for Peninsula North which is just one per cent above the average. The lowest average rents can be found in Dartmouth South and Mainland South where two-bedroom units rent for $683 and $728 per month respectively. Newer buildings continue to

admin CMHC, Canada, affordable housing, moishe alexander area, calgary, cent, Dartmouth City, decline, demand, fall, Halifax City, HRM, increase, John, Moshe Alexander The, North, October, percentage, quebec city, rate, Regina, rent, St, supply, vacancy, Windsor, year

Posted by Moishe Alexander

Highlights – Gatineau

According to the results of the latest CMHC Rental Market Survey, the rental housing vacancy rate in the Quebec part of the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA reached 2.2 per cent in October 2009, up by 0.3 of a percentage point over a year earlier. The rental market therefore eased but still remained relatively tight. The proportion of vacant units in the metropolitan area was in fact slightly lower than the average for Quebec overall (2.3 per cent). The relative stability of the vacancy rate in the Gatineau area was attributable to the fact that the continued homeownership trend was counterbalanced by strong migration.

Gatineau was not the only area where the rental market showed little change, however, as this was also the case in the Montréal, Québec and Saguenay CMAs. On the other hand, conditions eased in Sherbrooke and Trois-Rivières, two areas where the job losses among young people slowed the rate of household formation. Lastly, in the Ontario part of the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA, the proportion of vacant units remained below the level recorded in Gatineau, rising from 1.4 per cent in October 2008 to 1.5 per cent a year later.

The small rise in the vacancy rate recorded in the Gatineau area was due in part to the job losses that occurred over the past year. Following a particularly good year for job creation in 2008, with an annual gain of more than 5 per cent, the first ten months of 2009 were marked by the elimination of some 5,000 positions compared to the average level for 2008. As is often the case in difficult economic times, the youngest workers sustained the greatest losses, with the average number of jobs among people aged from 15 to 24 years falling by about 4,000 between 2008 and 2009. The slightly tougher labour market conditions therefore limited household formation in this age group and removed some pressure on rental housing demand.

The homeownership trend also contributed to the increase in the vacancy rate in 2009. Despite the economic uncertainties that prevailed at the beginning of the year, the low mortgage rates and the contribution of the public service to the regional economy helped maintain housing starts at high levels. As well, the Gatineau area saw the construction of record numbers of row homes, semi- detached houses and condominium apartments–all housing types that are more affordable than single-detached homes and often preferred by renters accessing homeownership.

However, migration limited the easing of the rental market. In fact, the latest migration data released by Statistics Canada revealed that, between 2007 and 2008, there were 2,800 more in-migrants than out-migrants. It should be specified that, just like in previous years, it was the international component of net migration that contributed the most to the demand for rental housing. During this period, more than 1,000 new residents came from abroad. This trend likely continued in 2008/2009.

Just like the overall metropolitan area, the Aylmer sector did not register a significant change in its vacancy rate compared to October 2008. It should be noted that Aylmer was the sector with the highest proportion of unoccupied apartments in the Gatineau area. In fact, 5 per cent of the apartments there did not have occupants this past fall, compared to 5.2 per cent a year earlier. In the other sectors, the vacancy rates all varied within a narrow range from 1.6 per cent to 2.6 per cent. The difference between these rates and the rate in Aylmer was likely due, firstto the higher rents in this sector and, second, to the steady homeownership trend there. In fact, Aylmer registered the largest volume of homeowner housing starts in the area. A number of renters who already lived in this sector certainly contributed to the surge in property sales there and to the fact that Aylmer once again had the highest proportion of vacant rental units in the metropolitan area.

In Hull, which has more than half of all the rental housing units in the Gatineau area, the vacancy rate remained unchanged, at 1.6 per cent, in October 2009. The popularity of this sector is attributable to its proximity to Canada’s capital and to the presence of institutions of higher learning. Despite the job losses observed among young people since the fall of 2008, which may have caused some not to renew their leases in July, the increase in student enrolment at the Cégep de l’Outaouais and the Université du Québec en Outaouais seems to have helped landlords rent out their available units. In fact, enrolment at these two institutions rose again this past fall. The gain was 3.3 per cent at the Université du Québec en Outaouais while, at the Cégep de l’Outaouais, enrolment reached a record level, mainly thanks to the recent addition of new health programs.

In the Gatineau sector, the proportion of vacant apartments reached 2.6 per cent in October 2009, up from 1.7 per cent in October 2008. Market conditions also eased in the outlying area, where the percentage of unoccupied units rose from 1.3 per cent in the fall of 2008 to 2.3 per cent this past fall. The arrival of many apartments in these sectors during the last year increased the supply of units. In fact, 87 rental dwellings were added in the outlying area between July 2008 and June 2009, compared to 16 the year before. The continued homeownership trend also caused some rental housing units to be vacated, a number of which were still unoccupied in October 2009.

admin CMHC, Canada, Ontario, moishe alexander area, Aylmer, Canada, cent, fact, Gatineau, homeownership, housing, Hull, Market, October, Ontario, proportion, Quebec, rate, sector, trend, vacancy, year