Moishe Alexander and Canadian Funding Corporation Review CMHC Reports

Posted by Moshe Alexander

Demand for rental apartments in both the Kitchener and Guelph CMAs decreased in October 2009. The average vacancy rate for privately- initiated rental apartments in the Kitchener CMA increased to 3.3 per cent from 1.8 per cent in October 2008. In the Guelph CMA, the vacancy rate rose to 4.1 per cent from 2.3 per cent last October.

A number of factors, both demographic and economic, contributed to the decreased demand for rental accommodations. These factors included renters moving to home ownership, higher unemployment and lower demand from young adults. Although the main reason vacancy rates were up was a decrease in demand, additional rental housing which was not completed in time to be included in the survey but was available for occupancy before the survey also had some impact.

Many first-time buyers made the move to home ownership and vacated their rental units in 2009. Mortgage rates decreased to their lowest level in more than 60 years. With the uncertainty in the economy, home price growth was limited. As a result, mortgage carrying costs became more affordable. First-time homebuyers who had remained on the sidelines in the final quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, propelled sales of existing homes to strong levels in the second and third quarters of 2009.

Employment in the Kitchener CMA for the first three quarters of 2009 declined by 1.4 per cent, or 3,600 jobs, compared to the same period in 2008. All of the jobs lost were full time. Unemployment increased across all age groups. The unemployment rate for youth jumped to 15 per cent. Those in the 15-24 age group typically rent. Consequently, many youth chose to remain at home or double up with other rental households, resulting in more vacant units.

In the Guelph CMA, employment decreased by 2,600 jobs, or 3.4 per cent. As in the Kitchener CMA, unemployment increased across all age groups. Some rental households doubled up or made alternative living arrangements. As a result, fewer rental units were occupied.

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While construction is up by 2 per cent for the first nine months of the year in the Quebec part of the Ottawa-Gatineau census metropolitan area (CMA), 2009 will end with fewer housing starts than in 2008. It is expected that a total of 3,000 units While construction is up by 2 per cent for the first nine months of the year in the Quebec part of the Ottawa-Gatineau census metropolitan area (CMA), 2009 will end with fewer housing starts than in 2008. It is expected that a total of 3,000 units

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Posted by Moishe Alexander

Provincially, the labour force and employment are expected to rise moderately in 2010, while in Halifax, growth is expected to be more significant. Halifax will continue to see steady growth in the economy and this will translate into improving conditions in the local housing market.

The local economy in Halifax continues to benefit from positive migration patterns. With more people moving to Halifax than moving away, the labour force has been growing. Almost every month of 2009 saw greater numbers of people looking for work in Halifax and by the summer months there were more people looking for work than ever before. Fortunately, most of these job seekers found employment which resulted in a record level of employment in Halifax. Employment was up by three to four per cent in 2009 compared to 2008. Employment may ease off of record highs during certain months in the forecast period, however overall employment is expected to continue to show positive growth in 2010.

Employment is being bolstered by the construction industry and the public sector. Large construction projects and large military contracts have contributed to strength in these industries. The largest employment sector in Halifax is the services sector which has seen slow but steady growth of approximately three per cent so far in 2009. The opening of some new or trendy retail stores has contributed to the growth in this sector. Areas experiencing weakness are the finance, trade and primary goods sectors which are struggling due to global economic issues and reduced demand for exports. Wages are also expected to continue to move upwards. As of August 2009, seasonally adjusted average weekly earnings have risen by over six per cent compared to the 2008 average. Average earnings now exceed $39,000 per year compared to just under $37,000 in 2008.

Record employment levels and wages  will be supportive of housing activity in Halifax for the remainder of 2009 and 2010. Continued in-migration and near historic low interest rates will also contribute to increased housing demand in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM). In the near-term, some lingering effects of the weakened economy will keep demand subdued. In the medium- term, however, expect to see demand and activity begin to increase again in 2010.

The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range

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