Archive for November 3rd, 2009

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Migration to Windsor

Comments: 0November 3rd, 2009 by admin

Posted by Moishe Alexander

Net migration is forecast to be negative in 2009 in the Windsor CMA. More people have moved away from the area each year since 2004 than have relocated to Windsor. This is expected to continue in 2010 with a net loss of nearly 1,400 people. The first impact can be seen in the rental market as renters are more mobile than owners.

In the rental market the average apartment vacancy rate in Windsor was 14.8 per cent in October 2008 and is expected to remain high in 2009. Contributing to the high vacancy rate are several factors such as higher unemployment among youth, out-migration in search of employment, and competition from homeownership. The average two bedroom apartment rent is forecast to remain flat in October 2009, as landlords refrain from raising rents in an effort to retain existing tenants.

The Windsor-Essex area is marketing the region abroad to boomers and retirees as an exceptional place to live. Visitors and residents extol the many recreational opportunities, affordable housing and temperate climate of the area in the hopes of attracting new residents.

Employment is a key factor supporting housing demand. Windsor’s employment levels have not dropped as sharply as anticipated. The area may be able to get through 2009 with less than a five per cent decline in jobs. However, combined with losses over the past couple of years the workforce has shrunk by almost eight per cent since 2006. Continuing economic weakness in the U.S. and the appreciating value of Canadian dollar are ongoing challenges for the manufacturing and tourism sectors. In turn this has had a detrimental affect on local consumer spending.

The economy has been slow to diversify, however some inroads are appearing. Interest in alternative green energy such as wind and solar are providing new manufacturin opportunities.Non-residential construction employment will grow in 2010 due to investment in major capital projects in the area.

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Posted in CMHC, Canada

Long Term Economic Prospects Support Housing Market

Comments: 0November 3rd, 2009 by admin

The residential housing market will remain strong in historical terms this year and next. A moderate rebound is expected to push total provincial housing starts higher in 2010, to 3,525 units, following a decline to 3,400 in 2009.

Economic growth in New Brunswick was limited in 2009 as exporters in the province continued to face a decline in global demand for commodities. Fewer exports have also had a negative impact on the manufacturing and transportation sectors in the province. No significant increase in economic growth is expected until a global recovery begins to take hold in 2010.

Despite economic uncertainty, the long term outlook for New Brunswick contains positive elements which will serve to support housing demand. For example, the last provincial budget for 2009-2010 focused on job creation, with $1.2 billion set aside for infrastructure programs and support to New Brunswick businesses. Notwithstanding, the return of sustained economic expansion will rely heavily on capital investment.

Employment in New Brunswick’s three large urban centres has been stable in 2009. As a result, positive net-migration continued in both Moncton and Fredericton, as each centre benefited from solid service, retail and construction sectors. Conversely, in-migration in Saint John, which has been muted in recent years, is not likely to change during the remainder of this year and in 2010. Reduced housing demand in all three centres has led to a lower level of activity in both the new home and resale markets. Employment levels are expected to remain flat in 2010; however, this should not significantly affect the housing market.

The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range.

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Posted in CMHC, Canada, New Home Starts, Ontario, affordable housing

Continued Growth in Employment to be Supportive of Housing

Comments: 0November 3rd, 2009 by admin

Posted by Moishe Alexander

Provincially, the labour force and employment are expected to rise moderately in 2010, while in Halifax, growth is expected to be more significant. Halifax will continue to see steady growth in the economy and this will translate into improving conditions in the local housing market.

The local economy in Halifax continues to benefit from positive migration patterns. With more people moving to Halifax than moving away, the labour force has been growing. Almost every month of 2009 saw greater numbers of people looking for work in Halifax and by the summer months there were more people looking for work than ever before. Fortunately, most of these job seekers found employment which resulted in a record level of employment in Halifax. Employment was up by three to four per cent in 2009 compared to 2008. Employment may ease off of record highs during certain months in the forecast period, however overall employment is expected to continue to show positive growth in 2010.

Employment is being bolstered by the construction industry and the public sector. Large construction projects and large military contracts have contributed to strength in these industries. The largest employment sector in Halifax is the services sector which has seen slow but steady growth of approximately three per cent so far in 2009. The opening of some new or trendy retail stores has contributed to the growth in this sector. Areas experiencing weakness are the finance, trade and primary goods sectors which are struggling due to global economic issues and reduced demand for exports. Wages are also expected to continue to move upwards. As of August 2009, seasonally adjusted average weekly earnings have risen by over six per cent compared to the 2008 average. Average earnings now exceed $39,000 per year compared to just under $37,000 in 2008.

Record employment levels and wages  will be supportive of housing activity in Halifax for the remainder of 2009 and 2010. Continued in-migration and near historic low interest rates will also contribute to increased housing demand in the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM). In the near-term, some lingering effects of the weakened economy will keep demand subdued. In the medium- term, however, expect to see demand and activity begin to increase again in 2010.

The Bank of Canada cut the Target for the Overnight Rate in the early months of 2009. The rate was 1.50 per cent at the start of 2009 and has since fallen to 0.25 per cent. The Bank has committed to keeping this rate at 0.25 per cent through the middle of 2010 unless inflationary pressures warrant an increase.

Mortgage rates have fallen over the course of 2009, but are now expected to remain relatively stable for the rest of the year. Posted mortgage rates will gradually increase through 2010, but will do so at a slow pace. For 2010, the one-year posted mortgage rate will be in the 3.50-4.25 per cent range, while three and five-year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 4.50-6.00 per cent range

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Posted in Alberta, Housing Market, New Home Starts, elevator replacement, lighting upgrades, moishe alexander

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