Moishe Alexander and Canadian Funding Corporation Review CMHC Reports

While construction is up by 2 per cent for the first nine months of the year in the Quebec part of the Ottawa-Gatineau census metropolitan area (CMA), 2009 will end with fewer housing starts than in 2008. It is expected that a total of 3,000 units While construction is up by 2 per cent for the first nine months of the year in the Quebec part of the Ottawa-Gatineau census metropolitan area (CMA), 2009 will end with fewer housing starts than in 2008. It is expected that a total of 3,000 units

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Posted by Moishe Alexander

New home construction in the Winnipeg CMA will move upward in 2010 following a slower year for builders in 2009. Local builders are on pace to start 1,925 homes in 2009, a decline of 36 per cent from 2008, before production will move up 25 per cent to 2,400 units in 2010.

To the end of September 2009, total starts are 33 per cent below the same period in 2008, with 1,504 foundations poured compared to 2,247 during the first nine months of 2008. This reduction has been a response to elevated inventories in both the single-detached and multi-family markets as well as a lower level of demand created by the economic uncertainty that existed over the first half of the year.

Given demographic patterns in the Winnipeg CMA, both 2009 and 2010 will see the rate of household formation in the city surpass housing starts. Lower starts to adjust for heightened inventories are necessary to bring levels in line with long term averages and the new home market into balance again.

The single-detached sector will finish 2009 with 1,425 starts, down more than 26 per cent from 2008. Activity will rebound in 2010 when 1,600 starts will be recorded, 12 per cent more than 2009. Price growth will remain positive, but modest, with the New House Price Index rising 2.5 per cent in 2009 and 3.0 per cent in 2010.

While the number of single-detached units under construction has recently moved slightly below the ten-year average at 691 units, the number of complete and unabsorbed units remains high by historical standards at 199 units. That compares to a ten-year average of 169 units. Nonetheless, the decline in starts earlier in the year has allowed for the absorption of many complete and unabsorbed units, which reached their peak of 301 units in November of last year. Despite the recent decline in inventory, builders have been hesitant to start new spec units given current market conditions.

The challenges faced by builders in 2009 are underscored by the 1,053 single starts recorded through September, a decline of 28 per cent from the same period in 2008.

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Posted by Moishe Alexander

Provincially, the labour force and employment are expected to rise moderately in 2010, while in Halifax, growth is expected to be more significant. Halifax will continue to see steady growth in the economy and this will translate into improving conditions in the local housing market.

The local economy in Halifax continues to benefit from positive migration patterns. With more people moving to Halifax than moving away, the labour force has been growing. Almost every month of 2009 saw greater numbers of people looking for work in Halifax and by the summer months there were more people looking for work than ever before. Fortunately, most of these job seekers found employment which resulted in a record level of employment in Halifax. Employment was up by three to four per cent in 2009 compared to 2008. Employment may ease off of record highs during certain months in the forecast period, however overall employment is expected to continue to show positive growth in 2010.

Employment is being bolstered by the construction industry and the public sector. Large construction projects and large military contracts have contributed to strength in these industries. The largest employment sector in Halifax is the services sector which has seen slow but steady growth of approximately three per cent so far in 2009. The opening of some new or trendy retail stores has contributed to the growth in this sector. Areas experiencing weakness are the finance, trade and primary goods sectors which are struggling due to global economic issues and reduced demand for exports. Wages are also expected to continue to move upwards. As of August 2009, seasonally adjusted average weekly earnings have risen by over six per cent compared to the 2008 average. Average earnings now exceed $39,000 per year compared to just under $37,000 in 2008.

Record employment levels and wages  will be supportive of housing activity in Halifax for the remainder of 2009 and 2010. Continued in-migration and near historic low interest rates will also contribute to increased housing demand in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM). In the near-term, some lingering effects of the weakened economy will keep demand subdued. In the medium- term, however, expect to see demand and activity begin to increase again in 2010.

The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range

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