Posted by Moishe Alexander
New Home Construction Not as Robust as Before New home construction in Barrie will come in at a lower tally than last year. Single-detached homes will continue to make up the majority of a smaller new construction pie. Next year, new construction will increase from this year, as the economy begins to improve. From 2010 to 2013 new housing construction will grow at a relatively subdued level. With less demand for new housing, the average price of a newly constructed single- detached home will decrease.
The number of new housing starts is expected to come in significantly lower this year than last year’s total tally. Total starts in Barrie Census Metropolitan Area (from here on referred to as CMA) will come in at 340, less than a quarter of the homes built in 2008. Next year total starts will begin to improve and come in at close to 390 units. Currently, the number of homes under construction and inventories of new unsold homes are both declining. Consequently, improving demand next year will translate into starts fairly quickly.
Even though apartments, and to a lesser degree row homes, are expected to be significant components of all new construction in the CMA, single-detached homes will continue to be the most preferred type of housing built in Barrie. Single- detached starts will make up close to 61 per cent of all new construction this year in the CMA while apartments will make up close to 27 per cent and row homes 12 per cent. Looking forward, the recovery is expected to be slow. With lower new housing demand, as a result of the economic downturn, and the slow recovery, the average price of a new single-detached home is expected to drop from last year and finish this year at $340,000 a drop of five per cent. In 2010, as recovery strengthens the average price of a new single-detached home will be negative but by a much lesser margin than this year. Resale Homes Market Resale Market Relatively Unscathed by Downturn homes market will fare better this year.) The SNLR (Sales-to-New- Listings-Ratio) will remain near the upper bound of balanced market territory. The average price of an existing home will grow modestly this year and at the rate of inflation next year. Housing affordability will deteriorate slightly as modest price growth and increasing mortgage rates raise monthly carrying costs. In spite of the slight deterioration in affordability, the Barrie CMA will remain an attractive housing market when compared to other urban centres.
Both sales and new listings of existing homes will lose some strength from last year.(In comparison to the new homes market though, the existing homes market will fare better this year.) The SNLR (Sales-to-New- Listings-Ratio) will remain near the upper bound of balanced market territory. The average price of an existing home will grow modestly this year and at the rate of inflation next year. Housing affordability will deteriorate slightly as modest price growth and increasing mortgage rates raise monthly carrying costs. In spite othe slight deterioration in affordability, the Barrie CMA will remain an attractive housing market when compared to other urban centres.
Similar to the new home market, the resale home market will also feel the effects of the economic downturn. This year total existing home sales will end the year close to 3,900, a drop from last year of five per cent. In 2010, existing home sales will decrease slightly once again but by a lesser amount than this year as the market will begin showing signs of recovery and stabilization.